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Predicting the Season: BCS Summary Week Eleven

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Well, I guess one week per day as I catch up here is in order. I guess a sprint to the finish is going to be hard to keep up with!

66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

In week eleven, Air Force downed New Mexico, TCU took down SDSU and Wyoming took care of UNLV. BYU had another close game against CSU and Utah was close, but short, of a clear victory against Notre Dame.

In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a rest against Idaho and Houston gets tested by Tulsa.

Projected BCS rankings

Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.

Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.

9-0 Boise State: #3
11-0 TCU: #4
8-1 Boise State: #9
10-0 Houston: #10
10-1 TCU: #12
9-1 Utah: #14
8-2 TCU: #21
8-2 Utah: #22
7-2 Boise State: #23

8-2 Air Force would get votes, as might Boise State, Utah or TCU with three losses.

Unexpected teams may still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) should sneak in as well. Yesterday's comments pointed out that Navy would not be unexpected here and deserves specific recognition. None of these should be higher than #13.

Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team Conference Total
PCT +1 Win Expected -1 Win PCT +2 Win +1 Win Expected -1 Win -2 Win
TCU 0.816 22.5%
7-0
39.7%
6-1
26.7%
5-2
9.2%
4-3
0.859 17.0%
11-0
35.1%
10-1
29.6%
9-2
13.7%
8-3
3.9%
7-4
Utah 0.737 13.3%
6-0
36.1%
5-1
33.3%
4-2
14.1%
3-3
0.755 18.8%
9-1
30.0%
8-2
26.2%
7-3
14.0%
6-4
4.8%
5-5
Air Force 0.594 9.56%
6-1
28.1%
5-2
34.3%
4-3
20.2%
3-4
0.627 8.7%
9-2
22.0%
8-3
30.1%
7-4
23.5%
6-5
10.7%
5-6
Wyoming 0.512 16.6%
5-2
31.4%
4-3
30.1%
3-4
14.0%
2-5
0.527 7.4%
8-3
19.6%
7-4
30.1%
6-5
26.1%
5-6
12.0%
4-7
BYU 0.504 8.5%
5-1
24.9%
4-2
33.6%
3-3
23.1%
2-4
0.459 7.1%
7-3
17.3%
6-4
26.2%
5-5
25.1%
4-6
15.3%
3-7
SDSU 0.381
10.8%
4-2
27.9%
3-3
35.3%
2-3
20.0%
1-4
0.503 9.9%
7-3
22.4%
6-4
29.9%
5-5
23.0%
4-6
9.7%
3-7
UNLV 0.374 9.0%
4-2
28.9%
3-3
38.3%
2-4
20.0%
1-5
0.354 5.5%
6-4
15.8%
5-5
27.4%
4-6
28.3%
3-7
16.4%
2-8
CSU 0.332
11.6%
4-3
28.8%
3-4
34.4%
2-5
19.1%
1-6
0.431 8.4%
7-4
18.9%
6-5
26.7%
5-6
24.1%
4-7
13.8%
3-8
New Mexico 0.207 8.7%
3-3
25.8%
2-4
39.5%
1-5
24.4%
0-6
0.244 13.8%
4-6
26.2%
3-7
30.3%
2-8
19.1%
1-9
4.9%
0-10

I am still not sure why we all hate so much on BYU.

Is Wyoming a sleeper?

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