On occasion, no matter what you do, no matter how hard you analyze, you're still wrong. It's the little team that is prepared, still knowing they're going to most likely lose. It's the big team, who overlooks the smaller team in favor for their rivalry game the week after. Last week, after going an atrocious 2-6 on picks, I came to the realization that college football can not be easily predicted, and therefore, I lost.
Last Week: 2-6
Lines after the Jump
Editor's note: all spreads are coming from Odds Shark. Please also note that the the favored team will have the spread points. All times are in Pacific Standard Time.
9/28/2012, 5:00 PM Hawaii at BYU (-28.5), O/U-51 -- This game is at Lavell Edwards Stadium, so noise shouldn't be a factor, RIGHT BYU? After an embarrassing performance from both teams last week, this game will definitely be entertaining to watch, as Taysom Hill will most likely take the reigns of the BYU offense, and Norm Chow will do Norm Chow things.
My Pick - Hawaii covers - Consider this your stupid pick of the week. Four touchdowns is pretty steep for BYU, even with a bad Hawaii team. How bad is Washington State compared to Hawaii, we'll find out, but my guess is that they're equally bad. Bet a Kona Brewery beer of your choice.
9/29/2012, 11:00 AM Nevada (-21) at Texas State, O/U-64 -- See, now Vegas is just baiting. This should be an easy cover for Nevada, but somehow it isn't. Just because they blew the Warriors out last week doesn't mean they'll do the same to the Bobcats. Note: this is because I still think Nevada's defense is atrociously bad and have yet to be convinced otherwise.
My Pick - Nevada covers - That being said, if Nevada doesn't blow the FBS newcomers out by at least 21, I'll be very confused and outraged. Bet a box of PopTarts for this late morning game.
9/29/2012, 11:00 AM Colorado State at Air Force (-14.5), O/U-56.5 -- Yet another game that I think should be easier to pick than it actually is. You can thank UNLV for screwing with my head. What we do know for sure: Colorado State is just horribawful.
My Pick - Colorado State beats the spread - Remember that "sometimes you lose" rule I talked about above? Put it in play here. Utah State couldn't beat the 14 point spread, what makes you think Air Force can? Bet some Twinkies.
9/29/2012, 12:30 PM San Jose State at Navy (-1.5), O/U-54.5 -- WHAT WERE YOU THINKING VEGAS? The spread is now 2.5-3 in the Spartans favor, BUT STILL? Navy is bad this year. Forget what I said about bet on America, because the rule does not apply here.
My Pick - SJSU to cover - This should be a no brainer. Remember, the Spartans are four points away from being undefeated. Bet a season of NCIS on DVD, because if Navy wins, you're going to be investigating how they did that.
9/29/2012, 3:00 PM Boise State (-30) at New Mexico, O/U-50 -- Nope, just nope. I have almost zero confidence Boise State can cover this. Any other year, I would say yes, but not with this offense.
My Pick - New Mexico beats the spread (ugh) - It's pretty bad when I seriously don't think Boise State can cover. Go ahead and bet a sack of Idaho Potatos.
9/29/2012, 5:00 PM UNLV at Utah State (-18), O/U-51 -- The Utah Aggies are a missed field goal away from being undefeated (how many times have I heard that as a BSU fan?) and should have no problem against UNLV. Though Nick Sherry and Tim Cornett might have something to say about that...
My Pick - Aggies cover - It's not that I don't think UNLV can't beat the spread, it's more of the fact that we haven't seen this team on the road yet. Bet a Domino's pizza.
9/29/2012, 7:00 PM San Diego State vs Fresno State (-7.5), O/U-60.5 -- We know how Fresno responds after a loss, be afraid Aztecs, be very afraid. Expect this one to not be close.
My Pick - Bulldogs cover easily - Something needs to be said about Rocky Long's playcalling. This year's Aztecs have a major tendency of losing games they should easily win. Bet a couple bottles of Gallo wine for local Fresno flavor.