Predicting The Season: BCS Summary For Week 3

by utesfan100 on Jul 29, 2010 3:16 PM PDT

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As each week of previews is completed I will be using the percentages to determine how to count each game. 66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 34% and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

In week three, Utah won the lone conference game over New Mexico. TCU and Colorado State secured the only wins, while UNLV was too close to call. The rest of the MWC took losses. It looks like week three might be a good weekend for MWC fans to schedule a fishing trip.

Wyoming's loss was at the hands of Boise State. I am going to call Houston's trip to UCLA too close to call.

Projected BCS rankings:

2-0 Boise State: #3
3-0 TCU: #8
1-1 Boise State: #13
3-0 Utah: #15
3-0 BYU: #16
3-0 Houston: #18
3-0 Air Force/CSU: #24

I also would expect a couple teams from the other four at-large conference to have picked up some upset wins in the first three weeks and get close to the top 25. Some of those will have suffered losses, eliminating them as Cinderella hopefuls. One or two outsiders will be flirting with the bottom of the top 25.

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team	Conference			Total
Team	PCT	0 Losses	1 Loss	PCT	0 Losses	1 Loss	2 Losses
Utah	0.845	71%	27%	0.840	59%	35%	6%
Air Force	0.610	61%	39%	0.607	13%	56%	31%
TCU	N/A	100%	0%	0.928	79%	20%	1%
SDSU	N/A	100%	0%	0.708	22.5%	67.5%	10%
CSU	N/A	100%	0%	0.610	21%	46%	29%
Wyoming	N/A	100%	0%	0.427	2%	24%	74%
BYU	0.390	39%	61%	0.345	2.5%	24%	48%
New Mexico	0.240	24%	76%	0.145	0%	5%	33%
UVLV	0.070	7%	93%	0.308	1%	17.5%	54.5%

Some silliness still remains in the conference standings due to the limited numbers of games played. Next sim-week the total record percentages will be centered on the expected value of each team.

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