Predicting the Season: BCS Summary for Week 4

by utesfan100 on Jul 29, 2010 3:17 PM PDT

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As each week of previews is completed I will be using the percentages to determine how to count each game. 66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

In week four, UNLV earned a solid win over New Mexico while Air Force edged Wyoming in a game too close to call. TCU, Utah and BYU earned wins, while SDSU and CSU were too close to call. This is a significant bounce back from week three.

In other non AQ conferences, Boise State has what I will call a toss up with Oregon State and Houston has a solid win against Tulane.

Projected BCS rankings (given the record preceding each team): [Edited to fix records on 7/30]

3-0 Boise State: #2
4-0 TCU: #8
2-1 Boise State: #12
4-0 Utah: #14
4-0 BYU: #15
4-0 Houston: #16
4-0 Air Force: #22

A 3-1 TCU would be getting some votes.

Someone unexpected will be in the top 25 from the WAC, MAC or Sun Belt. A C-USA teams (less unexpected) might sneak in as well.

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team	Conference				Total
Team	PCT	+1 Win	Expected	-1 Win	PCT	+1 Win	Expected	-1 Win
Utah	0.845	70.7% 2-0	27.6% 1-1	1.7% 0-2	0.845	50.5% 4-0	38.3% 3-1	10.1% 2-2
Air Force	0.608	36.9% 2-0	47.7% 1-1	15.4% 0-2	0.606	39.2% 3-1	40.9% 2-2	12.2% 3-1
TCU	N/A		0-0		0.934	75.4% 4-0	22.7% 3-1	1.8% 2-2
SDSU	N/A		0-0		0.685	13.8% 4-0	50.2% 3-1	32.1% 2-2
CSU	N/A		0-0		0.604	35.4% 3-1	36.1% 2-2	14.6% 1-3
UNLV	0.445	5.7% 2-0	77.5% 1-1	16.8% 0-2	0.436	14.5% 3-1	47.8% 2-2	32.0% 1-3
Wyoming	0.395	39.5% 1-0	60.5% 0-1		0.419	10.7% 3-1	43.8% 2-2	44.7% 1-3
BYU	0.390	39% 1-0	61% 0-1		0.426	16.9% 3-1	40.1% 2-2	32.9% 1-3
New Mexico	0.210	4.3% 2-0	33.4% 1-1	62.3% 0-2	0.154	10.0% 2-2	38.2% 1-3	50.7% 0-4