SB Nation's Bracketology And The Bubble Watch

The latest bracketology is out for SB Nation and again the Mountain West is in with four teams: New Mexico (3), BYU (4), UNLV (9), San Diego State (12).  The Aztecs are part of the last four in with some other teams:

Last Four In: Florida, Rhode Island, San Diego State, UAB
First Four Out: Mississippi State,
Mississippi, South Florida, Connecticut 
Next Four Out: Dayton,
Arizona State, Washington, Memphis

The Aztecs would be best served to win today and at least one game in the tournament, but  those wins will not carry much RPI rate compared to who the others could play.  Well, Rhode Island and UAB are in a similar situation as San Diego State.  The Azets want the group of teams in the first four out and next four out to lose early in their conference tournament.  Conneecticut and South Florida face off today which could elimante the loser, unless the losing team makes a deep run in the Big East tournament.

Here are links to the bracket, seed list, and tracking spreadsheet.

Now on to the bubble watch whereo her teams that could snipe a bid from the Aztecs are teams that blow it in their conference tournament.  SB Nation's Bubble Watch feel these leagues have a shot at two teams:

Shot At Two (9)

West Coast: Gonzaga (lock)
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (somewhat safe)
Conference USA: UTEP (somewhat safe)
Pacific-10: California
Western Athletic: Utah State
Colonial: Old Dominion
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena

The biggest threat to San Diego State is that Gonzaga, Butler, Northern Iowa, or UTEP do not win their conference tournament which would steal a bid.  Utah State will have another gaudy record and if they somehow do not pull out a WAC tournament win both the Aggies and the other bubble teams will be sweating. Then there is the Pac-10, Cal is the favorite but will the committee give the Pac-10 two teams just because they are 'power conference'?

For another perspective here is Joe Lunardi's last four teams into the 2010 NCAA tournament records are D-1 only.

Team name W-L RPI    SOS         W-L vs. RPI top 50
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 20-10  61  
      63 4-4
Connecticut Huskies 17-13  
49        4 3-8
Rhode Island Rams 21-7 29       57 2-4
San Diego State Aztecs 19-8  33    
      53 2-5
Dayton Flyers 19-9 41       37 3-6
Memphis Tigers 22-8 51       78 2-5
UAB Blazers 23-6 42 
    106 1-2
Mississippi State Bulldogs 21-9 59     126 1-3

 

Aztecs have the second best RPI, but their top 50 RPI is nothing special that could be what makes them a bubble teams.  The 19 division one wins is a concern and if things go to plan the Aztecs will finish 21-9 with a win today, a conference tournament win, but then a loss to either New Mexico or BYU.  That also woul put their record against top 50 RPI to 2-6.  A trip to the MWC finals should put the Aztecs in the field of 65.

Stay tuned to the Mountain West Connection and SB Nation's Bubble Watch with updates on teams that would effect bubble team, but more specifically San Diego State.

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