Since TCU does play BYU this year, I feel this is relevant and because it shows what some -- not all I am not stereotyping all BYU fans -- think of their team and that their expectations maybe a bit high for 2011.
This comes from the dwindling non-AQ coverage from the ESPN college football blog section in the non-AQ mailbag:
Josh in Salt Lake City writes: What's the reality of BYU getting a BCS bid with one loss? A one-loss BYU would be ranked where? I'd assume around 7-10. A non-AQ with one loss would drop to 12-15 or even further down. Boise State and Nevada last year for example. One loss for a team in a non-AQ conference means no BCS game. Would a BCS selection committee turn down a one-loss BYU that is ranked 7th or 8th in the country who's played 5-7 BCS opponents? If BYU went undefeated, they'd be in the top 5 realistically. A top 5 team wouldn't get the shaft out of a BCS game. It can happen, but it won't, because Americans have at least some sense of morals, in my opinion. Notre Dame can lose twice and they'll get into a BCS game. Why do you think that is? Is it because of their SOS, or BCS committees know that they'll bring tons of money to the table?
Adelson writes: You are assuming a lot for Year 1 as an independent. First of all, BYU is going to start the season in all likelihood unranked. So it is going to have to climb up the polls. If BYU ends the season with one loss, I could see a top-10 ranking, but it would depend on where everyone else finishes. Boise State with one loss last season was ranked right at No. 10 in the final BCS standings -- and was left out of a BCS game. Second of all, the schedule has a few big names, but let us remember Ole Miss, Texas and Oregon State all missed bowl games last season. So BYU needs for all its marquee opponents to have great seasons.
As for your contention about morals, I think we can safely say those have been thrown out the window at various spots across the country. In fact, there are those who would probably argue the BCS is immoral because of the way teams are selected.
On Notre Dame: The Irish only get an auto bid if they finish in the top 8 of the BCS standings. Notre Dame is attractive because of its national brand, so it would be possible for a two-loss Irish team to get in. But the same can be said for SEC or Big Ten teams as well. Arkansas got in as an at-large last season with two losses; Iowa in 2009 with two losses; Ohio State in 2008 with two losses. Is it fair? No. But the teams in the bigger conferences or even Notre Dame are more attractive for BCS games.
This person thinks very highly that BYU can have one loss and be ranked fifth through seven, not likely. BYU will be unranked when the season begins and will need to climb and go 10-0 or 11-0 and losing late in the season -- just as Boise State did losing to Nevada -- to maybe be ranked high enough that a loss would keep them in the top-10. BYU did struggle last year to get to six wins, and those optimistic Cougar fans point to a strong second half that will catapult them to a great season.
Just remember that the second half of the schedule was piss poor outside of the Utah game. Their last six opponents combined for 16 wins with 10 of those coming from Utah. Now, BYU should be better with the amount of talent returning, but Josh in Salt Lake needs to check his expectations for BYU in 2011 so that he does not have his heart crushed if BYU only manages to get eight or nine wins.
As for the five to seven BCS teams that BYU will play, he needs to do a little bit better in the math department. BYU plays Ole Miss, Texas, Utah and Oregon State which is four, and if I am being generous we could include TCU since the made a BCS bowl game last year which ups the number to five.
Yeah, just had to comment on that. When TCU plays BYU I fully expect a similar outcome over the past few years with TCU taking care of business against BYU in Jerry World.