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Around SBN: The End Of Sabanball: Details, Barbarians, And Precision

Previewing BYU's 2010 Opponents: Florida State Seminoles

Last years game was a chance for BYU to make a statement on their season, and follow up their stunning win over Oklahoma a few weeks earlier.  Instead the Seminoles ran at will against BYU crushing their hopes to prove their worth as a national contender.  This year the Seminoles are rebuilt, at least with a new coaching staff that is taking over for the legend Bobby Bowden.  Jimbo Fisher is taking over from Bowden and he finally gets his say on the staff instead being regulated to a lower member of Bowden's staff even though he has been the coach in waiting for a while.

When the move was made the Seminoles received a boost in recruiting and not because Bowden was leaving but because there is now going to be some stability in Tallahassee.  Also, the fans instantly loved the move.

The offense should be more contemporary with Jimbo having full control of the offense, plus the fact the 'Noles return nine offensive starters.  Also, toss in that they are pushing hard for Christian Ponder for Heisman with a CP7 logo

Ponder_medium

Star-divide

If Florida State has a good season then Ponder will be in the discussion for the Heisman, well because he plays at Florida State who was once a power program not to long ago.  The offense itself was not bad last year as they were a top 30 team in total offense, but Fisher will be able to have the control to run his style, and should be able to make the offense even better with his total control.

The player to watch on offense for FSU is new comer RB Debrale Smiley who is a JUCO transfer and could be a threat from day one:

a 6-foot-2, 240-pound sophomore signed out of junior college, has the size to make an impact in goal-line and other short-yardage situations. Smiley set school records for touchdowns in a season (35), touchdowns in a career (81) and rushing yards in a season (2,028) while starring at Thomas County Central High School in Thomasville, Ga.

Now the offense is predicated on Christian Ponder not getting injured and playing the entire season.  If Ponder goes down then the season will not live up to expectations and then there is the wasted money on the Heisman campaign for Ponder.  The offense will only get better with Fisher having total control.  Really, the offense is fine it is the defense that needs work.

Last year they were last in the ACC in total defense and 108th in the nation.  To remedy this Fisher hired one of the Stoops brothers to coach the defense with Mark Stoops taking on the challenge of putting a competitive defense on the field.  Stoops was at Arizona for the past six seasons and did a decent job in Tucson, but if he is able to turn around FSU's defense then he will get a head coaching job in no time.  He replaces the long time defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews who was very good during the 90's but dropped off considerably the past few years.

Last year they gave up a whopping 6.7 yards per play, and gave up more then 40 yards per game then the 11th place ACC team.  No position is safe as the new defensive staff had an open competition for all eleven spots.  Having a challenger looking to take your spot should make the defense at least more motivated if not better.  This is from the spring capsule at Rivals talking about the Seminole defense:

FSU must significantly improve across the board on defense. The Seminoles ranked 108th in the nation in total defense and run defense and 110th in pass efficiency defense last year. The line lacks an elite run-stuffer or a feared pass rusher. The Seminoles also have major holes in their secondary. They must replace each of their starting safeties and need someone to emerge as a shutdown cornerback to replace potential first-round pick Patrick Robinson. FSU does have a promising candidate to replace Robinson in sophomore Greg Reid, a former five-star prospect who earned significant playing time in the secondary and led the nation in punt-return average last season.

Also how does this make sense you return eleven offensive starters but lose three starters off of last years team.

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FSU was much better than many of the teams listed ahead of it in the total offense list

Of course, if the ‘Noles played in the MWC or the WAC I am sure they could be super-inflated as well. FSU would love to see BYU’s defense instead of Maryland, Clemson, UNC, Georgia Tech, Miami, UF, USF, Boston College and West Virginia. I do think BYU’s defense is on the level or Duke or Wake Forest, however.

As for the starters list, Piurowski went down in game 5 and didn’t play after that. Goodman didn’t play after game 6. Combined, FSU loses the equivalent of one starter there. Owens did start in most and that’s a starter lose. It would be accurate to say the offense lost 2 starters. The defense lost 5 starters, however two of those starters were felt to be much worse than the backups and played due to race (that coach was fired) or seniority.

by Bud Elliott on Jul 5, 2010 10:00 PM PDT reply actions  

thanks for the info

I just saw that stat on NationalChamps.net and find it humorous. Yes, had FSU played in a lesser league their stats would have been better, but the ACC is closer to the MWC then they are to the ACC, but still get your point.

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by Jeremy Mauss on Jul 6, 2010 8:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Starter lost*

Forgive my poor grammar.

I realize that BYU had an off day, but the quality of athlete they had out there shocked me. FSU played 8 or 9 teams who were clearly better on defense. Just surprised me. I knew BYU was slow, I did not know they were tiny.

by Bud Elliott on Jul 6, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

they are really that slow

Their DB’s are very questionable and always need help from LB’s or Safeties cheating over to help. In multiple WR sets BYU really relies on a rush which in the past has been solid.

