If the Mountain West really wants a presence in Texas, then the conference needs to do it right, and jump headfirst into the state.
I am vehemently against the idea of teams on "geographic islands" in conferences (other than Hawaii, which obviously has no choice). I don't like the idea of Houston being in the Mountain West if their nearest neighbor is either UTEP or New Mexico. Houston + SMU would be better, although they would only "have each other" in that scenario. Three teams in the heart of Texas would be even better than just two.
I'm making the following assumptions regarding this expansion plan:
(1) San Diego State returns (stays) for the 2013 season as a full member;
(2) BYU decides not to rejoin the Mountain West;
(3) the current Mountain West schools agree that (A) they want to have a good presence in Texas, (B) they are ok with two football divisions whose teams rarely meet; and (C) they are ok with playing most conference basketball opponents less often than they do now.
Without all of the above, the plan is unlikely to work well.
The WAC did try an expansion plan into Texas in the mid-1990s and failed miserably. Why won't this be the same?
(1) Since Utah and BYU would not be part of this, there is much less disruption to pre-existing rivalries;
(2) there are sensible geographic lines that can be drawn to divide the divisions (namely eastern & western sides of the Rockies);
(3) Hawaii is only part of the Mountain West for football, so Olympic sports travel time & costs to Hawaii are not an issue;
(4) the massive failure of the pod/quadrant system that the WAC created would not be repeated;
(5) there would be a group of Texas teams that are similar in makeup to the existing Mountain West teams, which was not the case with the WAC expansion (more on this later).
Two keys to a new setup:
(1) Football would be set up with two permanent 8-team divisions that essentially operate separately. Each team would have eight conference football games, seven of which would be in the same division (only one crossover conference game). Teams would face seven opponents every single year. Ideally, teams would be allowed to schedule non-division Mountain West opponents separately as "non-conference" games if desired.
(2) Basketball would not use the same divisions as football. It would either use three 5-team geographic divisions (West, North, South) or create a partner system for scheduling, depending on the preferences of the members. An 18-game schedule could be set up with 15 teams so that everyone plays every other team at least once.
These would be your Mountain West football divisions:
West Division:
Hawaii
San Diego State
Fresno State
San Jose State
Nevada
UNLV
Boise State
Utah State
East Division:
Wyoming
Colorado State
Air Force
New Mexico
UTEP
UTSA
North Texas
Houston
Here are some possible questions and answers:
Why North Texas over SMU? (and how is this different from the WAC's eastward expansion?)
North Texas and SMU both have had some success in football over the years, as well as some struggles. SMU was flying high as a national power before its death penalty in the 1980s, but has struggled a lot since then. North Texas has won 24 conference titles in football over the years, but has struggled in the last few. SMU and UNT's stadiums are roughly the same size (both hold just over 30,000), and both stadiums are relatively new (SMU: 2000, UNT: 2011) and have potential for future expansion.
But one big difference between the two is the size of the schools. The more students that attend the school, the larger base of support - both in terms of current students and alumni - the school has to draw on for support. And North Texas wins this fight easily. SMU has 6,221 undergraduates. North Texas has 28,325.
Going back to our problems with the old WAC, let's look at the four "eastern" teams that were chosen: Tulsa, TCU, SMU and Rice. All of these are good schools, but they are also small private shcools, which was is out of character with most of the WAC at the time, and is out of character with most of the current Mountain West. BYU was and is a private school, but it is also a large school with many alumni and a national identity.
Comparing the enrollment of the four TX/OK WAC schools and the four TX schools proposed above, the differences in enrollment are massive.
Current undergraduate enrollment of the four TX/OK WAC schools from the mid-90s:
Tulsa: 3,004
Rice: 3,755
SMU: 6,221
TCU: 8,229
Total: 21,209
Current undergraduate enrollment of the four proposed Texas schools:
UTEP: 18,975
UTSA: 26,268
North Texas: 28,325
Houston: 31,764
Total: 105,332
The four state schools have roughly five times the enrollment of the four private schools that moved to the WAC. This is a significant difference. (As an aside, SMU has apparently expressed a lack of interest in joining the Mountain West Conference, so the UNT vs. SMU argument may not be necessary. But it is important to note the differences between the past WAC expansion and the potential Mountain West expansion into Texas.)
