Well, it wasn't a horrible week last week, but we can kind of confirm, especially this year, that the odds don't know what they're doing as well as the people who pick the games. Right now, a 7-team WAC looks almost as strong as the Mountain West, with their 3 teams looking better than our 3 teams. Yes, I said that: COME AT ME, MOUNTAIN WEST BROS.
With watching more and more football, we can know more than the oddsmakers. Διπλοῦν ὁρῶσιν οἱ μαθόντες γράμματα, an Ancient Greek proverb which in English translates to "Those who know the letters see double." We watch our teams obsessively, and if we love college football, then we stick around for the other 50 games going on in the weekend. Therefore, in watching all these games, we become more informed than most.
Last Week: 4-3
Lines after the jump
Editor's note: all spreads are coming from Odds Shark. Please also note that the the favored team will have the spread points. All times are in Pacific Standard Time.
10/5/2012, 7:15 PM Utah State at BYU (-8), O/U-45-- This is Utah State's year. They compete for 2 trophies on Friday, the Old Wagon Wheel, which signifies the rivalry between USU and BYU, and the Beehive Boot, which signifies the best team in Utah. BYU has an 8 point advantage, but outside of the win over a bad Hawaii, they've looked below average against decent competition.
My PIck-Utah State to cover and win - The Utah State Aggies in my opinion, are the best team in Utah. Bet some cheese and watch the agricultural school reign.
10/6/2012, 8:30 AM Navy at Air Force (-8.5), O/U-55-- Navy is really bad this year, and Air Force got their act together in a blowout win versus Colorado State. So why are the Falcons only an 8.5 favorite over the Midshipmen? I have no idea...
My Pick-Air Force in a blowout - Air Force should start with a successful victory to start their Commander-in-Chief's trophy repeat. Bet a 12-pack of Coors, just because.
10/6/2012, 9:00 AM Boise State (-9.5) at Southern Mississippi, O/U-47-- Well at least the oddsmakers know that BSU really can't score this year (see the Over/Under), but we actually see a spread that BSU should be able to cover. While New Mexico is shaping up to be surprisingly "are they okay or are other teams that bad," USM is definitely "that bad."
My Pick-Boise State covers- BSU should be able to do this. Yes, I know it's an early game and I know it's in Hattiesburg, but USM is really, really bad. Bet some skittles and hope that the Golden Eagles don't wear their retro-uniforms.
10/6/2012, 3:00 PM Texas State at New Mexico (-3), O/U-51.5 -- Let's see how momentum holds up from last week for both of these teams. The Lobos only have a home team advantage in this game. I think they're better than that, even with B.R. Holbrook at the helm.
My Pick- FOOTBAW BAWB - Dennis Franchione does return to Albuquerque, but he'll leave like he did before, with a losing record. Bet some jerky, so you can see the texture of FOOTBAW BAWB's leathery skin.
10/6/2012, 4:00 PM UNLV at Louisiana Tech (-24.5), O/U-68.5 -- Forget head to head, the name of the game in the WAC this year is "Whoever beats UNLV by the most points wins." Utah State won by 24: your move Bulldogs.
My Pick- Louisiana Tech covers - This is not because UNLV is bad (okay well it's partially because they're bad), it's because LaTech averages 52 points through five games...who's going to stop them? Bet a five dollar footlong, because by the time you finish it, the Bulldogs will have scored a minimum of 30 points.
10/6/2012, 4:00 PM Fresno State (-13) at Colorado State, O/U-59.5 -- Only 13 points? Nope, wrong answer, Vegas.
My Pick- Fresno State - Colorado State's morale is dwindling, they lost a major donor for the new stadium, they got blown out by Air Force and their starting QB is out with injury. Bet In-N-Out, whatever you can afford, because it'll feel good after a big win or loss.
10/6/2012, 4:05 PM Wyoming at Nevada (-14.5), O/U-65 -- Did someone mention that Brett Smith is back? Or was the lackluster win over Texas State indicative of this Nevada team? A team with no rush defense versus a team with no secondary, both with good quarterbacks, who wins?
My Pick- WYOMING COVERS AND WINS - STUPID UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK ALERT! I honestly have no reason to pick this game for the Cowboys other than hoping for chaos. Bet a bag of popcorn, because that's what you'll be eating while watching this game.
10/6/2012, 5:00 PM Hawaii at San Diego State (-16), O/U-61 -- Hawaii is really bad, we all know this. There's no denying it. Yet we still don't know how good or bad SDSU is, they put up 40 on FSU last week so they have a potent offense, but you still have to question Rocky Long's decision-making.
My Pick- SDSU covers - There should be no issues winning this game. If there is, SDSU will have a hard time making a bowl game. Bet Roberto's tacos.