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As each week of previews is completed I will be using the percentages to determine how to count each game. 66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.
In week nine, TCU dominated UNLV, Utah grounded Air Force, Wyoming took care of SDSU and CSU beat New Mexico.
In other non AQ conferences, Boise State was off and Houston scores a win over Memphis.
Projected BCS rankings
Rankings are based on the record preceding each team name.
Records with less than a 5% chance based on the polling are omitted.
7-0 Boise State: #3
9-0 TCU: #5
6-1 Boise State: #9
8-0 Utah: #10
8-0 Houston: #12
8-1 TCU: #17
7-1 Utah: #22
5-2 Boise State, 6-2 BYU or 6-2 Utah, 7-2 TCU or Air Force would get votes.
Unexpected teams will still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) might sneak in as well. None higher than #15.
Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.
A 5-2 BYU is close to the cutoff of 5%. (Actually below, but I am endowing them with a Utah State credit)
Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).
| Team | Conference | Total | |||||||||
| PCT | +1 Win | Expected | -1 Win | PCT | +2 Win | +1 Win | Expected | -1 Win | -2 Win | ||
| TCU | 0.857 | 45.6% 5-0 |
39.5% 4-1 |
12.9% 3-2 |
1.2% 2-3 |
0.891 | 34.4% 9-0 |
40.1% 8-1 |
19.5% 7-2 |
5.1% 6-3 |
0.8% 5-4 |
| Utah | 0.800 | 31.7% 5-0 |
42.3% 4-1 |
20.9% 3-2 |
4.7% 2-3 |
0.812 | 18.2% 8-0 |
35.4% 7-1 |
29.1% 6-2 |
13.1% 5-3 |
3.6% 4-4 |
| Air Force | 0.548 | 10.8% 5-1 |
30.7% 4-2 |
34.9% 3-3 |
18.0% 2-4 |
0.566 | 10.1% 7-2 |
24.8% 6-3 |
31.4% 5-4 |
21.7% 4-5 |
8.1% 3-6 |
| BYU | 0.469 | 21.5% 3-1 |
41.9% 2-2 |
27.8% 1-3 |
5.9% 1-4 |
0.430 | 14.9% 5-3 |
28.1% 4-4 |
29.4% 3-5 |
17.0% 2-6 |
5.1% 2-7 |
| SDSU | 0.399 |
13.6% 3-1 |
36.9% 2-2 |
38.1% 1-3 |
9.7% 0-4 |
0.542 | 12.5% 6-2 |
28.2% 5-3 |
32.8% 4-4 |
18.5% 3-5 |
4.6% 2-6 |
| Wyoming | 0.397 | 6.4% 4-1 |
22.8% 3-2 |
37.3% 2-3 |
26.8% 1-4 |
0.467 | 10.4% 6-3 |
25.4% 5-4 |
33.6% 4-5 |
22.1% 3-6 |
5.6% 2-7 |
| UNLV | 0.381 | 7.2% 3-1 |
44.2% 2-2 |
41.3% 1-3 |
7.0% 0-4 |
0.352 | 5.8% 5-3 |
19.6% 4-4 |
33.8% 3-5 |
28.2% 2-6 |
10.4% 1-7 |
| CSU | 0.291 |
9.1% 3-2 |
36.7% 2-3 |
41.6% 1-4 |
11.8% 0-5 |
0.430 | 7.9% 6-3 |
21.4% 5-4 |
30.8% 4-5 |
24.7% 3-6 |
11.0% 2-7 |
| New Mexico | 0.248 | 4.5% 3-1 |
20.9% 2-2 |
42.5% 1-3 |
31.8% 0-4 |
0.273 | 10.3% 4-4 |
24.4% 3-5 |
32.9% 2-6 |
23.0% 1-7 |
6.4% 0-8 |
The only changes I really expect from here are for Wyoming to pass SDSU and BYU to pass Air Force. The later might not happen in this prediction.
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