I Come in Peace: The Pac-10 vs. MWC debate (long)
This is being promoted to the front page from a fan shot
SBN member/MWC fan, wolfmanshowlforever and myself, have been having a very heated debate across quite a few of the blogs on SBN (namely on Everyday Should be Saturday). He recently challenged me to come to MWConnection and voice my opinion here, and bring the debate to the fans of the MWC.
Mainly, the debate has been about the MWC's 6-2 record against the Pac-10 (in 2008), versus my assertion that the Pac-10 is a superior conference (top to bottom). Basketball is not part of this debate, since clearly for this year I have no defense of my conference, it sucks, plain and simple.
Now, I'm a reasonable person. I understand that homerisim gets the best of us from time to time. So, I guess what I'll do is throw out my side of the argument, and transcribe some of what has been discussed by Wolfman and myself. I'm hoping for a fair debate, no name calling, but since you're going to (I am just as likely to do so)...explain why the person is such a "stupid Pac-10 humping retard".
Disclosure: I am a Washington Husky fan. More important to this debate, I am a Pac-10 fan...except Oregon...those guys can suck it.
I guess I'll start with some of the transcripts of debates between myself, and wolfmanshowlforever.
These are all taken from EDSBS. In the interest of fair play, I'll post the string leading up to wolfman's outburst.
HoodRiverDuck: Oregon isn't ranked, at all?CaDuck: Seriously.
How the f**k can you rank Oregon State/Troy/Iowa State/Air Force/Utah (and many others) above Oregon? 18 starters return. 18. Why am I even responding to a top 25 poll this outlandish? Sigh.
QuackinAK: Dude he has Washington as the highest ranked team in the Pac 10 he is obviously an idiot.
B Money: An idiot LIKE A FOX!!!
wolfmanshowlforever: b money i make more money on college football, basketball and mma then you will
ever make if you even wager on it.. what state are you from? i live right here in nevada. i usually stay in lake tahoe/ reno area but i goto vegas when there is a big mma event. btw how many live mma events have you gone too? the pac – ten for the thrid season(this upcoming season) will be much worse than the mountain west conference. say hi to friends at bloody elbow. lol. it says it all in my profile. peace.
Right about now is when I got upset. More about the MWC > Pac-10 comment than the rest of it. So naturally I retorted, and the following banter ensued.
Seriously?I can’t bring myself to indulge you in this retarded debate. I’m sure you’re a fantastic sports bettor, far better than I am. It’s not my profession, nor will it ever be. It’s a hobby to me, although I do happen to be quite good at it.
I will however indulge you on the MWC vs. Pac-10/any other conference including the WAC debate. The MWC has three teams that have any history or big time talent. I’ll give TCU, BYU and UTAH credit for building quality programs in a poor quality conference. I will not give the MWC credit for being any better than the 7th best conference (from top to bottom) in the nation.
The Pac-10 has had a few down years, after losing a ton of talent to the NFL it’s bound to happen. Even at that rate, the top 3 in the MWC has had to capitiize on the middle of the down Pac-10 to claim any kind of dominance. Here are 5 reasons why every person who legitimately thinks the MWC is anything higher than the 6th best conference is stupid.
- A better bowl record doesn’t matter when your top teams play the middle of the Pac-10 and the middle of the WAC.
- A better head to head record will matter when the Pac-10 teams playing in these bowl games aren’t coming off huge letdown games (I know Alabama fans can understand this). Also see point #1.
- The top three in the MWC only lost a combined total of 3 conference games in 2009. However, they were all to each other. Air Force managed to finish 5-3, as the only other team with a conference winning record.
- The MWC had 3 teams in the final BCS top 25. The Pac-10 had 5. The Big-10 had 4. The SEC had 3 (all in the top 12). The Big-12 had 3 (with the preseason favorite losing their starting QB for the year). The Big East had 3 (Cincy finished higher than TCU). The ACChad 3 (with 2 of three playing tougher NC slates than any of the MWC teams). The WAC had 1 (which happened to stomp the life out of the MWC’s "best").
- The MWC fourth place team Air Force played a blistering Non Conference slate of Nicholls State, Navy and Minnesota. They lost 2 of 3, backed into a bowl game and beat another Mid-Major. That bowl game was their marquee win.
Just because you think something doesn’t make it true. I have yet to find one person who can make any argument that even comes close to convincing me to rethink this.
I will stand by most of these points. I will however digress on the placement of the MWC. I can not really argue if anyone places the MWC anywhere between the 4th and 6th best conference. Anyhow, let's continue.
wolfmanshowlforever: i love the letdown theory. all the aq bcs conferences use itmotivation for a game is put squarely on the coach. your coach can’t get your team to play well it’s the coaches and assitant coaches fault. utah vs california the 10 point win was not indicative of the game. cal scored a scrub td with a 30 yard penalty that helped them. so the game was not even that close and we won the game with a freshman qb. as for byu’s total destruction of oregon state there is nothing else to say but to say oregon state was very over-rated. wait till next year the mwc will be much stronger from top to bottom and as for you saying the mwc is the 7th best conferecne is the country i have seen every sports outlet from espn to fox sports saying the mwc was the fourth best conference these last two years. here i’ll give you the score of two games on september 2nd 2010. tcu plays oregon state. 35 -17. utah opens up with pittsburgh ,will be getting points and will win 31 -17. now you have it in writing. pac-ten in decline. mwc on a serious upswing.
the hammer falls on usc in 5 weeks. oregon probably will have 7 or 8 players with felony’s before they even start the season. let’s see how good andrew luck will be without the help of toby gerhart. let’s see him carry the load. he will fail. washington state will still suck. the one team i do like is the washington huskies. good coach and i like the best dual threat qb in the nation in jake locker. i even think they will beat byu b/c teams that don’t have qb’s with ncaa starting experience 80% of the time get beat by teams who have qb’s coming back. make it 90% when they are extremely good qbs. arizona state might go 7-5. arizona will backslide. is nicholls state better than charleston southern or college of charleston? i’ll tell you why if you reply.
B Money: Telling me scores of 2010 games isn't proof...while motivation is squarely on the coaches, the fact remains that the teams were completely deflated and did not play to their abilites. The letdown theory is completely legitimate. While not an excuse, you cannot say that opening day on a neutral field that those games would have gone the same way.
- USC gets (worst case) a 1 year bowl ban, and only a top 20 class instead of top 5. (+ even with the bowl ban)
- Until Oregon loses a real contributer, they’ll be a top 5 team. (+)
- Andrew Luck is the real deal, however losing Gerhart will hurt. (=)
- ASU will be a bottom feeder in the conference. But will still be better than the bottom six in the MWC. (-)
- OSU will have a tough time replacing Canfield, but they rely on the run. (=)
- WSU can’t do any worse than last year (although possible, I pray for the sake of football they don’t). (=)
- Cal will be a force next year, Vereen will pick up right where Best left off. (=/+)
- Zona will be better with Foles having another year and only losing Grigsby as a big time contributer. (=)
- UCLA just yanked in a top ten class, if they can figure out a QB they could end up a big suprise. (+)
- UW will be a ton better with the nation’s best QB, and a whole host of skill players back. (+)
…I see 2 teams that will for sure be bad. And both (WSU and ASU) could probably beat alot of the teams in the MWC. The rest of the conference stays the same (Stanford, UA, OSU, Cal) or gets better (UW, USC even without the bowl game, UCLA, Oregon). 80% of the league could bowl eligible next year.