What do each of these Texas schools have to offer?
Houston has had recent football success, having a top-10 ranking and nearly becoming a BCS buster in 2011, before their defeat against Southern Miss in the 2011 C-USA championship game. The men's basketball team has not had great success recently, but does have a rich history, including 19 NCAA tournament appearances and five Final Four appearances. They are also currently in the process of building a new football stadium on campus.
As folks have mentioned, UTSA has a ton of potential. Currently, they are using the Alamodome, but they have a large plan to expand their athletic facilities, including the construction of an on-campus stadium and new basketball arena.
North Texas, as mentioned before, has had football success. It also has improved its facilities in recent years, including the 2011 opening of Apogee Stadium, and has additional plans for other athletic facilities.
UTEP is actually a perfect fit for this new East Division of the Mountain West. It has the El Paso market to itself, with no major FBS programs or pro sports as competition. When folks in town want to see a basketball or a football game, they go watch the Miners, and they support the teams well. Not only would they have their old rivalries restored with their former WAC rivals, but they would also be able to play games in the rest of Texas. The UTEP alumni in San Antonio, Dallas and Houston attending UTEP road games will not only help UTEP but will also help those teams by having more fans attend their games.
The presence of North Texas, UTSA and Houston in the same conference (and same division) helps to strengthen each of them. Each of them is within a five-hour drive from the others. UTEP also helps, given its alumni in the rest of the state, as well as the strengthening of the "Texas identity" of the division.
Why might the Mountain West be better this way?
Each division would have its own strong identity in this plan, anchored in a very large state.
The West Division is composed of teams from Hawaii, California, Nevada, Idaho and Utah. The East Division has teams from Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico and Texas. Both divisions have a strong presence in big recruiting states - 3 teams are in California and 4 teams are in Texas.
Nearly all of the schools are medium-sized or large-sized state institutions. Air Force is the exception, and the smallest school for enrollments, but it is a service academy and not a small private school. That being the case, it has a larger fan base than nearly any small private school out there (BYU is a private school with a large audience, but is definitely not a small school).
12 of the 16 schools have an undergraduate enrollment of at least 17,000. The three state schools with less than that are still over 10,000.
12 of the 16 schools have a 2011 financial endowment of at least $100 million. The three of the state schools with less each have at least $70 million, and the Air Force has the backing of the US government.
For a "quick stats" look at the schools, here is a snapshot of each school (information from US News & World Report):
West Division:
Hawaii
Undergraduate Enrollment: 14,402
Founded: 1907
2011 Endowment: $183 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #156
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
San Diego State
Undergraduate Enrollment: 26,371
Founded: 1897
2011 Endowment: $142 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #165
Location: San Diego, California
Fresno State
Undergraduate Enrollment: 19,132
Founded: 1911
2011 Endowment: $119 million
USNWR Rank: Regional Universities (West), #38
Location: Fresno, California
San Jose State
Undergraduate Enrollment: 24,804
Founded: 1857
2011 Endowment: $74 million
USNWR Rank: Regional Universities (West), #38
Location: San Jose, California
Nevada
Undergraduate Enrollment: 14,820
Founded: 1864
2011 Endowment: $228 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #189
Location: Reno, Nevada
UNLV
Undergraduate Enrollment: 22,138
Founded: 1957
2011 Endowment: $152 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, Tier 2
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Boise State
Undergraduate Enrollment: 17,369
Founded: 1932
2011 Endowment: $75 million
USNWR Rank: Regional Universities (West), #62
Location: Boise, Idaho
Utah State
Undergraduate Enrollment: 23,279
Founded: 1888
2011 Endowment: $209 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #174
Location: Logan, Utah
East Division:
Wyoming
Undergraduate Enrollment: 10,163
Founded: 1886
2011 Endowment: $353 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #156
Location: Laramie, Wyoming
Colorado State
Undergraduate Enrollment: 23,261
Founded: 1870
2011 Endowment: $234 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #134
Location: Fort Collins, Colorado