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by Jeremy Mauss on Jul 6, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Inflated Numbers

While it is certainly true that a team can inflate their offensive stats against the likes of Utah State (431 total yd.s), UNLV (611 total yd.s), and Florida State (473 total yd.s) BYU also played as many top 25 defenses as FSU did during the 2009 season (4). The best way to compare their offense seams to be to compare their success against the top teams they played. BYU had TCU (1), Oklahoma (8), AFA (11), and Utah (19) and Florida State had Florida (4), North Carolina (6), Clemson (20), and South Florida (24).

BYU, in these four games went 3-1 averaging 354.5 total yards and 21.25 points (72.65 yards fewer than their season average).

Florida State, in their four games against top-25 defenses, went 1-3 averaging 294 total yards and 17.75 points (127.38 yards fewer than their season average).

BYU’s offense was better than the score indicated. If BYU doesn’t fumble inside the red zone on their first possession or fumble a kick off return that allowed the Seminoles to kick a field goal in the final seconds of the first half then the score could easily have been 27-21 at half rather than 30-14. Down 16 BYU had no choice but to throw the ball exclusively and that led to three interceptions in the second half including one returned 64 yards for a TD.

I give a lot of credit to FSU, they were the better team that day and they blew out BYU at their place and FSU certainly has the superior athletes. That being said, don’t count BYU out of the game in Tallahassee. FSU only stopped BYU’s drives when they got desperate (3 second half interceptions attest to that) and BYU will likely score more than a couple. So will FSU. I expect a shootout and for it to come down to the very end.

by nsalt on Jul 8, 2010 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

If we are talking about offenses we can throw out W-L record. And anyone with a clue realizes that BC and Miami have better defenses than Utah and AIR FORCE.

by Bud Elliott on Jul 9, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

If you really think BC and Miami

have better defenses than Utah, you don’t watch enough football. Utah has a top-20 defense.

Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.

by displacedute on Jul 9, 2010 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Blow Out?

FSU blew out the Cougers in Provo last year with the worst defense ever at FSU and in a higher altitude. I have feeling with BYU coming to Florida State without Max Hall or Harbey Unga, the score will be worse than last year. BYU doesn’t have the speed or talent level FSU has. Sorry to say for BYU but you may see a 63-17 type score this time around, EJ Manuel may even get many snaps as a 2nd string QB.

by NolesHeatBraves on Jul 5, 2010 11:37 PM PDT reply actions  

Add in a temperature of 96 degrees

and a humidity of 10,000%, and I think the BYU players will be done by halftime. Humidity and altitude are completely different animals. They won’t even be able to breathe.

Oh Lord, please let this game be tentatively scheduled for NOON

by freshcollegeboy on Jul 6, 2010 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

EDIT

Game is @ 3:30.

I’ll take it!

by freshcollegeboy on Jul 6, 2010 8:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Humidity vs Altitude

Actually the average high for September in Tallahassee is 88 degrees and the average afternoon humidity is closer to 60% than 10,000%. : )

Having grown up in Houston and gone to school at BYU I can assure you that if breathing is my ultimate goal I would MUCH rather be where it is humid than where the air is thin.

by nsalt on Jul 8, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

hope its not a blow out

I think if BYU had Unga then they could keep it closer by running behind their line which is pretty good and has an AA candidate in Matt Reynolds. Instead they could be coming in with an array of backs who are good but not as good has Unga, plus either a true freshman QB making his first road start in a hostile setting or Riley Nelson who has not played a ton since a true frosh at USU a few years back.

I do not expect BYU to win, but if they get any type of running game then they may save face from getting creamed, but even then that may not help.

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by Jeremy Mauss on Jul 6, 2010 8:46 AM PDT reply actions  

last year our offense played about as good as it could for 3 quarters – and BYU had turnovers that kept them from scoring – I actually think the game may be closer this year – and with fewer points – It is hard not to think the noles will win though.

by 93noleman on Jul 7, 2010 6:57 AM PDT reply actions  

I think last years game was not a good sample.

Honestly, I believe BYU was a much better team than the score implied. I am not trying to take away from the FSU win. I just think sometimes you see a blowout and know one team was way better than the other. Other times you see a blowout and think one team has the potential but the ball didn’t bounce right for them that day. In this game I think BYU had some bad luck and let it get into their heads.

I think if you could magically reset the clock and go back in time to play that game again, then things would be very different. First, I think the game would be close. I don’t know who would win, but I really think BYU would have a legitimate shot to win.

Clearly FSU was the better team on that day. I do not argue this. I really don’t want to take away from the FSU win because I truely hate it when people try to explain away a loss. I just think BYU had the potential.

by daedalus17 on Jul 7, 2010 9:32 AM PDT reply actions  


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