I just can’t believe that anyone really believes that the MWC is better than any of the Big 6 at this point. They have zero depth. That is the bottom line, the MWC is top heavy. That makes them less of a conference than the 6 AQ’s. While they’re top teams may in fact be better than a few of the AQ’s, the worst of the Big-6 could beat the middle of the MWC on the road at any point last year.
As for the Non-con schedules, ASU had a softy last year even though they scheduled UG when they were strong. USC, UW, Oregon, Stanford, OSU, UA, Cal and UCLA all played better NC skeds than all but the top of the MWC.
This is not debateable…unless I’m crazy…please if anybody disagrees with me, tell me. I know this guy is clownshoes either way, but I’d really like to know if I’m wrong.
Once again, I'll stand by these points, except one. WSU probably can't beat much of anybody...okay...maybe New Mexico.
wolfmanshowlforever: utah played cal in california in poinsettia bowl.the game was not even close. airforce and wyoming will be much better next year and gives us more depth as a conference. sdsu and csu will be better. unlv and new mexico are lost causes. btw, the mwc has won the bowl record percentage cup three times. no other conference can say that. not even the sec. we are definitley better than the big east. that is a fact. cincy was not even considered for a possible bcs ncg even though they have aq bcs conference status. yes the math left them some small percantage points away from texas but so was tcu. new mexico screwed up tcu’s chance of being ahead of cincy and it was a minuscule percentage amount. then cincy just got blown away by florida. that game was a joke. at least tcu/boise was a good defensive battle. tell me about the depth of the big east.? same with the pac-ten last year. ucla acted like they won the ncg becuase the beat TEMPLE in a bowl game . lol. 2-5 in bowl games is mighty impressive while the mwc went 4-1. in 2008 season the mwc went 6-1 against your mighty pac-ten conference in regular season. look it up while you put your makeup on your clown face.
Bowl Record % cup is not tough...when your bowl games are against
- MWC #1 vs. Pac-10 #4
- MWC #2 vs. Pac-10 #6 or WAC#4
- MWC #3/4 vs. WAC #2 or C-USA #3
- MWC #5 vs. WAC #1
Your toughest Bowl game is against the WAC #1…and even that’s debatable since the Pac-10 #4 is generally as good as the WAC champions.
Done…
I am a believer in what wolfman calls "letdown theory". The idea that a team who's coming off a crushing loss plays worse, or at least with no emotion. I believe it's real, and while not an excuse...is a legitimate subject to talk about in this debate, well get to it later.
I'm interjecting myself in here because I cannot tell you anything that wolfman was trying to say. I get the gist of his argument, but I'll let him make it. That said, this is a major sticking point for me. The bowl record cup. I just don't see how this matters (I hate it when Pac-10 fans wave the 5-0 season we had in 2008 around). Bowl games (not including BCS games) are a letdown for nearly all auto-qualifier teams. Some however (like UCLA) revel in the fact that they get to play again after stringing together some wins at the right time.
wolfmanshowlforever: we won it three times and what about the 6-1 we went in the regular season in 2008?i’ll use the same excuse you guys use that byu lost to arizona in vegas bowl that year. they did not want to be there. plus all 4 wins were destruction of their opponents except wyoming who was a 2 td dog. you lose b money now go away.
That's great that the top of your conference destroys the middle of the P10/WAC/CUSAreally…I’m impressed.
On to the stats that matter.
Regular Season: (rankings listed are conference finish)
- #1 and undefeated Utah(home), sneaks past #3 Oregon State 31-29
- #3 BYU beats winless #10 Washington thanks to the refs 28-27
- #3 BYU beats 4-8 #8 UCLA 59-0
- #7 New Mexico(home) beats #4 Arizona 36-28
- #6 UNLV beats #6 Arizona State
- #2 TCU beats #7 Stanford
- #4 Cal(home) beats #5 Colorado State
Let’s discuss. #2 BCS ranked Utah, who beat the mighty Alabama (letdown theory anyone?) managed to barely get by the #3 Pac-10 team at home. You’re number 3 team (right where the cutoff in talent is) got a gift from the refs against the worst team in College Football in 2008. They also managed to get past the #8 team in UCLA…what a mamoth pair of victories.
Oh snap! Let’s go further. 4 of the 6 victories were at home. 4 of the 6 were also by the top 1/3rd of the conference . Outside of the top 3 teams, no victory came over a Pac-10 team that finished higher than 4th. Not exactly a fair sample size right? For the one year you use as the base for your entire argument.
The best win was New Mexico at home over Arizona, who later went on to beat BYU (just after finishing 4th in the Pac-10), but I suppose letdown theory applies here, right? Right! Just not in the UU/Bama, Utah/Cal or BYU/OSU games.
Want another fun fact? In 2004, Utah and BYU finshed 1st and 3rd respectively. In 2005, when TCU joined the conference, they won it. If they hadn’t joined, BYU and Utah would have again finished top 3, instead Utah finished 4th. In 2006, 2008, 2009 Utah, BYU and TCU finished in the top 3. 2007 is the only year in the last 6, that two of the aforementioned teams did not finish top 3 (I won’t even mention that BYU won the conference that year, oops). For Christ’s sake, the big 3 even own basketball.
Bottom line, what I’ve been saying all along. The MWC is not an elite conference, because it’s too top heavy. I like MWC football, I think TCU is an outstanding program, I’ll even cop to liking Utah. But you have to be dumb to think in any way shape or form that they’re a better top to bottom conference than the Pac-10, even if for some reason you could find compelling evidence that they were in 2008…that makes one out of 10 years that your measly conference has been around.
Research is a bitch.
I stand by all of this. I really do like MWC football. I play dynasty in NCAA 09 with TCU. I can't make this more clear, I am not here to bash the MWC. I just think it's not at the highest level yet due to the inbalance.
wolfmanshowlforever: it's been two years we have been better.and 2010 will make it three. 59-0. i’m surprised they did not kick out ucla for that loss. btw byu is my least favorite mwc team but if they stay in the top 25 that is fine with me. you still have not answered the questions about oregon’s dismal display in the rose bowl vs an ohio state team that had lost 4 bcs bowls in a row. usc palying the most vanilla offense in the world in boston college and barely winning b/c a ref made a mistake on a punt return that a usc player pushed the guy from b.c into the ball and they called it wrong and gave the ball to usc on the b.c 20 yard line. ucla beating temple and thinking they won the ncg. classic. 2-5 in bowl games 2-5 in bowl games. plus unlv sucks. beating even wahsington state is an achivement. the psuedo emporer has no clothes. p.s. b money is my bitch and the facts our on my side. thanks for adding to my fanpost.
