Outside of UNM, BYU has the fewest number of total returning starts in the MWC. Here’s the list:

1. UNLV:
Offense: 154
Defense: 180
TOTAL: 334

2. SDSU:
Offense: 183
Defense: 140
TOTAL: 323

3. TCU:
Offense: 185
Defense: 117
TOTAL: 302

4. Wyoming:
Offense: 131
Defense: 144
TOTAL: 275

5. Utah:
Offense: 144
Defense: 78
TOTAL: 222

5. CSU:
Offense: 90
Defense: 128
TOTAL: 218

6. AF:
Offense: 84 (all skill players, no line)
Defense: 132
TOTAL: 216

BYU:
Offense: 105 (almost all line, plus Jacobson)
Defense: 70
TOTAL: 175

UNM:
Offense: 104
Defense: 61
TOTAL: 165

Now, returning starts aren’t all equal (nobody would change teams with UNLV and SDSU except maybe UNM), but experience helps, even if the talent level is not as high. BYU is 40 starts behind Air Force, 50 behind Utah, and 130 behind TCU.

Now, that doesn’t mean BYU is doomed, but this is the least experienced BYU team in a long time. The MWC breaks into three sections based on experience:

Very experienced:
UNLV
SDSU
TCU

Pretty experienced:
Wyoming
Utah
CSU
AF

Inexperienced:
BYU
UNM

Then there’s talent. Based on the last three years results:

Talented:
TCU
Utah
BYU

Average:
AF
CSU
UW

Lacking:
SDSU
UNLV
UNM

We’ll see what happens, but let’s say you give 1 point for each bottom category, 2 for each middle, and 3 for the top, then you’d have the following rankings:

1- TCU (6 pts)
2- Utah (5 pts)
3- BYU (4 pts)
3- AF (4 pts)
3- UNLV (4 pts)
3- SDSU (4 pts)
3- UW (4 pts)
3- CSU (3 pts)
9- UNM (2 pts)

So, based on experience (UNLV, SDSU), talent (BYU), or a combo of both (CSU, AF, UW), any of the teams not named UNM could rise up and challenge for that 3/4 spots. Now, it’s tough to say who is the most talented (regardless of experience) in the middle because UW/CSU have some recent success but have also choked some years. UNLV/SDSU are both at least a decade of futility, but UW/CSU/UNM are tough (although UNM is inexperienced and untalented based on last year)

BYU has a good if not great offensive line and their top WR’s back, but they lost their top two of their top 3 pass catchers in George and Pitta, Max Hall, and Harvey Unga. So, for them to be close to Air Force sounds about right. I would not be surprised if AFA does finish third, but to count out BYU is a mistake.

3rd in the MWC is not a bad place to start the season.

Unga and Hall just were too good and definitely won’t be replaced by this season, Unga was the leading rusher in the NCAA and Hall was a dominant figure at BYU. Whoever takes Hall’s old spot won’t be as good at the position this year and no one will even come close to replacing Unga for at least the next few years. Now don’t get me wrong, BYU’s offense still will be pretty good with a pretty good WR Core and an amazing Offensive Line. It just won’t be what it was last season.

The Defense is going to be less than it was last year and I think that is why the media is so low on BYU.

Now, the reason I think Air Force is so close to BYU is because of scheduling. BYU has a much tougher non-conference schedule than Air Force. So the reason it is so close is not because of a lack of talent at BYU or an influx of talent at Air Force, it is just simply BYU is losing some stars while Air Force is returning all of its skill players. I know skill players aren’t everything, but the media normally judges teams on their skill players, not their offensive line. The other thing that puts this so close was scheduling, in which BYU has a tougher non-conference schedule than Air Force.

Displacedute, interesting numbers. Is there a site you got that info from? I would agree that this year’s BYU team is the least experienced in a long time. Bronco likened it to the 2007 season, which is pretty accurate. That year, BYU lost their starting quarterback, 2 great tight ends, leading rusher, and some stalwarts in the front seven. They went on to win the conference. Will BYU win the conference this year? I don’t think so, but when they’ve been in this situation before, it has turned out well.

I just think it is interesting that a number of media personnel put Air Force ahead of BYU when they have only slightly more experience and have something as vital as the entire offensive line to replace. Precision blocking is essential to Air Force’s offense, and without significant experience and time to gel as a unit, I won’t expect them to be able to light up the scoreboard.

If Air Force had some line experience coming back, this would be a completely different conversation. Their skill players are quality, and their defense looks like it will be pretty solid. With an experienced O-line, I would probably pick them over BYU, whose front 7 are unproven. But as it stands, given Air Force’s offense, I’m going to have to give the nod to BYU.

Scheduling is something I hadn’t considered, Rebelfan1, and that may have something to do with how the media voted. BYU will definitely need to focus on week 1 with a much-improved Washington team coming to Provo. Heading out to Tallahassee week 3 almost makes Air Force a trap game for BYU. But don’t forget, Air Force will have Oklahoma week 3, so they’ll have a reason to look ahead as well. Also, Air Force starts out against 1-AA Northwestern State. After week 1, BYU will have a much better idea of what it needs to work on than Air Force will, but I can still see how some people would look at those schedules and think Air Force could end up on top.

air force 28 byu 24.