FanPost

Predicting the Season: BCS Summary Week Ten

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Well, I guess one week per day as I catch up here is in order. I guess a sprint to the finish is going to be hard to keep up with!

66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

In week ten, Air Force DEMOLISHED Army and Wyoming embarrassed New Mexico. TCU vs. Utah, BYU vs. UNLV and SDSU vs. CSU were all very close.

In other non AQ conferences, Boise State got a test vs. Hawaii and Houston scores a win over UCF.

Projected BCS rankings

Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.

Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.

8-0 Boise State: #3
10-0 TCU: #4
9-0 Utah: #8
7-1 Boise State: #9
9-0 Houston: #11
9-1 TCU: #13
8-1 Utah: #17
7-2 TCU: #23
6-2 Boise State: #24
7-2 Utah: #25

7-2 BYU or 8-2 Air Force would get votes, as might Boise State, Utah or TCU with three losses.

Unexpected teams will still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) might sneak in as well. None higher than #14.

Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.

A 7-2 BYU is close to the cutoff of 5%. (Actually below, but I am endowing them with a Utah State credit)

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team Conference Total
PCT +1 Win Expected -1 Win PCT +2 Win +1 Win Expected -1 Win -2 Win
TCU 0.810 26.5%
6-0
42.0%
5-1
24.0%
4-2
6.5%
3-3
0.860 20.0%
10-0
37.7%
9-1
28.2%
8-2
11.2%
7-3
2.6%
6-4
Utah 0.739 10.0%
6-0
30.5%
5-1
34.0%
4-2
18.8%
3-3
0.768 7.6%
9-0
25.4%
8-1
32.7%
7-2
22.4%
6-3
9.1%
5-4
Air Force 0.548 10.8%
5-1
30.7%
4-2
34.9%
3-3
18.0%
2-4
0.603 9.7%
8-2
23.9%
7-3
31.0%
6-4
22.3%
5-5
8.9%
4-6
BYU 0.487 13.3%
4-1
32.9%
3-2
34.0%
2-3
15.6%
1-4
0.444 10.2%
6-3
22.3%
5-4
28.9%
4-5
22.5%
3-6
10.4%
2-7
SDSU 0.427
8.1%
4-1
26.2%
3-2
37.5%
2-3
22.8%
1-4
0.542 8.0%
7-2
21.0%
6-3
30.7%
5-4
25.1%
4-5
11.0%
3-6
Wyoming 0.478 20.7%
4-2
35.5%
4-2
28.0%
3-3
8.6%
2-4
0.508 9.4%
7-3
23.6%
6-4
32.6%
5-5
23.5%
4-6
7.6%
3-7
UNLV 0.393 23.5%
3-2
42.9%
2-3
26.2%
1-4
3.9%
0-5
0.362 11.9%
5-4
25.9%
4-5
31.4%
3-6
20.4%
2-7
6.3%
1-8
CSU 0.319
21.7%
3-3
39.0%
2-4
27.9%
1-5
6.4%
0-6
0.433 14.1%
6-4
25.7%
5-5
28.0%
4-6
18.4%
3-7
7.1%
2-8
New Mexico 0.222 6.4%
3-2
23.5%
2-3
41.2%
1-4
28.0%
0-5
0.256 12.0%
4-5
25.4%
3-6
31.7%
2-7
21.1%
1-8
5.7%
0-9

I am still not sure why we all hate so much on BYU.

I know why I do, but not the rest of you :)

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