I never did answer his questions about Oregon, USC or UCLA. So I will now.
- I can't speak much to Oregon's poor play in last year's Rose Bowl. Personally I believe it was more great gameplanning by tOSU than poor play by Oregon (although, admittedly there was some bad play).
- USC played a very vanilla offense, as they have for the last 10 years under Pete Carrol. It's gotten them to the top of the college football heap, and I don't see why this is an issue. There was some bad officiating, much like the BYU/UW game in 2008 (I still get angry seeing that video). I don't think it was enough to swing the entire game, in either case. They won with a true freshman QB, after having lost more than a handfull of starters to the NFL. I should also note, that they beat Rose Bowl Champion: Ohio State...on the road.
- UCLA, won a bowl game in a thrilling manner. If was 18-22 years old and victorious in a bowl game, I might celebrate a lot too. If you watched that game, it was a very emotional come from behind victory. I don't know why this matters in terms of who's a better conference.
- I think the 2-5 record comes back to "letdown theory". Cal and OSU, had just come off huge losses. Cal, getting stomped out by my Huskies and OSU barely missing out on a chance to get to the Rose Bowl. Cal may have been very well out matched in their game, I'm more than willing to admit that. However, week 1, on a neutral field...it's a whole different game. That last statement applies to OSU (and as much as you don't wanna hear it, Alabama as well) to an even greater extent. If those game were turned around we'd be at 4-3 and it would be a moot point.
- I'd also like to add that the fact that we had 7 bowl teams is a feat in and of itself. If I'm not mistaken the MWC had 5.
In summary, I welcome debate from all of you. I don't believe that the MWC has at any point been a better top to bottom conference than the Pac-10. Surely, last year, TCU was better than any team in the Pac-10. But one team does not make a conference. Please feel free to flame away, I'll try to refrain from any more name calling if you will.
Sorry for the length.
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good points
But the letdown argument in my opinion is bogus and a cop out. I know it does happen such as Oregon State with one win away from going to the Rose Bowl and then getting dumped to the Vegas Bowl. However, the team that had the supposed let down was the top reason and never really giving credit to the team that won. The ’Bama vs. Utah game really makes me upset because Alabama had not been to a major bowl game in nearly a decade and while disappointed they should have woken up after the Utes smacked them in the face on that drive, and if you watch the coin toss the Alabama players were really intense. They just were not prepared since they were out late all night, so do not confuse bad prep with unmotivated.
ASU will be a bottom feeder in the conference. But will still be better than the bottom six in the MWC. (-)
I strongly disagree with this one I think ASU would lose to Utah, BYU, TCU, and Air Force without too much trouble. Also, I think SDSU will be improved enough to possibly beat ASU but not get blown out. Also, in 2008 ago ASU lost to UNLV, and that was when ASU was a top 15 team and the game was at home.
I know bowl records are deceiving especially since the MWC bowl lineup is a joke, unless the champ goes to a BCS bowl then the bowls level out some. But getting those wins are important and do show some sign of being good, but I get your point.
My opinion on how people say the bottom of the league is bad, well that is hard to argue but EVERY league has bottom dwellers. Just look at Vanderbilt, Washington went 0-12 two years ago, Washington State, Maryland, Virginia, and Indiana all very bad teams and most whom play FCS and low level non-AQ schools to try to get wins. So, to say the MWC bottom is worse then the other Big Six is not entirely true. It is bad but not any worse then most leagues.
On to the real issue of where the MWC stands. I agree with you that the top 3 is as good as any league with the exception of the SEC and Big 10 last year. Every other league is debatable from 3-7 when comparing the top 3 teams. When you factor in the entire league the best I could see the MWC is 5th. The reason for that is the top teams out weigh the other top teams to put them in that range. On the worst end of the spectrum the MWC is on equal footing with the ACC and Big East, and depending on the year the Pac-10 or Big 10.
Letdown theory is the dumbest theory ever
You lost an important game so it gives you the right to suck in the next game? Sounds like a cop out for being overrated and losing two games in a row. If anything you should go out and destroy that team to show you do belong, just like Florida did to Cincinnati this year.
Let me see if I can spin this… The Rams lost their first MWC league game, but they wanted to go undefeated, so instead they lost the last 7 cause it was a let down to not sweep the league. Anyone going to buy that?
Bring back Fum's Song!
haha
I agree with you on it being a cop out, but I can understand if there is a let down but it should not be an excuse when a team loses to a non-AQ school in BCS game. The same can be said for BYU when they lost to Arizona in the Vegas bowl which was BYU’s fourth straight appearance.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 13, 2010 8:11 AM PST up reply actions
Bottom can beat some people, but it's all about the Benjamins.
The MWC worst last year, my Rammies, still beat a big-12 team on the road in CU, and also a bowl team in Nevada. Then proceeded to beat no one the rest of the year in the MWC.
I still voted the Pac-10 better top to bottom but it’s squarely cause of money. If the Rams didn’t just build a new indoor practice facility they rival a Texas high school in terms of facilities and equipment. Getting those big fat checks from BCS and TV every year and having tons of boosters helps like you couldn’t believe! The fact that the MWC can compete with the PAC-10 and other automatic bid conferences should be embarrassing to them.
It is also a big nod to all the coaches and athletic programs in the MWC that can put together good programs on tight budgets. This is more directed at Air Force and the lower schools that have tough time getting big recruits, but the top-3 are paving the way so we can’t forget them. The MWC is like the Minnesota Twins of college football by playing way above our salary mark. Give the MWC an automatic bid and extra cash and we are easily better then the PAC-10 in a couple years.
Bring back Fum's Song!
of course
Just look at Cincy who was in C-USA and then a few years in the Big East with the BCS money and they were back-to-back Big East champs and nearly was in the title game. Imagine if the top three had BCS money they would be in the top 5 every year and be competing for BCS titles.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 13, 2010 8:14 AM PST up reply actions
Good debate topic
Thanks for writing this up, it would be fun to revisit after next football season.
