Predicting the Season: BCS Summary for Week 2

by utesfan100 on Jul 11, 2010 6:30 PM PDT

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As each week of previews is completed I will be using the percentages to determine how to count each game. 66% or more counts as a win. Anything between 50 and 66% is a toss up, and will be discussed as variable.

For the opening week, Utah won their conference opener and Air Force and BYU played a hard fought game. SDSU and TCU secured wins, though the latter did so with an FCS opponents. CSU got a coin flip while Wyoming and New Mexico got their first losses.

It will be important to keep an eye on Boise State and Houston through this process. Boise State is off and sits at 1-0 or 0-1. Houston get a win vs. UTEP, but closer to 66% than 100%.

Projected BCS rankings:

1-0 Boise State: #3
2-0 TCU: #8
0-1 Boise State: #14
2-0 Utah: #16
1-0 Houston: #22
2-0 BYU: #252-0

Air Force or CSU, ORV

I also would expect a couple tams from the other four at-large conference to have picked up some upset wins in the first two weeks and get close to the top 25. Teams that won after a big win this week would be very close already.

Now for a look at the projected standings, using the poll percentages for percent wins, and all votes treated as independent (you want to factor in a correlation coefficient, go ahead and make your own fan post :).

Team	Conference			Total
Team	PCT	0 Losses	1 Loss	PCT	0 Losses	1 Loss	2 Losses
Utah	0.930	93%	7%	0.880	77%	21.5%	1.5%
Air Force	0.610	39%	61%	0.805	61%	39%	0%
SDSU	N/A	100%	0%	0.933	86.5%	13.5%	0%
TCU	N/A	100%	0%	0.920	84%	16%	0%
Wyoming	N/A	100%	0%	0.580	16%	84%	0%
CSU	N/A	100%	0%	0.500	25%	50%	25%
New Mexico	N/A	100%	0%	0.098	1%	17.5%	81.5%
BYU	0.390	39%	61%	0.458	20.5%	50.5%	29%
UVLV	0.070	7%	93%	0.153	1.5%	27.5%	71%