Mountain West Conference Expansion Checkup: Subject of Pac-10 Expansion
Sorry this is out a day late. I thought I had published it, but apparently I didn't.
The MWC Expansion Checkup will happen every Friday and will feature topics of MWC Expansion.
Wednesday afternoon, I read an online story from the Las Vegas Sun about MWC Expansion. In the comments afterward, the subject changed to Pac-10 Expansion. I personally believe the Pac-10 will not expand, but that's just me. I have a lot of reason for it and I wil go over it. But keep in mind, if I do not mention something, please do tell me in the comments.
First off, here are the reasons the Pac-10 will not expand:
The Pac-10 has a unanimous vote rule in order to expand, that means one no vote and expansion doesn't happen. The most probable school to do this would be Stanford. Of the 10 schools in the Pac-10, only two schools are in the green, USC and Stanford. The reason that the Pac-10 is because the schools and league as a whole is gripping for cash. Adding Utah and Colorado would bring a championship game and much more cash, so for every other school except the Pac-10, that makes sense. Another reason Stanford would no-vote is because if Utah and Colorado were annexed, it would split the divisions in two. That means that they don't have a for sure yearly game against USC. Every school wants its game against USC because it always is a sellout and you have a pretty good chance of getting on TV. With the two divisions, you would no longer have that game guaranteed.
The Pac-10 also is currently looking for every other way to make cash other than expansion. The Pac-10 is attempting to change an NCAA Bylaw that states you must have 12 teams and 2 divisions in order to have a championship game. If that bylaw gets changed, than there is absolutely no reason to expand any more because it would just mean more hands in the pot. The Pac-10 has also been said to be talking about creating the Pac-10 Network. Along with that, they are currently in negotiations with the Big 12 in combining TV Deals. If the Pac-10 were to combine TV deals with the Big 12, their TV Revenue would double and kill any Pac-10 Expansion rumors.
Another Reason is that the Pac-10 doesn't have as many good expansion candidates as the Big 10 does. The Pac-10's only viable candidates are Utah and Colorado. The Big 10 has seven good candidates for expasion. Since the Pac-10 doesn't have as many good candidates, some schools might be reluctant to expand. I will go over the candidates I read about in the comments after the jump:
List of Candidates:
Utah
Colorado
Boise St.
UNR
UNLV
(do keep in mind that this is a Las Vegas newspaper that UNLV fans read)
As I said earlier, the only reason the Pac-10 will expand is for money reasons. That means, they are going to add the candidates that will bring in the most money. All revenue in the Pac-10 is shared, that means that for an expansion candidate to make money sense, they are going to have to increase the amount of money every other school makes. That includes adding your hand to the pot.
Utah - Utah is the best candidate for Pac-10 expansion if it were to happen. The main reason why is because they make sense money-wise. They are in a huge market in Salt Lake City and have mostof the city on their side. They would bring so many viewers to a possible Pac-10 Network, that they bring in more cash than they take out. Other reasons include that they do have a great football program, and that would be able to create some more marquee matchups in the Pac-10.
Colorado - The Colorado Buffaloes, although the second best candidate, do not make sense money-wise. Now, you may ask yourself "How is that possible, they have the Denver market!" but they truly don't have as many fans as people think in Denver. As far as fans go, they aren't the only college near the Denver area, they have to fend off 5 other schools to gain fans in Denver. Plus, the Buffaloes haven't done well in football in the last couple of years and that makes it even tougher to get fans to buy a potential Pac-10 network. Colorado brings less to the pot than it takes out and that might stop the Pac-10 from expanding.
Boise St. - At first glance, this may seem like a no-brainer for the Pac-10. An established, well-known and recognized football program with a national gathering, right? Wrong. Boise St. is all of the stuff that I just listed above, but the absolute kiiller here is academics. Boise St. is not a tier-1 academic school. and the Pac-10 schools are very paranoid about keeping the academic prestige at a high level. As far as Boise St. goes, they make all the sense money-wise, they just don't measure up to the Pac-10 in academics and that is what will keep them out.
UNR/UNLV - I only put those schools up there because they were in the comments... These schools have no shot at making it in to the Pac-10, period. If you have a different opinion on this, please let me know in the comments.
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TV deal
If the Big XII/Pac-10 combine for a TV package there is not really a reason for them to expand. Like you said Stanford does not need more money for the school they have I think a top 5 endowment in the country.
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The TV deal would eliminate about 74% of the reason to expand
but a championship game gives about $1million dollars each to the schools.
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
each school??
I thought maybe couple hundred thousand per
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by Jeremy Mauss on May 29, 2010 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Estimates put a Pac-10 title game at $10M per year
And I would argue that Colorado means more to the Pac-10 than Utah does.