Bring back Fum's Song!
one thing b money did not say was my fanpost on every day should be saturday said clearly
it was a biased poll. then not just bmoney came on and said it was a joke, people from iowa , arkansas, and i think boston college said they should be in the top 25. i destroyed this guy with facts on the mwc and it was not even close. he even listed the 6 games we won in 2008. the two that stick out. byu’s 59-0 vs ucla. last time i checked even charelston southern (or college of charleston) scored three points against defending nc florida gators. ucla just plain gave up and have done so many times in the past. the most underachieving team in fbs football. then there was the unlv win. we all know unlv is the worst team in football in the past decade in the mwc. any win over a pac-ten team is good. then he mentioned a few squekers. i don’t care if you won by a hail mary pass on the road you still won and it’s a good win. i told him we would be fair and jeremy mauss runs a fair blog and would not kick him off unless he went ballistic. like i said on the other blog we have been better the last two years. head to head we win the series and we will definitely will be better than the pac-ten in 2010 with all their problems mounting up. i even praise the washigton huskies qb (jake locker from ferndale high) b/c he will be the best dual threat qb in the nation. i was fair but he forgot to say it was a biased poll and you guys can look it up. you can’t miss it. it’s the largest fanpot there. ramble on.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 13, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
It's close and getting closer each year, but I still give the Pac-10 a slight edge.
however, I disagree with this statement:
I will not give the MWC credit for being any better than the 7th best conference (from top to bottom) in the nation.
Come on man, worse than the Big East & ACC top to bottom? (not talking history, talking about right now)
And it really bugs when people discredit Utah’s 14 point win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl because the Tide “didn’t want to be there.” It’s an excuse. Utah won and won convincingly. They deserve full credit.
I do agree with your argument though. Top to bottom, the Pac-10 is better. It’s hard to argue against it. The Pac-10 had 5 teams last season that were Top-25 material. At the top though, I think the MWC is just as strong.
The gap will continue to narrow, especially if the MWC becomes a BCS conference. A Pac-10 expansion, of course, can really hurt the MWC and is a smart move IMO to keep the power in the hands of the Pac-10 out West.
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by Michael Rueckert on Mar 13, 2010 1:43 PM PST reply actions
I had to leave town for the weekend
But this great stuff guys. I’ll continue this on Monday when I can get to a computer.
As for wolfman, I merely made a joke because you had my Huskies as the top pac-10 team. I think you took it wrong. I never bashed the poll.
Keep it coming!
by B Money on Mar 13, 2010 2:10 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Nobody is saying the WAC is better than either one, but.....
Boise State beat both of your champions and allowed about 65 rushing yards combined, with a minuscule 3rd down conversion rate in both games, (did Oregon ever get a first down in that game…. I forget) so I guess the Broncos are better than the best of either one of your conferences.
Ok, go ahead, tell me how depth would take its toll and both TCU and Oregon would have beat them on another week, but they just “didn’t come to play….” It’s all in good fun, but scoreboard baby, the first and last games of the year don’t lie.
we want your team in our conference to make it stronger. i have said it many times on the boise blog.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 14, 2010 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
BSU was a better team than anybody in either conference last year...
but when your second best team is Idaho, who came stumbling home…it doesn’t say much. The WAC isn’t too far behind the MWC though.
yes the WAC is far behind
Colorado State who was terrible beat Nevada who went to a bowl game, Fresno lost to Wyoming, and La. Tech is just below Air Force. The WAC is not near the MWC in overal talent. Utah State and New Mexico State are terrible. I know this sounds like I am talking out of both ends in regards to the MWC and Pac-10, but without Boise the WAC would be barely above the Sun Belt.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 14, 2010 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Eh, I can go with that...
but the last few years with UH making a big run, and Idaho poised to take some steps this year (although replacing Enderlee will be tough) I think they’re firmly in the #8 spot. Fresno is generally a tough out for anyone as well. Can’t forget about Nevada either.
On second thought, I do think they’re closer than you give them credit for. They have less bad teams but less very good teams as well.
really?
I think the top of the MWC outweighs the WAC brings, because outside of Boise no team comes close to the top three or maybe even top 4. Idaho was improved and Nevada picked it up in the last half of the season. If Fresno were to get back to what they were a few years back as with Hawaii then I can agree.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 14, 2010 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, last year they were bad...
I’m just saying (and really all along this has been a 5 year sample sort of deal) that the WAC isn’t far behind. UNR, BSU, UH and FSU are all quality programs who have the facilites and coaches in place to put a top 25 product on the field.
Their top 4 programs may be on the rise to be good in the next couple of years
But by then I expect to have had the MWC expand and take Boise St. and Fresno St. from that conference, leaving them far behind. Not to mention UNR is also part of the discussion of MWC Expansion and is right behind Houston for that spot. If UNR is somehow able to impress Craig Thompson that they are a better overall fit for the MWC, than they would be invited instead of Houston. Leaving Hawaii as the only great club according to you? That’s expecting they are great, because they were my biggest letdown last season
Rebel Rock
true
Both leagues have shifted huge with top of the MWC pulling away and non-Boise State part of the WAC dropped Traditionally it has been closer to each other but the MWC slightly better.
Also, lets get back to the Pac-10 vs. MWC talk.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 14, 2010 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions
In 2008 MWC was better
Pac-10 was having a down year.
2009 Pac-10 was better top to bottom, but at the top our champion was ranked 4th in the country and undefeated, while your champion Oregon was ranked 7th and was 10-3
(8-1). You guys had more ranked teams than us, but by records it was pretty close. We had four teams that either had a better record than your 2nd place and down teams or the same record. Given, the scheduling in the Pac-10 is very stacked, but when you actually have 3 teams that are higher than or the same record as your champion, then you know something is up. It was pretty close for the debate over who was better top to bottom. Wolfman, I do disagree with you on UNLV being a lost cause. Last year we went 5-7 and would have gone to a bowl game if Wyoming wasn’t able to drive down and kick a game-winning field goal to take the spot ahead of us.
2010 MWC will once again be better top to bottom. I think this year is the year BYU runs the table and goes to a BCS Bowl. TCU and Utah not far behind though. Air Force has gone to the Armed Forces Bowl 3 straight years and won it every time. Air Force’s recruiting took a big jump this past recruiting year and should be better this year, I say around 10-3 or 9-4. Wyoming showed in the New Mexico Bowl last season (against Fresno St. I might add, who is a formidable opponent) that they can beat good teams, and what really impressed me was their freshman QB. This could be another big jump for Wyoming football. I say either 9-4 or 8-5. UNLV has gone 5-7 both of the past 2 seasons. Most of their talent is returning, although they do need a new wide receiver, and they have a new head coach in Bobby Hauck who was put on ESPN’s top 25 recruiters list, given the late start he had. Hauck doesn’t run a spread offense and will fit Omar Clayton much better. As for non-conference scheduling, BYU opens up against Texas. Every MWC team has a better non-conference schedule this year than last year.
Pac-10 is losing alot of it’s talent, USC is getting penalized, Oregon has lost key players in Jeremiah Masoli, Toby Gerhart is no longer at Stanford. Pac-10 will be worse than last year and MWC is improving this year, MWC will be better this coming football season.
