Statistics mean a lot. As do betting odds, to certain people at least. You always have to take into consideration that, in college football, much like the NFL, anything can happen at anytime. Most of the time, the lines are somewhere have a standard deviation of about 3-5 points, which if you think about it, is less than one touchdown. How many of those did we see last week? Games that just barely covered or just missed the spread. Unlike the gambler, the players and coaches could care less about the spread, they just want to win. Remember that when placing your bets...
If you've just started reading, and missed what this is all about, here's an introduction:
Here we are, the college football season upon us! This can mean many things, and it is no joke that one of those things is gambling. We here at the Mountain West Connection don't advocate that you gamble, but if you do, research your teams before you pick-em.
My goal is to help you determine who you should bet for/against and how much you should wager. Note, please take what advice I give with a grain of salt, that way if you should lose a bet, you're only losing a grain of salt. Spreads, analysis and wagers are after the jump.
Last week: 7-3 on the opening lines which i used, theoretically 6-4 from when i posted the story.
Overall: 7-3, 6-4
Continue reading after the jump:
Editor's note: all spreads are coming from Odds Shark . Please also note that the the favored team will have the spread points. All times are in Pacific Standard Time.
9/8/12, 12:30 PM - Air Force at Michigan (-21), O/U-60.5 -- On any other week, I would've picked Michigan. HOWEVER, Michigan just got their ass handed to them by Alabama by a tune of 41-14 and Air Force found a new weapon in the running arsenal called Cody Getz. This game's in Ann Arbor? Well this should get interesting...
My Pick - America beats the spread - If I had more than one beer tonight, I would've taken this bet one step further. Bet a nickel, and hope that the doctor is IN. Brady Hoke has to calm down his troops and glue Denard Robinson back together again for this game. Air Force should beat the spread, and if the chips fall their way, might win one in the Big House. But come on, a severe underdog winning in Ann Arbor? That's crazy talk...
9/8/12, 12:35 PM - South Florida at Nevada, O/U-55 -- No, there was no typo. That game does not have a "favorite" due to the oddsmakers being confused on two things: 1. who's in the better conference and 2. who is actually the better team. That zero spot was opening, the line is now 1.5 in favor of Nevada. Yes that is 1.5 points, the same number like Chris Ault's height in meters. Once again, the oddsmakers forget, this game is in Mackey Stadium.
My Pick - Nevada, duh! - Maybe this is just me being arrogant, but I feel like this could be a 10 point or more victory for the Wolfpack. Please bet a six pack of Simpler Times Lager, the greatest of the 2-buck-chuck (Seriously, a six-pack for $2.99!).
9/8/12, 1:00 PM - Toledo at Wyoming (-2), O/U-57-- And now for your "Sad Pick of the Week." Toledo couldn't completely ruin RichRod's premiere despite leading most of the game. Wyoming on the other hand, doesn't have a run defense, and the Pokes are completely dependent on Smith being the sole offense of the team. MACTION does not know what a "height above sea level" is though.
My Pick - Wyoming - This will be one of the few times this year where Wyoming will be listed in the "Favorite" tag. Look for them to use that to their advantage. Please bet a barrel...Cowboy fans know why.
9/8/12, 3:30 PM - Fresno State at Oregon (-33), O/U-73.5 -- Oregon's Defensive Coordinator, Nick Aliotti was pissed at his 10th string defense last week for giving up 31 points to Arky State (he pulled his 1st and 2nd stringers halfway through the second quarter). Doesn't matter if Fresno State is infinitely better than the Ducks, it will take a complete smiting of the Oregon team from COTG for the Bulldogs to win this game.
My Pick - Oregon - I remove my cap in tribute to the 2012 Bulldog team, who passed away from the Blur Offense. The Ducks will "only" put up 35 on Fresno at halftime, which leaves the rest of the second half for the team to hit the 50-spot. Bet a Bulldog fan a bottle of cheap whisky...they'll need it.
9/8/12, 4:00 PM - North Dakota St. at Colorado State, bets are off -- SSSSSSSSSSSSSSNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUDDDDDDDD! Okay I'm done.
My Pick - Colorado State - ...because mispronouncing CSU as CUS or SUC, isn't as fun as mispronouncing NDSU as SNUD... The real losers of this game are those NDSU fans who realize that they still live in North Dakota, in Fargo of all places. I mean, that's like living in Bakersfield... Bet a liter of Cola.
9/8/12, 4:00 PM - Army at San Diego State (-5.5), O/U-49 -- Rocky Long better have a decent gameplan this week. Last week's plan didn't work so well, and I still don't trust him after he said he wouldn't punt and he did. He has done very little to earn my trust again, and he will never win my heart after that betrayal. Plus, Army has a quarterback named Trent Steelman. Advantage: Army
My Pick - America, Part II - If the Aztecs show any signs of last week's gameplan, they might as well throw in the towel for the season, because frankly, last weekend's performance was horrible. Please bet your fish tacos.
9/8/12, 5:00 PM - New Mexico at Texas (-37), O/U-53.5 -- FOOTBAW BAWB looked semi-competent to decent, while Texas looked...I'm just kidding, nobody actually SAW Texas play. I'm not sure what else to say, except for the fact that we'll get to see New Mexico play an actual football team this week, one with a very good rushing offense.
My Pick - Texas - What will be interesting to see is the final score of this game. If the Lobos are really as competent on offense as they showed last week, I could see the combined score getting to nearly 100 points. Please bet your subscription to Longhorn Network. You don't have one? Um, well then bet your old slide-rule, because it's about as relevant and valuable as LHN.
9/8/12, 7:00 PM - Northern Arizona at UNLV, bets are off -- Did we actually see UNLV have a team last week? One that could hang with a B1G team in four quarters plus a couple of overtimes? If there really is fight in this Rebel team, then this should be an easy win for UNLV.
My Pick - UNLV - The Rebels should have no problem taking care of the Lumberjacks, even if NAU starts their 20-foot statue. Please bet Major Kong's Survival Kit from Dr. Strangelove (if you don't know the quote, go look it up, those of you who do know the quote, know why I can't post it in the story), and go have a good time in Vegas with all that stuff.