Las Vegas Knows Something The Voters Do Not
by Jeremy Mauss on Aug 6, 2010 1:11 PM PDT
in Mountain West Football
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PrintEarlier today the USA Today Coaches (SID, secretary, or assistants) Poll was released today. The one thing that stood out to me was Pitt being ranked 15th; now I am not saying Pitt is undeserving at that spot, but when the Vegas odds makers who originally had Utah as a 1.5 favorite last week but now it is up to three points for Utah they must no something.
Vegas does not care about the rankings, but they want to provide action for both sides, so to see Utah ranked lower in the initial poll, but to see the Utes favored over Pitt is intriguing. It could be because Utah has to replace All-American offensive lineman Zane Beadles who was one of six Utes taken in the NFL draft, a defense that has to replace nearly the entire front seven, and the loss of their top wide outs.
Looking at Pitt they have the nations leader rusher and Heisman candidate in Dion Lewis, but they are breaking in a new quarterback, and lost star defensive end Jabaal Sheard for one game because of arrested and charged with aggravated assault, resisting arrest, criminal mischief and disorderly conduct following an alleged altercation three weeks ago. He also allegedly threw his victim through a glass window.
A player missing one game does not correlate for the preseason top 25 rankings, but instead of looking at the rankings only to determine who is better make sure to reference the Vegas lines since their main goal is making money and not in who wins.
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Keep in mind
that homefield advantage is typically worth about 3 points…
"Football is a violent game played by violent people, so put a smile on your face, murder in your heart and lets go kick these f***kers in the mouth" -Dick Bumpas, TCU Defensive Coordinator
Agreed but still...
A 9 spot differential in ranking is a lot.
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Agreed but still...
A 9 spot differential in ranking is a lot.
Mountain West Connection The best site for MWC sports!
I agree
Pitt ranked that highly is crazy in my book, but the oddsmakers may be looking at that one-game suspension (and home-field advantage, like Ben said) as something that puts a “lesser” team over the top.
I think Utah has this by 3 touchdowns and Pitt finishes 7-5 with losses to Utah, Miami, ND and 2 conference losses (which they always seem to manage, despite how good they are).
Mark, Cougar for Life
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three TD's
WOW!! I am expecting this to be a close game either way and within seven points.
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Not to attack
But I’m surprised at how optimistic Ute fans are for this year. I’m not seeing a top 25 D on the field for them next year, maybe by year end but certainly not at the beginning. How in the world are they going to stop Lewis? He alone will rack up 3 td’s and 150+ yards.
Not sure how Pitt’s D ranks but this one could be a higher scoring game, one Utah is not normally acustomed to. I call it Pitt 38 Utah 31.
I think
Part of it has to do with Whittingham being able to always have a very good defensive line dating back to the mid 2000’s with Steve Fifita and others. It is similar to BYU’s offense, they received some votes at 28 but have to replace Max Hall, Harvey Unga, Dennis Pita, and Andrew George.
Lewis does scare me as he will be used a ton with the inexperienced QB. I can not really argue against your prediction on the score I think Utah will win, but would not be surprised if they lose. The only shock would be if the game is a blowout either way.
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Pitt's D
is actually pretty good. They recorded the most sacks in the country last season and they return both DE’s in Romeus and Sheard. Jabaal Sheard has been reinstated and it hasn’t been said that he will miss the Utah game. In fact, I’m pretty sure he will be playing in the game so I’m not sure where people heard that he wasn’t. It should be an exciting game only 27 more days!
interesting on Sheard
I thought he was out indefinitely and at least the first game.
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Sheard and Romeus
I hadn’t heard much about Pitt’s D until recently (throwing a guy throw an art gallery window?!?!) but the more I read the lower I predict Utah’s score for the game. I think Utah’s BCS aspirations (as many Utes I know are predicting) will be gone after week 1.
by vaughnzipper on Aug 7, 2010 12:46 PM PDT up reply actions
BCS aspirations for Utah?
I have not heard too much of that. I think a BCS bowl is quite a reach, I can see a 9 or 10 win regular season as the best Utah could do but a BCS bowl needs a lot to happen. The only team I can for sure say is much better then Utah is TCU. I think Pitt is fairly equal as is Air Force and BYU, but who knows about Notre Dame but I think Utah is better then ND.
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Utah has some decent amount of experience returning
especially on the DL and at corner. LB and Safety both might be ???, but Utah has always had a great defense, and the talent is there for KW and Kalani to put it together. You might not see it, but you’re a BYU fan.
And we’re going to stop lewis just like any other running back. Stack the box, put pressure, move the line, just like Utah’s D always does. He’ll be looking to go outside every run, and we’ve got the speed to contain that outside run.
I think it will be lower scoring with both teams running the ball a lot. 21-10 Utah.
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