The MWC needs Mizzou to join the SEC
As a Longhorn fan I'm torn on this subject but as a MWC fan this seems obvious, Missouri joining the SEC is the best thing to ever happen to the Mountain West. Why?
Well, the Big 12 was contemplating just expanding to 10 after losing A&M, but now they are worried that they will be seen as an inferior conference (despite what the stats say) if they only have 10 members while the other major conferences will have 12 (B1G/PAC), 14 (SEC/ACC), and possibly even 16 (ACC+UConn & Rutgers). Not only are they worried about losing what little prestige they have left, many schools (primarily in what used to be called the Big 12 North) are worried about being left behind by TX/OU and know that there is strength in numbers.
Now many have speculated that the Big 12 may target MW members like Air Force, Boise St, UNLV, SD St, and potential/former members like BYU, TCU, and Houston; however it seems that their gaze has moved Eastward. With the defections of Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC, the Big East is ripe for the picking, and although many on here (including myself) beleive that many of the MW schools are better than the Big East schools the perception of adding current AQ's into the Big 12 will strengthen its reputation more than adding non-AQs.
This means that schools like Louisville, Cincinnati, and West Virginia are going to be the most probable additions to get back to 12. This makes sense from Kansas and company's perspective, why travel West when their are closer options available to them, and IF the PAC16 with the TX/OK schools was to form would the Big 12 would still be in a strong position to invite many schools like Temple, Memphis and East Carolina into the league to keep it viable.
With Big East football all but gone, their AQ would most probably be given to the MWC.
This would be the best scenario for the MWC, they could keep TCU (or add BYU if the Big 12 doesn't), and have the ability to poach the best available non-AQ schools without fear of losing their AQ status, so adding Utah St and San Jose St (for their markets) and UTEP, SMU, Houston, and Gonzaga (as a non-football school) would make a solid all around league, while adding 4-5 new markets. This 16 team league would solidify the MWC's position in the top 6 by knocked CUSA down a couple of pegs (thus eliminating their biggest threat, besides any BCS reforms) and would probably kill the WAC at the same time making them the only other conference in the West along with the PAC12, which would hopefully give them the ability to finally renegotiate their TV contract.
CUSA would respond by adding North Texas and Louisiana Tech, in addition to USF (from the Big East), Temple, and possibly Troy; and the Sunbelt would take the remaining teams in the Southwest like Texas State, UTSA, UT-Arlington, NMSU from the WAC.
In the end I can't think of a better scenario than what is unfolding at the moment. If the Big 12's focus stays East and out of Texas (save BYU or TCU) then the Mountain West appears to be the greatest benefactor of this next round of expansion more so than the SEC. The SEC is hoping to renegotiate its TV deals to increase its payout from around 20 million per school, per year to 30 million, however the MWC could conceivably get a deal that increases its payout from less than 2 million per school per year to upwards of 15 million per schools per year (what the Big East and Big 12 projected payout would have been). Now nothing is set in stone but obviously the revenue increase of even just 10 million a year means much more to schools making 1-2 million versus one's making around 20 million. If this 12 member swing plus the addition of an AQ doesn't give them enough to renegotiate their TV contract then I don't know what will.
If the Big 12 loses Mizzou, and adds Lville, Cinncy, WVU, and BYU; then I think the MWC would be insane not to take advantage of its opportunity to expand and take over the land from Texas to California and everything in between.
Thoughts?
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I agree with you, thanks for the great post TP.
My only hesitation: does Craig Thompson have the testicular fortitude and foresight to pull that ambitious set of additions and negotiations off?
My gut says no. But you guys study this conference a lot more than I do.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
14 straight seasons with at least 74 wins (1998-2011). We haven't lost 90+ games in a season since 1997. Not bad on a shoestring budget.