2011: MWC will explode with competition because I believe this will be the year that 3 teams join the MWC, Boise St. Fresno St. and Houston (who just strengthened their basketball resume to the MWC by beating UTEP in the C-USA final). By then we will have four top of the line teams. Four So-So to Good teams. And four bad teams (that is assuming that not one of the bottom feeders in the MWC gets better). With that lineup, it will be hard to argue that the Pac-10 is a better conference at the point. Because of BCS Evaluation, I think we might be considered the 4th best conference at the point (better than Pac-10, Big East and ACC)
Bottom line is that MWC is on the rise, Pac-10 is losing talent and being penalized and as a result will be in decline the next few years.
Rebel Rock
BYU??
I think they are going to take a step back, especially if they start Heaps right away. BYU plays Texas in 2011 not 2010. I agree 2010 will be similar to 08 between the leagues because of Oregon’s suspensions, USC will be good but not great, and I think it will come down to UCLA if they get a QB, Oregon State, and Cal. Perhaps Washington if they can get it together.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 14, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
byu is not running the table with jake heaps at qb. utah and tcu have a much better chance.
you are right about masoli. they now have to play a guy named costa. he has some statistics but is nowhere the player masoli was. the also lost two wr’s. oregon and usc are screwed. i know it and pete carroll knows it and itf they get repeat offender status it will be much more than probation, some scholarships lost and a 1 year bowl ban. they will have to vacate wins like fsu did and they might get hit with no tv for a year (that one might slip by b/c then it’s political and cali does have the largest population) the ncaa has been nailing schools from the east coast for awhile and i think they are going to throw the kitchen sink at usc.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 14, 2010 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
They'll probably play Costa until he shits the bed...
then Darron Thomas will step up. Thomas scares me, as he’s like Dennis Dixon…more athletic…less experienced.
and we all know what happened to dennis dixon a freak injury that stopped oregon's chance of ever getting to a bcs ncg.
oregon has a history of qb problems. justin roper was another.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 15, 2010 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
and so was Brady Leaf
that doesn’t mean that Thomas is going to blow his ACL and never see the field.
Prior QB’s getting hurt has no effect on future QB’s getting hurt. I will say that Kelley’s offense does have a higher % rate of QB injuries just due to contact, but Thomas is a speedster and finesse guy, he’ll avoid alot more than Masoli.
we will see but oregon is not even winning 10 games next year including
the bowl game.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 15, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Not anymore...
they should get to 8-4 without much of a problem, and 10 is still within reach, just not nearly as likely.
Should Utah be the favorite in the MWC...to bust the BCS at least?
or should TCU still be the pick. I like Utah alot, but they have an unfortunate NC sked this year. Who would have thought ND would have not recovered and that Pitt would be rebuilding. Iowa State is kind of a cheap out, they’re almost always bad…but from an AQ, so it bumps the perception factor.
Scheduling is a bitch. Ask my Huskies. I’m hoping BYU runs the MWC table and breaks into the BCS, after UW beats them unmerciful.
TCU
Since they bring the most back, but it will be close. Utah gets TCU and BYU at home.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 17, 2010 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions
iowa state beat minnesota in their bowl game.
they are on the upswing a little. pitt does not have a qb with starting experience but returns dion lewis (heisman trophy candidate} and will be ranked in top 15. notre dame has been rebuilding for 15 years but it’s late in the season and we get to showcase out team to a national tv audience plus it could be three more wins vs aq bcs conf. teams. that would bring our total to 22 wins over aq bcs schools.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 20, 2010 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh...
and neither of those WR’s were starters. Holland (the Facebook Kid) was a starter for a few games because he was a USC transfer and had a good spring. Then he couldn’t step up and was benched most of the year. Embry was never really better than their 5th option.
that is funny he was a usc transfer and oregon took a chance on him. if usc did not want him
that says it all for me. lol. the facebook incident is hilarious too. since technology is moving fast i believe he was the first fbs player kicked off a team for facebook statements.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 15, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
He's powerful stupid...
I think he was buried at USC, I don’t think it was USC kicking him out. Maybe an UO fan around here can clarify.
I can't predict that far out
since I think that if USC falls, the Pac-10 could become a much stronger top to bottom conference. Maybe.
USC used to be the game that was non-rivalry to get up for in the Pac-10. Everyone knew they had to win to get in good position. Parity creates strong conferences, and with last decades top 2 on the downswing and the bottom 3-4 coming up real fast, it’s a chance for every team to be hungry for a title every week. The W-L could suffer, but the proof will be in the NC slate (see Oregon 2009).
2010 will be the year for the MWC to pull even. BYU will be down, but Utah, TCU, Air Force (maybe not top 25, but better) and Wyoming will be better. If the MWC expands to add FSU, BSU and UH…it’ll be a very good conference. However, I think you’ll see what the Pac-10 sees every year. The top teams won’t be able to run the table when they have to play 5 good teams instead of 2 (3 with a good NC sked). Teams will be worn down and injured more, and while they’d probably get a BCS auto bid, I don’t think they’ll be able to get two teams in with any more frequency than the Pac-10.
It all cycles back to my main point (which I’m sure you’re all tired of hearing) is that the 3-8th place teams in the Pac-10 are better than the 4th in the MWC. It’s a huge dropoff in facilities, talent and history…and that’s hard for anyone to overcome. Just ask WSU.
I disagree with you on Air Force's history
They’ve had some players that were huge back in the 60’s and 70’s and really were good. Other than that I agree with you.
The only thing is yes, maybe the first couple of seasons as a BCS AQ teams won’t run the table like that, but because of the auto-bid, it makes the regular season so much more interesting, and after the first 2 or 3 years these teams will be on par or higher with the Pac-10’s level. If you look at the basic structure of the Pac-10, you have 4 great teams, 3 good teams and 3 bad teams. The basic idea is that the MWC will have 4 great teams, 4 good teams and 4 bad teams. Hopefully the Pac-10-MWC challenge continues and we see some great games in years to come. Pac-10’s days of having the powerhouse team are in decline with USC losing its head coach and receiving penalties and Oregon losing Jeremiah Masoli for 2010, other suspensions are sure to come, they will not have the kind of dominance they have had in the past, I mean who is going to step up? Stanford, who lost Toby Gerhart? Arizona who has less seniors then anyone else? It’s not going to be good for the Pac-10 in the coming years
Rebel Rock
Wether it's UW, UO, UCLA or USC
at least one team has stepped up and taken charge over the last 40 years in the Pac-10. Might I remind you that until 1994, Oregon was the laughing stock of the Pac-10 for 60 years. Up until Pete Carrol was on the scene USC was terrible. UW as bad as they’ve been, went to the Rose Bowl in 2000 and won a National Title in 91. They dominated the 90’s in the Pac-10, and we’re poised to do so into the 2000’s (at least the early part) until a little bracket pool went awry.
As for replacing players I beg to differ. Stanford can replace the great white hope (RB are interchangeable like legos), just as BYU is gonna have to replace Max Hall, and just as Utah has to replace whatshisface after the Sugar Bowl run. That’s the beauty of College Football…every 3-5 years, the landscape of every team changes dramatically. 5 years later…you don’t have the nucleus of a past champion like you do in the NFL.
