There were plenty of close calls this past week that nearly caused the BCS to blowup. There were a few close calls like Alabama pulling away late to beat Mississippi State, Northern Illinois exploding late to blowout Ball State, Auburn needing a miracle hail mary to defeat Georgia but the actual game to cause trouble was USC upsetting soon-to-be then-No. 5 Stanford Cardinal.
Stanford's loss will have more of an impact of them falling out of the top-five, but their lost opens the door for the possibility of Baylor to jump Ohio State and become the No. 3 team in the BCS. Right now the difference is .0308 in favor of Ohio State. However, Baylor beat Texas Tech who has seven wins, while Ohio State beat a three-win Illinois team. The difference between the two is close enough for a few more votes in the coaches and Harris poll for Baylor and a likely small bump in the computer rankings should be enough to put them one Alabama or Florida State loss from playing in the final BCS title game.
As for Fresno State, they had the week off and should still be in pretty good shape for earning a BCS bowl bid. Northern Illinois might gain some ground since Ball State was a 9-1 team prior to them getting a win. I also think that Michigan State might leapfrog over Northern Illinois because of how the computers
Here are my projected BCS standings:
- Florida State
- Ohio State
- Texas A&M
- South Carolina
- Oklahoma State
- Fresno State
- Northern Illinois
- Michigan State
As for my BCS bowl projections which are for the end of season, here is what I have. Also here is the order of picks after the bowls that lose a team get their replacement: Orange, Sugar and Fiesta.
BCS title game: Alabama vs. Florida State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Central Florida
Sugar Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Fresno State
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Stanford
Fresno State to the Sugar and not Fiesta is based on Texas A&M selling a lot of tickets since New Orleans is a reasonably short drive from the College State/Houston-area. No need to take UCF team for ticket sales, why not take the bigger name (however slightly) with Fresno State.
The official BCS standings will be released at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.