Just to debunk a little, market share within a market doesn’t have a whole lot to do with anything. The networks want a team in Denver so they can get the cable companies to carry their network in Denver as a free channel (and not as an extra, much like the BTN here in Seattle). It also gives CBS/FOX/NBC/ABC another market to run the game, therefore generating bigger dollars, and bumping the value of the contract. It helps on both TV deal and Pac-10 Network negoitiations, after that it becomes a problem when the networks are struggling to find viewers, but in the immidate it helps.
US News and World report lists Boise State as a Tier-1 university…but they’re really not. If I’m not mistaken, they were a JC until the mid 70’s. It’s academics, market size, and sports history (beyond 10 years) will keep it out of the Pac-10 for another 50 years.
Also, CU does dominate that market. From what I’ve heard from people in Denver throughout this whole expansion thing, is that CU has a 50% and up share of fans from the area. They’ve all said it’s almost strictly alumni from the others schools that comprise the other fan bases. 50% would be about on par with UW/WSU (Seattle), USC/UCLA (LA), Stanford/Cal (Bay Area), UO/OSU (PDX) and UA/ASU (Phoenix), even Utah since they split with BYU.
UNR/UNLV have zero chance…zero.
by B Money on May 29, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
good points
That is why the Big 10 wants Rutgers, not because NYC will become huge fans and watch the channel. Rather they want a team in that area so that the Big 10 network is not on a pay tier with the most people as possible.
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by Jeremy Mauss on May 29, 2010 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions
plus now that the new ncaa president is from washington (the state) he might just help
the pac-ten get a championship game with just 10 teams. just a thought.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood". Hell is just a word, the reality is much much worse." Event Horizon". Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean, I mean plumb, mad dog mean. cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live or win. That's just the way it is. "The Outlaw Josey Wales". "And that's just what these hustlers look for. They cruise from casino to casino looking for weak dealers the way lions look for weak antelope". Ace Rothstein, The Movie "Casino" 1995. My name is puzzy, puzzy galore. I must be in heaven. "Goldfinger" The man with the midas touch. To protect the sheep you gotta catch the wolf, and it takes a wolf to catch a wolf. "Training Day".
by wolfmanshowlforever on May 29, 2010 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd like it more to help launch an investigation into Kentucky basketball recruiting...
but I’ll digress.
every where calipari has been their has been problems.
i guarantee he coaches in the nba now.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood". Hell is just a word, the reality is much much worse." Event Horizon". Now remember, when things look bad and it looks like you're not gonna make it, then you gotta get mean, I mean plumb, mad dog mean. cause if you lose your head and you give up then you neither live or win. That's just the way it is. "The Outlaw Josey Wales". "And that's just what these hustlers look for. They cruise from casino to casino looking for weak dealers the way lions look for weak antelope". Ace Rothstein, The Movie "Casino" 1995. My name is puzzy, puzzy galore. I must be in heaven. "Goldfinger" The man with the midas touch. To protect the sheep you gotta catch the wolf, and it takes a wolf to catch a wolf. "Training Day".
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jun 1, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree with that BUT 1 item
and that is CU does NOT dominate the Denver Market.
Nebraska does. CU would be 2nd in “college” interest, but that’s not saying much. Denver is a pro-sports town. Or rather it’s a Broncos/NFL town.
I live in Denver, and I’m really surprised by the lack of interest in college sports and football here. Coming from Oklahoma, it was a bit of a culture change.
But if anyone says, “We want CU because all the people in Denver will watch them, and we can get on cable there” is missing the mark on where CU athletics ranks here.
I’m sure that’s how it will be sold to the TV people….and on paper, it makes sense, but in practical terms, it’s more myth than reality.
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
So true
Just like the old WAC that tried to say that they had Houston with Rice, Bay Area with San Jose, Dallas with SMU/TCU. Yes in theory you have a lot of people in that area but how many people in Houston care about Rice vs. Wyoming NONE!
I grew up in Houston for my first 22 years and it is a pro town and then Texas and Texas A&M. Rice is nothing they get mentioned around this time of year for Baseball, but no one tunes in for Rice football.
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by Jeremy Mauss on May 29, 2010 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Nobody is really saying that about CU
they want a team in the Denver market to put the PTN on the basic teir and to get a bigger geographic footprint for advertisers.
Phoenix is a pro town as well…but it’s the 12th largets market in the us. UA and ASU take a backseat to the Cardnials and Diamondbacks…who take a backseat to golf and other recreational activities. We just want to claim that market.
If we land Denver and Utah it literally expands our geographic footprint to include nearly 30% of the entire population of the US…that’s alot of negotiating power.
Although it seems more and more likely that Utah/CU won’t happen. Texas/TAMU is about the only viable option at this point and it’s not really all that viable.
maybe I didn’t put it clear enough, as I was trying to be nice to CU
If you want Denver and it’s college football fans and it’s eye balls watching TV for your conference, you don’t take CU…you take Nebraska.