I don’t think a conference needs a dominant team. In fact it’s been the downfall of the Pac-1 since Pete Carrol arrived. Everyone sees USC and 9 patsies. I’d much rather see a 9-3 team who smashed their tough OOC schedule and got dinged up in confernece go to the Rose Bowl, than a 11-1 or 12-0 team who had nobodies from the Sunbelt and dodged the top conference teams (Florida, I’m looking at you).
That’s another point of contention I have. The Pac-10 plays a 9 team round robin, I think you guys only play 8. That’s another conference game that we have to battle through, whereas most teams use that 4th game for the tuneup against North Middle Tennesee State Community College. I already know, NMTSCC is an underrated program on the rise and it’s not their fault they’re not in a BCS AQ. (I kid!)
The tier idea is correct in my eyes. Except I see the distribution differently. 1 or 2 great teams (top 10), 6 or 7 good teams (top 60) 1 or 2 below average (61- 90) and 1 or 2 bad (below 90). The thing that I can say about the Pac-10 that cannot be said about the MWC is that those 2-4 teams that have been bad, have been at the top in the last 10 years. UW, WSU, UCLA and ASU have all been the laughing stock of the league lately…but all have been top 2 in the conference this decade (maybe not UCLA, I think that was 99 but still). As for the MWC, I see it as 1 or 2 greats, 1 or 2 good, 5 or 6 below average and 1 or 2 bad.
A MWC expansion could push them even with the Pac-10 and possibly higher (and I would think higher than the Big East or ACC as of late). That is if the Pac-10 doesn’t strike first, as there has been talk of the Texas schools (up to 16 teams in that scenario) and/or Colorado/Utah joining. You could end up adding UH, UNR, BSU and FSU at that point and it wouldn’t be enough. It’ll for sure be interesting to visit after the conference skeds get going and we can point to some head to heads and overall non-conference for this year.
That’s one thing I think we can all agree on, CFB can’t come fast enough.
I agree with you about everything except the 1 or 2 great MWC Teams
In my opinion there are currently 3 great teams, Utah, TCU, and BYU.
Although if the Pac-10 strikes first it will be devastating although I don’t think they are in the rush the MWC is in because the Pac-10 already is an AQ. The MWC is rushing to add the teams before the start of the next CFB season because that is the deadline to use their stats for the BCS Evaluation period. Pac-10 doesn’t need to expand and doesn’t need to rush if they want to. MWC shouldn’t get killed by Pac-10 expanding
Rebel Rock
I think they are because their TV deal is up in starting with the 2012 season
and if they want Colorado, which they really do…they need to get it done by August or else they can’t be part of the conference in 2011.
yup
And if they get Utah this summer then all of Utah’s BCS stats go to the Pac-10 which would make the MWC not a factor for a AQ status, well unless they invite Boise then it would be close.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 17, 2010 6:51 PM PDT up reply actions
as the conference gets better from top to bottom we won't have to run the table either
we can have a 1 loss team too.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 15, 2010 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions
agreed, but then isn't that kind of what you guys are holding above me right now?
the whole “your #1 was 10-3” argument. When your conference improves it will surely take less wins to get there. I think that’s proof enough (albeit some of that is definitely media perception) for my argument personally.
Which conference would Utah play if if they had the choice?
As far as I am concerned that pretty much settles the debate. Just like consideration of Bosie State settles the MWC vs. WAC debate.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
Take out the money factor
and I don’t think it is a slam dunk that Utah would go to the Pac-10. Even with the money, I am not so sure that I would leave the MWC if I were Utah. For a full explanation why, read my reasoning on my blogs: collegefootballhaven12.blogspot.com, byufootballtalk.blogspot.com
You're dreaming if you think Utah wouldn't jump...
better Academic and Athletic prestige. It’s all about dollars and the Pac-10 has them. Take out the dollars and you still have 10 tier-1 research universities that UU would love to align themselves with.
Utah would go before the ink drie on an offer.
Even if money was the same the Pac-10 has better history and historically is a better league. Lets see conference champs goes to the Rose Bowl or the Las Vegas bowl and play a 5th pac-10 team. Any team would jump.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 15, 2010 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions
The only reason that Utah wouldn't go to the Pac-10 was if
1. we expanded first and competition got better in the MWC before the teams arrived (UNLV, SDSU, Air Force and Wyoming all improving)
2. The MWC gets a better TV deal that gives alot more cash to Utah such as ditching Versus for ESPN
3. Some MWC schools improve their academics somewhat (add some more departments to their universities)
If the MWC doesn’t do this quick Utah would bolt to the Pac-10 before the ink dried on the offer. If these 3 things happen, then Utah might have to think about it.
Rebel Rock
Still no...
we’ve been over this about a million times (I think that might not be an exageration anymore) on all the Pac-10 blogs. The money from grants and endowments dwarfs the revenue from AD’s. If Utah were part of the Pac-10, it would be a part of the most prestigious academic conference in D-1 (I guess Ivy is D-1 in BB but who cares).
I’m not exactly sure what schools and departments are the flahships at UU, but if they found a niche that nobody in the Pac-10 has filled, they could make literally 10-20 times more money due to the ability to sell the academic angle.
not necessarily
If the MWC knows they will be an AQ league there is no reason for Utah to go. They would all ready be at the top of the MWC. By going to the Pac-10 they would be good but struggle for a few years against the top of the league. I doubt the BCS would let on who is in, plus the Pac-10 would bring an invite before the BCS evaluation is released.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 17, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah...I guess
endowments are huge though, and the academic prestige of the Pac-10 is something that the Presidents won’t give up. That’s why BSU and BYU are out. Utah has the teir-1 status and if they though they could get more in endowments I bet they still go.
I can’t really speak for them…but it seems like any big time university would be crazy not to make a jump to improve the academics in favor of staying at the top of athletics in the conference.
Speaking purely athletics
It all comes down to money, and unless the Pac-10 has that much of a greater tv deal and revenue then I could see Utah go, or I could see them go because the Pac-10 is more well known.
I was speaking purely on a football context that why go to the Pac-10 if your league is now on equal footing for BCS qualification. Utah would still be good in the Pac-10 but it would take about 4 years before they would contend with the top. That is when the money and better recruits would head to Utah.
If they stay they would still be getting the same recruits since the MWC gets an auto berth and the Utes are nearly guaranteed a top 3 school in MWC every year.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 18, 2010 6:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah purely football
there would be no incentive for them to leave. They would be able to keep their natural rival in conference too.
Here we go again
First, if you are trying to justify an argument that one team or conference is better than the other, you should not have to come up with excuses like the letdown theory and home field advantage. Admittedly they do exist to a certain degree, but if you are really better, then you still win. Maybe you don’t win by 30 points, but you still win.