If the ACC and SEC do it I think he will...
since the precedent has been set, if they don’t then I agree with you, nothing will happen until the contract is up, which is 2015 I think…
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
I disagree to a point, because Boise State has been mentioned as a possible Big 12, but a lot of things need to happen, and one of those is Missouri leaving the Big 12. I am thinking it could be Louisville and West Virginia and then have BYU and Boise to join the Big 12. Makes sense to help with traveling for minor points.
I don’t totally disagree with you, but I still think that Boise could go but maybe TCU instead of Boise, but you have the right idea in that if the Big East dissolves the MWC will have a seat at the BCS table.
After looking at your chart...
Prior to Utah to the PAC12, do you know the last non AQ school to be added to a major conference (omitting the Big East and quality independents)? The answer is Arizona and ASU to the PAC10 back in the 1970’s. I have many more reasons why I don’t think Boise St will get an invite to the Big 12 but that about sums it up. The Big East has become a testing ground for AQ teams so adding them seems more probable than adding Boise. BYU has become a quality independent (just as good if not better than Utah due to it’s Bball and LDS following) so adding them and BE schools seems the most logical. TX and OU seem to want to stay in the same division so BYU to the South makes sense and the BE schools to the North fits nicely too. Despite what going on the Big 12 isn’t desperate, Lville BYU and WVU are the most attractive schools out there the 4th school will most probably just be filler Cinncy fits nicely with the other BE schools and they have a decent market which is something the Big 12 needs after losing Denver, St Louis and NU/A&M. Boise adds football and a national following but poor academics (yes it still matters WVU will be the exception not the rule) and no market and horrible travel. But hey it could still happen but I hope not for the good of both the Big 12 and the MWC.
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
by TowerPower on Oct 6, 2011 12:15 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I dont think Missouri will leave
but if they do, it will make it less likely for the Big 12 to add Louisville, Cincinnati, and West Virginia. Missouri would have served as a gateway east to these schools and without Missouri these make less sense. I do believe geographical contiguous does matter. Sure these three teams can still be added but without Missouri I think it less likely.
BYU is likely.
TCU is likely.
Tulane has been mentioned, and I am fine with that.
Colorado State in my opinion would be more likely than AFA. AFA would still want to play Army and Navy each year, leaving little room for regional non conference games against Colorado and Colorado State. Thus it won’t have as much presence in the Colorado market. Besides, the Colorado – Colorado State rivalry is good.
Boise State would be considered if Missouri leaves and the Big 12 looks west rather than east.
If the Big East survives (more likely if Missouri leaves the Big 12) then then MWC might also lose AFA (in addition to Colorado State and Boise State) it would be bad for the MWC, which then might have to consider merging with the WAC or C-USA. WAC makes more sense from travel cost stand point.
people love maps...
but if you look at Kansas & KSU they are on the far, far East portion of the state so they and Iowa St are way closer to Lville and Cinncy than Texas Tech is to BYU, look at this…

yes Air Force/CSU could help with that but it is still pretty far out there, WVU is a bigger name than BYU why not add Lville and Cinncy and bridge to WVU, I think it is a better solution than going West where you have student athlete dealing with time changes and schools working with less flights which means more expensive chartered flights. Plus Cinncy/Lville make great travel partners where the basketball team could fly out and play both school and then fly back which is a trait often overlooked/forgotten by fans but not the coaches/administration.
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
wow things has happened since this post
TCU and AFA have both largely declared themselves
I have also come to believe the Big 12 looking east with Louisville & Cincinnati would be top selection, with WVU if Mizzou leaves.
Big East - CUSA Merger and MWC - WAC Merger
At this point I would not be shocked to see the Big East just merge with CUSA for survival purposes. This may even allow them to retain their AQ status, whether or not it would be deserved.
Who would blame the CUSA if the Big East reached out to them with this proposal. Everyone knows about the discussions between the MWC and CUSA and, with the lack of loyalty being displayed across the land, the Big East could step right into the mix.
