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Predicting the Season: Final BCS Summary

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About darn time we stop talking about fake games and start looking at real games!

66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

The UNLV Hawaii game is bumped into this week, as a seperate post for one game would be silly. Not that this exercise is not silly in an of itself, but I have to draw the line somewhere.

In week thirteen, TCU demolished New Mexico and SDSU beat UNLV. Utah and BYU played another close rivalry game, as the final MWC conference game for both. UNLV was too close to call against Hawaii in week 14.

In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a test against Nevada while Houston faced Texas Tech. In week 14 Boise State handled Utah State while Houston fought it out in the C-USA championship game.

Projected BCS rankings

Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.

Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.

12-0 Boise State: #3
12-0 TCU: #4
13-0 Houston: #6
11-1 Boise State: #6
11-1 TCU: #11
11-1 Utah: #11
12-1 Houston: #13
10-2 Utah: #16
10-2 TCU: #18
10-2 Houston: #19
10-2 Boise State: #19
10-2 Air Force #23
9-3 Utah: #24
9-3 TCU: #25
9-3 Boise State: #25

A 9-3 Air Force could get votes.

Unexpected teams may still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) should sneak in as well. Yesterday's comments pointed out that Navy would not be unexpected here and deserves specific recognition. None of these should be higher than #12.

One would likely be available if BYU, the MWC and Houston all fail to make the cut. Most likely this would be the C-USA winner, who beat Houston in the C-USA championship game.

 

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team Conference Total
PCT +1 Win Expected -1 Win PCT +2 Win +1 Win Expected -1 Win -2 Win
TCU 0.826 20.0%
8-0
37.8%
7-1
28.2%
6-2
11.1%
5-3
0.862 15.1%
12-0
33.1%
11-1
30.2%
10-2
15.5%
9-3
5.0%
8-4
Utah 0.711 20.6%
7-1
32.3%
6-2
26.2%
5-3
12.0%
4-4
0.735 9.7%
11-1
21.5%
10-2
27.2%
9-3
21.9%
8-4
11.9%
7-5
Air Force 0.634 8.84%
7-1
26.5%
6-2
33.8%
5-3
21.4%
4-4
0.651 8.1%
10-2
22.0%
9-3
29.4%
8-4
24.0%
7-5
11.8%
6-6
Wyoming 0.523 11.7%
6-2
25.5%
5-3
30.7%
4-4
20.5%
3-5
0.533 14.7%
8-4
25.9%
7-5
27.7%
6-6
17.6%
5-7
6.5%
4-8
BYU 0.526 12.9%
6-2
25.3%
5-3
28.7%
4-4
19.6%
3-5
0.481 9.7%
8-4
18.8%
7-5
24.4%
6-6
21.9%
5-7
13.6%
4-8
SDSU 0.403
11.7%
5-3
25.3%
4-4
31.1%
3-5
20.8%
2-6
0.497 10.3%
8-4
20.9%
7-5
27.1%
6-6
22.4%
5-7
11.4%
4-8
UNLV 0.328 16.3%
4-4
31.8%
3-5
31.3%
2-6
13.8%
1-7
0.338 14.5%
6-7
23.5%
5-8
25.7%
4-9
18.2%
3-10
7.9%
2-11
CSU 0.341
18.5%
4-4
31.1%
3-5
28.3%
2-6
13.0%
1-7
0.428 12.6%
7-5
22.0%
6-6
25.6%
5-7
19.9%
4-8
10.2%
3-9
New Mexico 0.206 15.6%
3-5
30.4%
2-6
33.0%
1-7
15.2%
0-8
0.237 8.5%
5-7
18.6%
4-8
27.4%
3-9
25.6%
2-10
13.6%
1-11

Well, I guess we finally get to see how good we are at picking the MWC...

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