FanPost

Predicting the Season: BCS Summary Week Eleven

This post is being promoted to the front page.  It is from BCS Evolution who is adding BCS ramifications each week to be posted here. Make sure to visit their site.

Well, I guess one week per day as I catch up here is in order. I guess a sprint to the finish is going to be hard to keep up with!

66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

In week eleven, Air Force downed New Mexico, TCU took down SDSU and Wyoming took care of UNLV. BYU had another close game against CSU and Utah was close, but short, of a clear victory against Notre Dame.

In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a rest against Idaho and Houston gets tested by Tulsa.

Projected BCS rankings

Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.

Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.

9-0 Boise State: #3
11-0 TCU: #4
8-1 Boise State: #9
10-0 Houston: #10
10-1 TCU: #12
9-1 Utah: #14
8-2 TCU: #21
8-2 Utah: #22
7-2 Boise State: #23

8-2 Air Force would get votes, as might Boise State, Utah or TCU with three losses.

Unexpected teams may still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) should sneak in as well. Yesterday's comments pointed out that Navy would not be unexpected here and deserves specific recognition. None of these should be higher than #13.

Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team Conference Total
PCT +1 Win Expected -1 Win PCT +2 Win +1 Win Expected -1 Win -2 Win
TCU 0.816 22.5%
7-0
39.7%
6-1
26.7%
5-2
9.2%
4-3
0.859 17.0%
11-0
35.1%
10-1
29.6%
9-2
13.7%
8-3
3.9%
7-4
Utah 0.737 13.3%
6-0
36.1%
5-1
33.3%
4-2
14.1%
3-3
0.755 18.8%
9-1
30.0%
8-2
26.2%
7-3
14.0%
6-4
4.8%
5-5
Air Force 0.594 9.56%
6-1
28.1%
5-2
34.3%
4-3
20.2%
3-4
0.627 8.7%
9-2
22.0%
8-3
30.1%
7-4
23.5%
6-5
10.7%
5-6
Wyoming 0.512 16.6%
5-2
31.4%
4-3
30.1%
3-4
14.0%
2-5
0.527 7.4%
8-3
19.6%
7-4
30.1%
6-5
26.1%
5-6
12.0%
4-7
BYU 0.504 8.5%
5-1
24.9%
4-2
33.6%
3-3
23.1%
2-4
0.459 7.1%
7-3
17.3%
6-4
26.2%
5-5
25.1%
4-6
15.3%
3-7
SDSU 0.381
10.8%
4-2
27.9%
3-3
35.3%
2-3
20.0%
1-4
0.503 9.9%
7-3
22.4%
6-4
29.9%
5-5
23.0%
4-6
9.7%
3-7
UNLV 0.374 9.0%
4-2
28.9%
3-3
38.3%
2-4
20.0%
1-5
0.354 5.5%
6-4
15.8%
5-5
27.4%
4-6
28.3%
3-7
16.4%
2-8
CSU 0.332
11.6%
4-3
28.8%
3-4
34.4%
2-5
19.1%
1-6
0.431 8.4%
7-4
18.9%
6-5
26.7%
5-6
24.1%
4-7
13.8%
3-8
New Mexico 0.207 8.7%
3-3
25.8%
2-4
39.5%
1-5
24.4%
0-6
0.244 13.8%
4-6
26.2%
3-7
30.3%
2-8
19.1%
1-9
4.9%
0-10

I am still not sure why we all hate so much on BYU.

Is Wyoming a sleeper?

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Mountain West Connection

You must be a member of Mountain West Connection to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mountain West Connection. You should read them.

Join Mountain West Connection

You must be a member of Mountain West Connection to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mountain West Connection. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker