Nevada returns 16 starters from last year’s squad. 9 from an offense that ranked 2nd in the nation in yards per game. 7 from a defense that ranked 96th in yards allowed and 86th in points allowed. They got handled on the road by Colorado State (3-9, 0-8 in MWC) but throughout the season showed they can score in droves. Their average was 38.23, good for 6th highest in the country last year, scoring 50+ in 5 games last year. The defense is definitely a problem because their pass defense was 119th (i.e. only one team in FBS was worse).

BYU returns only 11 starters, though with injuries more than 11 saw significant game time. 4 of the last year’s starting offensive linemen return and all of the wide receivers. Unga leaves for the NFL, but back-up JJ DiLiugi averaged 5.5 yards per carry (though he only carried the ball 45 times to Unga’s 200+). However, by week 4 it is likely that Nelson/Heaps (whoever starts) will be in some kind of rhythm and, against a weak pass defense, should be able to find Chambers or Jacobson with some ease. BYU had a decent defense last year, but a QB with the ability to run the ball has been their Achilles heel for years. Kaepernick ought to have a good day running the ball (he went for over 1000 yards last year).

In the end, I think BYU’s inability to stop a mobile QB hurts them, but Nevada’s inability to defend the pass will hurt them as well. In the end one defense has to come up big. So, I give BYU the win because returning 5 starters from the 28th ranked defense is better than returning 7 from the 96th.