Predicting the Season: BCS Summary Week Twelve

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66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

In week twelve, Air Force shock and awed UNLV, Utah took down SDSU and BYU  took care of New Mexico. Wyoming had a close game against CSU and TCU took their only BYE week.

In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a test against Fresno State while Houston faced Southern Mississippi.

Projected BCS rankings

Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.

Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.

10-0 Boise State: #3
11-0 TCU: #4
9-1 Boise State: #8
11-0 Houston: #9
10-1 TCU: #12
10-1 Utah: #14
9-2 TCU: #20
9-2 Utah: #20
8-2 Boise State: #21
10-2 Air Force #25

Boise State, Utah or TCU might get significant numbers of votes with three losses.

Unexpected teams may still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) should sneak in as well. Yesterday's comments pointed out that Navy would not be unexpected here and deserves specific recognition. None of these should be higher than #13.

Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team	Conference					Total
	PCT	+1 Win	Expected		-1 Win	PCT	+2 Win	+1 Win	Expected	-1 Win	-2 Win
TCU	0.816	22.5% 7-0	39.7% 6-1	26.7% 5-2	9.2% 4-3	0.859	17.0% 11-0	35.1% 10-1	29.6% 9-2	13.7% 8-3	3.9% 7-4
Utah	0.739	10.0% 7-0	30.5% 6-1	34.0% 5-2	18.8% 4-3	0.755	15.4% 10-1	27.3% 9-2	27.1% 8-3	17.0% 7-4	7.08% 6-5
Air Force	0.634	8.84% 7-1	26.5% 6-2	33.8% 5-3	21.4% 4-4	0.651	8.1% 10-2	22.0% 9-3	29.4% 8-4	24.0% 7-5	11.8% 6-6
Wyoming	0.523	11.7% 6-2	25.5% 5-3	30.7% 4-4	20.5% 3-5	0.533	14.7% 8-4	25.9% 7-5	27.7% 6-6	17.6% 5-7	6.5% 4-8
BYU	0.532	20.0% 5-2	31.0% 4-3	26.3% 3-4	12.5% 2-5	0.481	14.3% 7-4	23.5% 6-5	25.4% 5-6	18.3% 4-7	8.6% 3-8
SDSU	0.360	14.8% 4-3	29.6% 3-4	31.7% 2-5	16.2% 1-6	0.478	12.9% 7-4	24.2% 6-5	28.3% 5-6	19.9% 4-7	7.9% 3-8
UNLV	0.333	10.7% 4-3	29.7% 3-4	36.7% 2-5	18.5% 1-6	0.329	6.4% 6-5	16.8% 5-6	27.5% 4-7	27.3% 3-8	15.4% 2-9
CSU	0.341	18.5% 4-4	31.1% 3-5	28.3% 2-6	13.0% 1-7	0.428	12.6% 7-5	22.0% 6-6	25.6% 5-7	19.9% 4-8	10.2% 3-9
New Mexico	0.220	13.8% 3-4	29.9% 2-5	35.0% 1-6	17.1% 0-7	0.249	7.4% 5-6	17.5% 4-7	27.4% 3-8	26.9% 2-9	14.8% 1-10

Ok, I guess we can hate on those BYU traitors.

Says a Utah traitor.