FanPost

Predicting the Season: BCS Summary for Week 2

This post is being promoted to the front page.  It is from BCS Evolution who is adding BCS ramifications each week to be posted here. Make sure to visit their site.

As each week of previews is completed I will be using the percentages to determine how to count each game. 66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 50 and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

For the opening week, Utah won their conference opener and  Air Force and BYU played a hard fought game. SDSU and TCU secured wins, though the latter did so with an FCS opponents. CSU got a coin flip while Wyoming and New Mexico got their first losses.

It will be important to keep an eye on Boise State and Houston through this process. Boise State is off and sits at 1-0 or 0-1. Houston get a win vs. UTEP, but closer to 66% than 100%.

Projected BCS rankings:

1-0 Boise State: #3
2-0 TCU: #8
0-1 Boise State: #14
2-0 Utah: #16
1-0 Houston: #22
2-0 BYU: #252-0

Air Force or CSU, ORV

I also would expect a couple tams from the other four at-large conference to have picked up some upset wins in the first two weeks and get close to the top 25. Teams that won after a big win this week would be very close already.

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team Conference Total
PCT 0 Losses 1 Loss PCT 0 Losses 1 Loss 2 Losses
Utah 0.930 93% 7% 0.880 77% 21.5% 1.5%
Air Force 0.610 39% 61% 0.805 61% 39% 0%
SDSU N/A 100% 0% 0.933 86.5% 13.5% 0%
TCU N/A 100% 0% 0.920 84% 16% 0%
Wyoming N/A 100% 0% 0.580 16% 84% 0%
CSU N/A 100% 0% 0.500 25% 50% 25%
New Mexico N/A 100% 0% 0.098 1% 17.5% 81.5%
BYU 0.390 39% 61% 0.458 20.5% 50.5% 29%
UVLV 0.070 7% 93% 0.153 1.5% 27.5% 71%

 

Some silliness still remains in the conference standings due to the limited numbers of games played.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Mountain West Connection

You must be a member of Mountain West Connection to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mountain West Connection. You should read them.

Join Mountain West Connection

You must be a member of Mountain West Connection to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Mountain West Connection. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker