FanPost

Previewing the Season: BCS Summary for Week Six

This post is being promoted to the front page.  It is from BCS Evolution who is adding BCS ramifications each week to be posted here. Make sure to visit their site.

As each week of previews is completed I will be using the percentages to determine how to count each game. 66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

In week six conference play begins in earnest. Utah won out of conference, New Mexico held their own and UNLV fell to an in state rival. Air Force beat CSU, TCU handled Wyoming and BYU took care of SDSU.

In other non AQ conferences, Boise State scores a win over Toledo and Houston will be called a draw with Mississippi State.

Projected BCS rankings (given the record preceding each team): 

5-0 Boise State: #3
6-0 TCU: #8
4-1 Boise State: #10
6-0 BYU: #13
5-0 Utah: #14
5-0 Houston: #15
5-1 TCU: #24

A 5-1 Air Force or BYU or a 4-1 Utah would be climbing up the ORV's.

An unexpected teams will still be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA team or two (less unexpected) might sneak in as well. None higher than #20.

Essentially these teams will percolate at near #25 all season.

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team Conference Total
PCT +1 Win Expected -1 Win PCT +1 Win Expected -1 Win
TCU 0.880 76.8%
2-0
22.4%
1-1
0.8%
0-2
0.916 57.9%
6-0
34.3%
5-1
7.1%
4-2
0.6%
3-3
Utah 0.845 70.7%
2-0
27.6%
1-1
1.7%
0-2
0.837 40.6%
5-0
40.7%
4-1
15.6%
3-2
2.9%
2-3
Air Force 0.692 31.7%
3-0
46.2%
2-1
19.9%
1-2
0.646 23.2%
5-1
38.2%
4-2
26.2%
3-3
7.6%
2-4
UNLV 0.445 5.7%
2-0
77.5%
1-1
16.8%
0-2
0.363 7.6%
4-2
27.1%
3-3
40.5%
2-4
21.0%
1-5
BYU 0.390 39%
1-0
61%
0-1

0.438 17.1%
4-2
33.2%
3-3
30.5%
2-4
13.0%
1-4
SDSU 0.325
32.5%
1-0
67.5%
0-1

0.613 4.5%
5-0
25.6%
4-1
44.3%
3-2
22.9%
2-3
Wyoming 0.298 7.9%
2-0
43.7%
1-1
48.4
0-2
0.468 2.6%
5-1
16.4%
4-2
42.3%
3-3
36.3%
2-4
New Mexico 0.210 4.3%
2-0
33.4%
1-1
62.3%
0-2
0.270 14.8%
3-3
34.4%
2-4
35.0%
1-5
12.4%
0-6
CSU 0.090
0.6%
2-0
16.9%
1-1
82.5%
0-2
0.491 22.0%
4-2
40.3%
3-3
27.4%
2-4
6.5%
1-5

We are starting to get our first good picture of how the conference standings are viewed by the voters in this series. Somehow I get the feeling BYU fans are in hiding. That is usually a sign of quite confidence, biding its time for its day to shine.

It may be time to seriously talk about BYU making a run for the conference title and a BCS bowl.

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