Personally, I believe a merger of the Big East and CUSA would be a good move for the eastern half of the country. Then the MWC and WAC could merge to cover the western half of the country. Two strong 14/16 team conferences with conference championship games. Both of these conference champion should then be invited to the BCS playoff.
by Chris Holly Taylor on Oct 6, 2011 8:57 AM PDT reply actions
I'd like to see that...
you would think that the champion of a 14-16 team MWC/WAC or CUSA/BE would be more than qualified to play in a BCS game
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
I think you're working form a faulty premise
There’s no reason there have to be six AQ conferences, and if Big East football is no longer a plausible AQ after 2014 (and it isn’t, with TCU not joining and WVU presumably gone one way or another; there’s no one that can be plausibly added that would change that), then there will be only five AQ conferences, even if it means they have to throw another bone to the non-AQs and allow a second non-AQ champ to qualify automatically if it meets the rules.
that's fine this is my opinion but if you look at the 4th link in my post...
“According to Sentinel sources, the BCS board of directors has suggested that to continue operating, it needs six automatic qualifying conferences. That opens the door for the Mountain West and Conference USA to try and gather new friends and walk on in. Both have been on the outside looking in when it comes to the BCS party and would love to finally write their own invitation.”
"We are who we are. People say what they say. The outcome is the outcome. We are proud of ourselves." -DeLoss Dodds 9/21/2011
I hate to tell you this
But the Orlando Sentinel is… really unreliable on stuff like this. They’ve been claiming UCF was about to join the Big East since 2003, for one.
What's best for the MW
Now that WVU has joined the Big XII and and Mizzou is set to officially join the SEC there are reports that the Big East doesn’t want to talk to the MW and C-USA to form the super league previously proposed, so commissioner Thompson has to step up. He, along with the Big East commissioner have come out of this situation looking like Nero fiddling while Rome burns. It is time to stop thinking about about what is best for his relationship with commissioner Banowski (C-USA) and start doing what is best for the MW, its academic institutions and the fans thereof.
My suggestions, in order of action I think he should take at this moment, which we all know can and will make any suggestions impossible at any moment are as follows.
1.) Talk to powers that be at the BCS and ask if following proposal steps will give MW AQ status. He and his buddy B. Banowski, who is also head of NCAA infractions committee so he should have a clue, didn’t bother to follow this step before starting off the football merger.
2.) Once Ok is given, which I suspect it would be other wise what’s the point, kill the MW with its purple and grey moniker and create the “Big West” or something similar. Gotta get out of terrible TV contract somehow…
3.) Re-invite all 10 members (next year’s) and get Hawaii for ALL sports, not just football.
4.) Invite Houston, SMU, Louisville and Cincinnati. If these teams know that the AQ status is guaranteed, see step one, there is a greater likelihood of this happening.
4.a.) If new, tier 1 and tier 2 contacts are available, invite BYU and offer the institution its own tier 3 rights, i.e. the ability to keep BYU-TV. That, plus AQ status,could bring them back in. Then there would be the need to bring in either SJSU or, probably better, Memphis/Marshall to make the East teams happy. Need even number.
5.) Allow teams, preferably in pairs to create combined tier 3 networks for olympic sports and non-nationally covered football games. Example, Wyoming/CSU. Not a natural pairing, but a way to keep costs low and get exposure. Helps recruiting in other areas.
6. Add conference championship game with new contract and revenue sharing. $$$ and exposure.
Mr. Thompson, this is to you: you are in a raid or be raided business. You sit and hang out with your friend B.B., while all of the good teams bolt as soon as they get a chance. Do something about it! If the Big East (Big Least) is dead, how is it that it can hold talks with BSU and AFA, and be poised to get Houston and SMU? If it is so dead, why are you and your friend Britton hanging out in New York trying to get an audience (and being denied)? Your inactivity and lack of vision have allowed BYU, Utah and TCU to leave for greener pastures. Are we about to lose 2 more? If we had all of those now departed teams, even some of them, the MW would be an AQ conference. Adding USU and/or UTEP doesn’t help! We, the fans, are tired of watching you react instead of striking first, while the iron is hot. Act, add quality and get results or resign!

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