To single out some cited let downs, Oregon State did not have a let down against BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl. Mike Riley is a very good coach and he got his team over the loss to Oregon for the Rose Bowl. Watch the game again. Oregon State scored first, and started with strong defense evidenced by stuffing Harvey Unga for back to back 5 yard losses in the first quarter. If you still believe it was a let down go back to my original reasoning, if it was really a let down, you would not have lost by 24. (Correct me if I am wrong, but Oregon State lost to Oregon to end 2008 in a game that had a Rose Bowl berth on the line for the Beavers. Oregon State then won its bowl game even without Jaquizz Rodgers.)
Anyone fighting for the Pac-10 should stay away from the Utah vs. Cal bowl game this year. Utah spotted Cal a 14 point lead and still won by 10. Disgraceful for the Pac-10.
Second, don’t ever brush off a blowout win by saying the team that lost was a bad team. Case in point: UCLA vs. BYU, 2008. Why does a 59-0 win become meaningless beacuse it was the 8th best team in the conference? If it was so meaningless, someone from the Pac-10 would have done it in the last 79 years, or this year (UCLA was 8th again). Give credit where credit is due.
Third, don’t look at any one game in a vaccum. If you want to discredit Utah in 2008 because “#1 and undefeated Utah(home), sneaks past #3 Oregon State 31-29” then we need to discredit Pac-10 #1 USC in 2008. USC lost to #3 Oregon State that year. A win is always better than a loss. End result MWC #1 > Pac-10 #1.
Now, let me comment on specific arguing points.
As for “80% of the league could be bowl eligible” that only happens when your league schedules weak non-conference games. If you go 3-6 in conference you are a bad team, I don’t care if you were 3-0 in your non-conference games. Bowl eligibility doesn’t mean much any more.
As far as arguing who has a tougher non-conference schedule, you lost all creditibility when you said “ASU had a softy last year even though they scheduled UG when they were strong.” All any school can do is schedule name schools 5-10 years down the road and hope they are good when they play.
“I just can’t believe that anyone really believes that the MWC is better than any of the Big 6 at this point. They have zero depth. That is the bottom line, the MWC is top heavy.” —The truth is that all conferences are top heavy. Look at every conference, only 1/3 of it can really claim a shot at the conference championship each year. Who really cares about who would win when the bottom feeder teams play each other. Last time I checked, the AQs go to the champions.
“The WAC had 1 (which happened to stomp the life out of the MWC’s “best”)."—Very biased. It took a fake punt for Boise State to win that game. The game proved TCU and BSU were very evenly matched. Period. Not very wise, either, to bring this up. Look what the WAC #1 did to your #1.
“when your bowl games are against
“MWC #1 vs. Pac-10 #4
“MWC #2 vs. Pac-10 #6 or WAC#4
“MWC #3/4 vs. WAC #2 or C-USA #3
“MWC #5 vs. WAC #1
“Your toughest Bowl game is against the WAC #1…and even that’s debatable since the Pac-10 #4 is generally as good as the WAC champions.”—The numbers don’t tell the true story. The last two years, the MWC #1 has been in the BCS. In 2008 the MWC #3 played the Pac-10 #4. In 2009, the Las Vegas Bowl was unofficially MWC #2 vs Pac-10 #2. How many Pac-10 teams wanted to play the CUSA #3 (Houston) this year? How many of them would have intercepted Case Keenum six times? (If you really want to defend the Pac-10 on this one, don’t insult me by defending it without some strong evidence supporting the Pac-10 defenses. We all saw Oregon and Stanford put 50 spots on USC, so the Pac-10 already has a bad reputation for defense.)
As for the Pac-10 #4 being as good as the WAC #1, if that was the case, why has the Pac-10 #2 been left out of the BCS for the last 7 years but the WAC #1 has been in the BCS for 3 out of 4 years?
“#3 BYU beats winless #10 Washington thanks to the refs 28-27”—Get over it. I could give 5 good reasons why BYU was better and this game should not have been this close, but I don’t stoop that low. Don’t blame the refs because you have bad special teams. Whether it is for one point or three points, 20 yards or 35 yards, if it is for the win or to force overtime, you man up and make it, whatever the conditions.
“the big 3 even own basketball”—You’re sinking fast. MWC basketball big three: BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV. Only one of the football big three. Where are your great research skills now?
“I’d also like to add that the fact that we had 7 bowl teams is a feat in and of itself. If I’m not mistaken the MWC had 5.”—I don’t think this gives you a leg to stand on. You have one extra team in your conference. It took a loss by Army to Navy for UCLA to make a bowl. UNLV was 5-7, one game away from bowl eligibility. If the difference was more pronounced it would be a good argument, but as I said earlier, the bowls have lost their luster.
No one countered the direction of each Pac-10 program with the direction of each MWC program.
TCU, Utah, and BYU are all strong and will remain strong. If BYU appears to take a step back this year it is only because BYU plays a tough non-conference schedule. (+)
Air Force: no reason to believe they will decline ()
Wyoming: coaching changes last year are already providing dividends, will only get better ()
San Diego St.: same as Wyoming ()
Colorado State: hard to understand what is happening here (=)
UNLV: new coach, hard to imagine a different result (=)
New Mexico: was horrible last year, but on the rise with Locksley the recruiter ()
So, just like the Pac-10, “I see 2 teams that will for sure be bad. … The rest of the conference stays the same or gets better.”
My overall take on the agrument MWC vs Pac-10, top to bottom is 1) it is a silly argument in the first place, 2) I am a believer in Wyoming, SDSU, and to a lesser extent New Mexico under their new coaches. The middle of the MWC will be very formidable in the next couple of years. Don’t be surprised when one of the Big 3 loses to one of these three in the very near future, 3) a case could probably be made—but it wasn’t made in this article—to support that the Pac-10 has been better than the MWC, overall, the last few years, I think the difference is not very big and the MWC could surpass the Pac-10 shortly.
you are correct sir in saying navy had to beat army for ucla to even get in. i forgot to even mention that
did you see the celebration after that game. it’s as if they won the ncg over temple a team that has not won a bowl game for 40 years. reality check. ucla will never be on the upswing. they are the most underachieving disappointing team in fbs football. case closed. of course you could get 8 teams next yea. thier are 74 slots to fill b/c they are adding three more bowls . the mwc could get 7 teams in case closed again. i will give you one thing bmoney. you have done this in a nice way and i told you jeremy m. was fair and would not kick you off if you just stated your case. you have had your say and if more of the pac-ten fans were like you i can debate them but when you have usc pariah running the usc blog its hard to debate a chump like him. keep bringing it on and bring over some more reasonable pac-ten fans if their are any out there. ramble on.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 15, 2010 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
John B from UW Dawg Pound is freinds with the guys at Bruins Nation...
but the mods were total pricks to me…but John is one of the nicest dudes around. Could just be that I rubbed them the wrong way.
Of course it can...I just said that above
It’s easy to toss alot of this stuff out here. My only gripe with your rebuttals is that they’re all opinion based. There are no real substance stats that back up anything. So we’ll call it a wash on the opinion based points (except the blowout one, which I’ll get to).
