The 2014 Mountain West title game features the two best teams in San Diego State and New Mexico, as it should be. The prior two matchups between the Aztecs and Lobos were hard fought and close games, and that is why the oddsmakers make San Diego State just a 1.5-point favorite.
That small margin for San Diego State makes a lot of sense as these two teams are so closely matched, despite the teams playing a different style of play.
TeamRankings.com gives San Diego State just over a 55 percent chance to win after going through approximately 10,000 simulations.
|1||San Diego State||--||--||--||56.81%|
One item to watch out for is the coaching matchup, because in the prior game at Viejas Arena, it was San Diego State's Steve Fisher who went with an athletic lineup to counter Craig Neal and his big lineup to amazing results. Fisher also used a 1-3-1 zone to limit the down low play of Alex Kirk and Cameron Bairstow.
If Fisher goes to his smaller and scoring lineup during this game, expect Neal to look to his bench sooner if he can't take advantage of the size advantage. This game has the chance to be a chess match between the veteran in Fisher and the rookie head coach in Neal.