Predicting the Season: BCS Summary Week Ten

by utesfan100 on Aug 29, 2010 9:21 PM PDT

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Well, I guess one week per day as I catch up here is in order. I guess a sprint to the finish is going to be hard to keep up with!

66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

In week ten, Air Force DEMOLISHED Army and Wyoming embarrassed New Mexico. TCU vs. Utah, BYU vs. UNLV and SDSU vs. CSU were all very close.

In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a test vs. Hawaii and Houston scores a win over UCF.

Projected BCS rankings

Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.

Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.

8-0 Boise State: #3
10-0 TCU: #4
9-0 Utah: #8
7-1 Boise State: #9
9-0 Houston: #11
9-1 TCU: #13
8-1 Utah: #17
7-2 TCU: #23
6-2 Boise State: #24
7-2 Utah: #25

7-2 BYU or 8-2 Air Force would get votes, as might Boise State, Utah or TCU with three losses.

Unexpected teams will still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) might sneak in as well. None higher than #14.

Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.

A 7-2 BYU is close to the cutoff of 5%. (Actually below, but I am endowing them with a Utah State credit)

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team	Conference					Total
Team	PCT	+1 Win	Expected		-1 Win	PCT	+2 Win	+1 Win	Expected	-1 Win	-2 Win
TCU	0.810	26.5% 6-0	42.0% 5-1	24.0% 4-2	6.5% 3-3	0.860	20.0% 10-0	37.7% 9-1	28.2% 8-2	11.2% 7-3	2.6% 6-4
Utah	0.739	10.0% 6-0	30.5% 5-1	34.0% 4-2	18.8% 3-3	0.768	7.6% 9-0	25.4% 8-1	32.7% 7-2	22.4% 6-3	9.1% 5-4
Air Force	0.548	10.8% 5-1	30.7% 4-2	34.9% 3-3	18.0% 2-4	0.603	9.7% 8-2	23.9% 7-3	31.0% 6-4	22.3% 5-5	8.9% 4-6
BYU	0.487	13.3% 4-1	32.9% 3-2	34.0% 2-3	15.6% 1-4	0.444	10.2% 6-3	22.3% 5-4	28.9% 4-5	22.5% 3-6	10.4% 2-7
SDSU	0.427	8.1% 4-1	26.2% 3-2	37.5% 2-3	22.8% 1-4	0.542	8.0% 7-2	21.0% 6-3	30.7% 5-4	25.1% 4-5	11.0% 3-6
Wyoming	0.478	20.7% 4-2	35.5% 4-2	28.0% 3-3	8.6% 2-4	0.508	9.4% 7-3	23.6% 6-4	32.6% 5-5	23.5% 4-6	7.6% 3-7
UNLV	0.393	23.5% 3-2	42.9% 2-3	26.2% 1-4	3.9% 0-5	0.362	11.9% 5-4	25.9% 4-5	31.4% 3-6	20.4% 2-7	6.3% 1-8
CSU	0.319	21.7% 3-3	39.0% 2-4	27.9% 1-5	6.4% 0-6	0.433	14.1% 6-4	25.7% 5-5	28.0% 4-6	18.4% 3-7	7.1% 2-8
New Mexico	0.222	6.4% 3-2	23.5% 2-3	41.2% 1-4	28.0% 0-5	0.256	12.0% 4-5	25.4% 3-6	31.7% 2-7	21.1% 1-8	5.7% 0-9

I am still not sure why we all hate so much on BYU.

I know why I do, but not the rest of you :)

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Comments

you may want to add navy to your non bcs teams. they could run the table with all that talent coming back

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. Glory favors the bold. Chance favors the prepared mind. Luck, well i have that too. University of Utah goes to the Pac-12 conference in 2011. I expect them to compete immediately for the conference CG. Brock Lesnar will defeat Cain Velasquez. Womens MMA, the next big thing in sports. 1 week till the first game of college football. UTAH vs Pitt. September 2nd 2010.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Aug 29, 2010 10:07 PM PDT reply actions