Air Force
Undergraduate Enrollment: 4,413
Founded: 1954
2011 Endowment: $56 million
USNWR Rank: National Liberal Arts Colleges, #31
Location: Colorado Springs, Colorado
New Mexico
Undergraduate Enrollment: 22,643
Founded: 1889
2011 Endowment: $349 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #179
Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico
UTEP
Undergraduate Enrollment: 18,975
Founded: 1913
2011 Endowment: $174 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, Tier 2
Location: El Paso, Texas
UTSA
Undergraduate Enrollment: 26,268
Founded: 1969
2011 Endowment: $81 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, Tier 2
Location: San Antonio, Texas
North Texas
Undergraduate Enrollment: 28,325
Founded: 1890
2011 Endowment: $102 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, Tier 2
Location: Denton, Texas
Houston
Undergraduate Enrollment: 31,764
Founded: 1927
2011 Endowment: $559 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #184
Location: Houston, Texas
Ranked by undergraduate enrollment:
Houston: 31,764
North Texas: 28,325
San Diego State: 26,371
UTSA: 26,268
San Jose State: 24,804
Utah State: 23,279
Colorado State: 23,261
New Mexico: 22,643
UNLV: 22,138
Fresno State: 19,132
UTEP: 18,975
Boise State: 17,369
Nevada: 14,820
Hawaii: 14,402
Wyoming: 10,163
Air Force: 4,413
Ranked by 2011 financial endowment:
Houston: $559 million
Wyoming: $353 million
New Mexico: $349 million
Colorado State: $234 million
Nevada: $228 million
Utah State: $209 million
Hawaii: $183 million
UTEP: $174 million
UNLV: $152 million
San Diego State: $142 million
Fresno State: $119 million
North Texas: $102 million
UTSA: $81 million
Boise State: $75 million
San Jose State: $74 million
Air Force: $56 million
School ranking:
Colorado State
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #134
Wyoming
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #156
Hawaii
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #156
San Diego State
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #165
Utah State
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #174
New Mexico
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #179
Houston
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #184
Nevada
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #189
UNLV
USNWR Rank: National Universities, Tier 2
UTEP
USNWR Rank: National Universities, Tier 2
UTSA
USNWR Rank: National Universities, Tier 2
North Texas
USNWR Rank: National Universities, Tier 2
Air Force
USNWR Rank: National Liberal Arts Colleges, #31
Fresno State
USNWR Rank: Regional Universities (West), #38
San Jose State
USNWR Rank: Regional Universities (West), #38
Boise State
USNWR Rank: Regional Universities (West), #62
For the sake of information, here are similar stats for some other "potentially available" FBS schools in the same region:
BYU
Undergraduate Enrollment: 30,684
Founded: 1875
2011 Endowment: $920 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #68
Location: Provo, Utah
SMU
Undergraduate Enrollment: 6,221
Founded: 1911
2011 Endowment: $1.19 billion
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #58
Location: Dallas, Texas
Texas State
Undergraduate Enrollment: 28,959
Founded: 1899
2011 Endowment: $111 million
USNWR Rank: Regional Universities (West), #46
Location: San Marcos, Texas
New Mexico State
Undergraduate Enrollment: 14,495
Founded: 1888
2011 Endowment: $94 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #189
Location: Las Cruces, New Mexico
Rice
Undergraduate Enrollment: 3,755
Founded: 1912
2011 Endowment: $4.498 billion
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #17
Location: Houston, Texas
Tulsa
Undergraduate Enrollment: 3,004
Founded: 1894
2011 Endowment: $817 million
USNWR Rank: National Universities, #83
Location: Tulsa, Oklahoma
BYU is obviously the biggest prize because of its historic success and large national following. If the Mountain West expanded to 16 (using the plan above) and BYU later wanted to return as #17, they'd have to be considered ... and perhaps at that time SMU could join the league too.
Assuming that BYU is happy with its Olympic sports in the West Coast Conference and its football independence, they are not an option. But moving into Texas is a potential option. And it doesn't necessarily have to happen immediately. Taking UTEP, UTSA, North Texas and Houston as a group could happen soon or possibly later in the future, after the league has stabilized at 12 teams. Ideally, an expansion like this would coincide with a new conference television agreement.
There are advantages to having a 12-team conference, and there are also advantages to having a 16-team conference with a good Texas presence. What direction the Mountain West decides to go in remains to be seen.


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