No one in Colorado cares about CU sports..not even CU alums.
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
They've got pot to smoke
And frisbee to play
by B Money on May 29, 2010 11:29 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
As I said above, I think you're dead wrong.
I grew up in Colorado. CU was HUGE here for a long time. It’s certainly down now, but I don’t think it would take much for people to jump back on board.
I agree
I was not saying CU is like Rice with their respective markets. I totally agree that they want CU to put their tv package in Denver. CU IS MUCH bigger in Denver then Rice is in Houston I was just doing a comparison.
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by Jeremy Mauss on May 30, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Nebraska dominates the Denver market? Really?
I haven’t seen that at all. Maybe now that CU is down, but back when CU was good, there’s no way Nebraska dominated. In my opinion, Denverites WANT CU to be good, above other local teams. I suspect you hadn’t moved to Denver yet back when CU was good. It might seem like they don’t dominate now, but I don’t believe that’s really true.
Pac-10
there is only one other school that Stanford would vote yes on and that is Texas, which brings up a ton of other problems.
Personally I don’t think the Pac-10 expands at all…BUT, I wouldn’t be surpised if they went to 12 teams so they get the Championship game.
The issue is who? If there is a TV deal with the Big 12, then CU is moot either way. Utah, would be a key for the Salt Lake City Market…but would Stanford vote for them.
Texas….Is multiple articles just to themselves.
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
You could do about 5 posts on the PAC 10 and texas alone.
That shouldn’t happen unless the Pac 10 wants to jump through hoops
UNLV is going all the way this year!
1: Texas and the Big 12
2: Texas and the Big 10+
3. Texas as an independent
4: Texas and the SEC
5: Texas and the Pac-10
6: Texas and do they have tag-alongs
7: Inside the State of Texas politics and conference realignment
etc
etc
etc
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
Stanford voting no is why Texas isn’t already in the Pac-10 though, after the demise of the SWC Texas tried to go to the Pac-10 first, but Stanford no-voted them.
by HawkeyedFrog on May 29, 2010 9:11 PM PDT up reply actions
actually
Stanford voted no on A&M…which at the time was kind of a package deal. This time around, and lessons learned, some think UT could get away from their hangers-on.
I’m not so sure about that though.
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
doubt it
If Texas goes the legislative will go down in an epic fight to make sure A&M goes with.
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by Jeremy Mauss on May 30, 2010 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions
especially with the Governor being an A&M grad, and one of his best pals and advisers, a big shot with Texas Tech.
A&M can stand on their own with every conf, BUT the Pac-10. I could see some kinda deal where one went one way, and the other another so long as both knew they were taken care of.
Tech….well, that’s a different matter.
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
A&M could hold up in the Pac-10 alone
They’re a Teir-1 highly ranked research University, they have a fairly solid sports tradition and they deliver that Texas TV market that we want.
The main goal is Texas, becuase they garner extra money besides the TV deal stuff, but TAMU could hold up.
UNLV/UNR
Really, until the serious Pac 10 expansion rumors started flying earlier this year, I expected UNLV and Nevada to be the Pac 10’s targets when expanded to 12… in 2025 or so.
They're terrible academically
There is less than zero percent chance unless they raise their academic profile. I believe one of them is actually tier-3.
That, Las Vegas isn’t a huge market, they have sub par facilities and a lot of people from LV are transplants.
by B Money on May 29, 2010 11:39 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
But LV is one of the largest markets
not already in one of the BCS conferences. Only Salt Lake City (Ok, I’m not counting New York and the North East) and San Diego would be larger. Albuquerque would be after Las Vegas as Metro areas not included with BCS conference team/following in it’s area.
Now…if the Big 12 were raided hard by the Big 10 and/or the SEC and Pac-10. I could see the surviving Big 12 adding UNLV (or the MWC adding the left over Big 12) especially if there still a deal on the table with the Pac-10. That would get the TV’s…and get around the Pac-10 actually having to take them in.
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
thats a safer statement
than saying “the sun will come up tomorrow”
Colorado Rockies correspondent at My Team Rivals (www.mtrmedia.com/rockies) and my own site Rockies Reporter (www.rockiesreporter.wordpress.com) and one of the top Rockies writers at the Bleacher Report.
Don't see it happening any time soon...
If the pac ten does expand, it would be very late in the conference expansion process, after the other guys have played out their moves. The Pac Ten would only respond as a reaction to the other conferences’ having done so, rather then in any kind of preemptive effort. The Pac Ten is the most elitist institution of all the BCS conference, and are extraordinarily reticent to consider expansion.
by SanFranciscoStateGaters on May 29, 2010 11:01 PM PDT reply actions

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