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SMU & Houston


Where should SMU & Houston go to? Big East? MWC? CUSA? Things to consider:

1. Money. Payout from the Big East is uncertain. Payout from the MWC will be about $1M. Payout for CUSA will be about $2M.

2. Competition. I am using mcubed analysis of the team's entire team's competitive history. Lower is better.

Big East

Cincinnati = 66.4

UConn = 71

USF = 50.1

Temple = 75.7

Navy = 68.9

Memphis = 69.8

ECU = 61.5

Tulane = 82

Central Florida = 60.2

Big East average = 67.2888888888889

*

MWC

Air Force = 57

Boise St. = 34

Colorado St. = 71

Fresno St. = 67

Hawaii = 64

Nevada = 65

New Mexico = 76

San Diego St. = 54

San Jose St. = 77

UNLV = 81

Utah St. = 69

Wyoming = 61

MWC average = 64.6666666666667

*

CUSA

Southern Mississippi = 53.4

Louisiana Tech = 66.6

Rice = 82.7

UAB = 89.6

UTSA = ?

Marshall = 82.7

Tulsa = 63.5

UN Charlotte = ?

UTEP = 87.6

Old Dominion = ?

Middle Tennessee = 86.5

North Texas = 81.9

Florida International = 94.5

Florida Atlantic = 88.9

CUSA average = 79.8090909090909

3. Fan Base. For this I am using Nate Silver's analysis in the NYT from 2011.

Big East

Cincinnati = 322757

UConn = 618724

USF 5 = 520627

Temple = 226483

Navy = 237222

Memphis = 235656

ECU = 348391

Tulane = 101701

Central Florida 6 = 506679

Big East total = 3,118,240

*

MWC

Air Force = 213946

Boise St. = 483489

Colorado St. = 199506

Fresno St. = 251472

Hawaii = 295024

Nevada = 187221

New Mexico = 171154

San Diego St. = 242126

San Jose St. = 60292

UNLV = 136687

Utah St. = 65129

Wyoming = 302935

MWC total = 2,608,981

*

CUSA

Southern Mississippi = 361613

Louisiana Tech = 179991

Rice = 126901

UAB = 236825

UTSA = ?

Marshall = 225810

Tulsa = 119686

UN Charlotte = ?

UTEP = 114592

Old Dominion = ?

Middle Tennessee = 169621

North Texas = 202188

Florida International = 178669

Florida Atlantic = 145469

CUSA total = 2,061,365

4. Regional Population growth. All of the above are based on the past. Now I want to factor in regional population growth to suggest future movement. To simplify things I will just look at the states within the conference congressional seats gains and losses from the 2010 census.

Big East = net -2 (+2 for Florida, -2 for Ohio, -1 for Louisiana, and -1 for Pennsylvania)

MWC = net +2 (+1 for Nevada and +1 for Utah)

CUSA = net +1 (+2 for Florida and -1 for Louisiana; Texas was not included as this is the native state for SMU and Houston)

Thus far the Big East has the edge in fan numbers (#3), the MWC has the edge in competition (#2) and regional population growth (#4), and CUSA has the tentative edge in payout (#1).

5. Unqualifiable. Food for thought.

Big East: instability.

MWC: access to the Pac12 by playing in Pac12 states of Colorado, Utah, and California. There is no way the B1G, Big XII or the SEC will consider either SMU or Houston. The ACC is just too far away, and the AAU North Carolina schools along with UVA will be too snobby to invite either programs. The Pac12 is hemmed in with limited options for expansion and should they want Texas, SMU and Houston could both be considered. In addition, the Bowl payout deal from the MWC gives the competing team a 50% share.

CUSA: ego of having to swallow their pride and go back to CUSA could be a factor. However, there are some good rivalry in CUSA like Tulsa, Southern Mississippi and Louisiana Tech that could be a draw.

Overall I think the MWC has a slight edge of appeal for SMU and Houston over the Big East and CUSA.

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