BCS Bowl Projections: One Last Look If TCU, Boise State Have A Shot

All the games have played and now we just wait for the results to come out. The coaches poll is expected to be released at their normal time and that is all we will know until the BCS standings are released. The Harris poll likely will wait and the computers are witheld as well to not give too much away.

TCU got what they wanted when Houston lost the conference USA title game to give TCU a shot at the BCS game. However, other teams were not as nice as Clemson upset Virginia Tech, Baylor routed Texas and the Big 10 title game was extremely close. In the latest USA Today coaches poll TCU was able to jump Baylor to be at No. 15 in the polls. Also, Houston was dropped below TCU which helped.

But is it enough for TCU to get into a BCS bowl game? There is still the Harris poll voters also had TCU at No. 17 in last weeks standings and typically the two polls are extremely similar. So if they bump up TCU to No. 15 it would be hard to see them being left out of the BCS. However, the pesky computers are holding down TCU. The game against UNLV did nothing to help and TCU could even lose computer points. CBS' Jerry Palm and SB Nation's BCS Guru have TCU at No. 18.

I could be overly optimistic by thinking TCU has a chance, but unless the computers dropp TCU even further I am thinking they will make a BCS bowl game.

As for Boise State things look even more shaky as the coaches poll for some reason moved up Michigan four spots to No. 12 and almost assuring them to be ranked in the BCS top-14.

Here is a breakdown of teams that have qualified for the BCS:

SEC Champion: LSU
ACC Champion: Clemson
Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma State
Big East: West Virginia
Pac-12: Oregon
Big 10: Wisconsin
AQ at-large: Stanford
AQ at-large: Alabama

List of available at-large pool teams:

Kansas State
Michigan
Michigan State
Boise State
Virginia Tech

Assuming Michigan gets in that removes Michigan State, so Boise State will have to battle it out between Virginia Tech and Kansas State. Kansas State I am not too worried about, but Virginia Tech could be a challenger. I think Boise State's best shot is if Oklahoma State can get into the BCS title game so that the Fiesta can have two open spots. I could see them taking Stanford to replace Oklahoma State and then picking Boise State to matchup, but the Fiesta could go with a new team and take Michigan instead since Fiesta gets first pick of at-large teams after replacements.

This opens up three spots and I will go through this process four teams, once with TCU earning a bid and one without TCU. The other two will be with a projection of Oklahoma State in title game and one with Alabama.

Here is the bowl selection order: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange. Also, the bowl game that loses their slotted team gets to pick first to replace the team they lost.

TCU in BCS, Alabama in title game

BCS title: LSU vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. TCU
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

TCU in BCS, Oklahoma State in title game

BCS title: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virgnia
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

TCU not in BCS, Alabama in title game

BCS title: LSU vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Kansas State (not happy with that but I doubt Boise would go here just because of geography, but a better game with Boise State)
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

TCU not in BCS, Oklahoma State in title game

BCS title: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

OR

BCS title: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan
Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Boise State
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. West Virginia
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin

The second scenario is one where the Fiesta opts for Boise State instead of Michigan, not sure if that will happen, but if Fiesta passes on Michigan that is the only way Boise State makes a BCS bowl game. Also Oklahoma State must be in the title game.

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