There is in fact statistical evidence that “home field advantage” exists. It may not be much, but it’s there and it should be factored in. The fact that most of those games were upper echelon MWC teams vs. middle of the Pac-10 teams holds some weight. That 6-1 regular season heads up record was skewed, the MWC won the battle, but it wasn’t nearly as in favor as you would like everyone to believe.
There is also nothing in your post to tell me that the Pac-10 is top heavy. Every conference has it’s perennial powers, but the MWC has had the same 2/3 (since TCU joined late) all along. CSU and New Mexico have had their years, but can by no measure be considered regular conference contenders. Every team in the Pac-10 has gone to a BCS bowl game within the last 15 years, except Cal (not too far off with Tedford) and Arizona (it’s been 16 years to be fair though). Hell, even WSU and OSU have been to big bowls this past decade, and they’re comparable in terms of facilities and locale to more than a handful of MWC programs.
As for blowouts, they absolutely can be excused if one team is bad, and one team is good. When Florida stomps Jacksonville State, or USC dispatches SJSU by 50+ points, it can very easily be dismissed. I don’t run around claiming superiority over the WAC because USC beat the piss out of SJSU last year. Clearly UCLA was not good that year, and clearly BYU was.
I find it very funny that you start out by saying that blowout wins over anybody should be given extra credit, but a squeaker in the last seconds against a team that went 0-12 on the season was a fluke since BYU didn’t play up to ability. It was a bad call, and while clearly UW should have made the kick, the officials did effect the outcome of the game. It was closer than it should have been, so maybe the UW and UCLA games cancel each other out? I’m failing to see your point on either topic.
As for defense…both of the teams you mentioned that hung 50 on USC were in the top 10 in PPG last year, they did it against alot of teams. Utah, AF and TCU had better defenses than anyone in the Pac-10 (in PPG). But the top 9 Pac-10 teams were better than you’re 4th place team (a small victory for the top heavy argument). And does it even matter if nobody in the Pac-10 could have picked off Keenum 6 times? No. Anybody in the Pac-10 (sans WSU) could have given them a game. Now winning is a different story. But we’ll never know since they didn’t play. It’s a moot point.
Even though I mentioned that this post is not about basketball (the crack about basketball was a quote pulled from another blog), I have to interject. Apparently the 6 NCAA appearances Utah made in the last decade were a fluke. It was a joke, for effect, taken out of context in the transcription.
Alot of this debate is also skewed by the fact that the Pac-10 has 30 years of existence and history on the MWC. Which is why I brought this here…to have a civil debate. You seem really excited about this, I just came here to make my point and have a realistic debate.
The MWC has a great chance ahead of it to end the debate entirely and make the big-6 the big-7. I hope they do, I hate the BCS layout and think it unfairly penalizes mid-majors (and unfairly favors Notre Dame). I still contend that once the MWC gets to the point where they have 5 teams that even in down years can compete, that the run of 12-0 and 11-1 teams will end.
Parity and tradition (unless they expand, they won’t drop round robin skeds…even if it hurts the BCS chances) are what make the Pac-10 a top tier conference. They don’t work around the system like the SEC or Big-12. They may not always have the horses to compete with the top 5 programs in the country, but they always have at least 5-6 tough as nails teams that can knock off the big boys at any time.
P.S. Wolfman did say multiple times that the Pac-10 is in decline. It’s flat out not true. That’s why I laid out each team the way I did.
There is an easy way to settle this entire discussion
Hope the MWC #1 schedules Pac-10 #1, MWC #2 schedules Pac-10 #2, MWC #3 schedule Pac-10 #3.
The conference that comes out of these matchups with a better record is better, period.
Rebel Rock
Pipe dream but yeah...
this is kind of a stupid debate, which is why I wasn’t afraid to bring it here. Nobody will be “right” or win this debate. You can lay it all out there, but until something like that goes down, it’s all opinion.
it would be nice
If there was a Pac-10 vs. MWC challenge where the teams face each other by order of finish. I know the Pac-10 has one more team, but that would be a good thing. One less conference game to schedule and it would be against a mostly comparable team.
It would be fun, but would never happen.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 17, 2010 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Let me clarify
As I understand, the discussion is who is better Pac-10 or MWC. My comments should be taken in context of that argument. Therefore, …
Home field Advantage: As I stated, I agree that it exists, but in an agument about who is better, it is a bad position to take. Find another reason or let the results speak for themselves.
Top heavy conferences: If the Pac-10 is not top heavy because different teams are fill the top 3 or 4 spots each year, does that mean the Pac-10 is a better conference than the Big 10 (Ohio St., Penn St, and Michigan—historically), SEC (Florida, Alabama, Georgia, LSU), and Big 12 (Texas, Oklahoma)? My statement, which is factual not opinion, is that in any given year there are really only about 1/3 of any conference with a realistic chance of winning the conference crown. Any conference champion had 3 or 4 easy games in conference. I don’t understand how if everyteam goes through cycles of greatness and patheticness how that is different than a conference where each team sustains, generally, the same level of success over time. So you are saying that a if a team wins 13 games one year, 10 the next, and 7 the next, that team was better during that three years than a team that won 10 games each year, and therefore, the conference that the inconsistent team played in is better than the conference that had the consistent winner.
Excusing blowouts: On the 59-0 BYU win over UCLA I was not saying it was better than a 40-0 win. I did not say give it extra credit, only its just desserts. I agree that at margin of victory does not matter at a certain point. The original reference to that game was that UCLA was the 8th best Pac-10 team that year and BYU was the MWC number 3. Don’t insult the win until you make a fair comparison. The 3rd best Pac-10 team beat UCLA only 34-6 in 2008. Furthermore, the 59-0 win was UCLA’s worst loss in 79 years. No one in the Pac-10, or its predecessor conferences, was able to do what BYU did for 79 years. That is a fact, not opinion. This is a time to just take it on the chin and move on—don’t try to explain it away.
BYU vs. Washington: I did not call it a fluke. It is what it is and I accept it. However, to be factual, Jake Locker played against BYU. He did not play the last 8. You are a betting man, how much would you bet that Washington would have won some games if Locker stayed healthy? BYU lost to a team that was 0-1, and would not have been 0-12 if the same team that BYU played played the whole year. USC during their run actuallly lost to bad Pac-10 teams yearly, that is my major problem with people pointing to the BYU-UW game and using that as an argument that the MWC is inferior. BYU won, but USC loses a game like that and they still end the year in the top 5.
Houston vs. the Pac-10: I was responding to the attack on the MWC bowl tie ins. On paper playing the C-USA #3 might not look intimidating, which is opinion. I was giving the fact that this year that C-USA #3 was Houston, which was a 10 win team, with a lethal passing game. It would be nice to see the results of a poll nationwide, not just Pac-10, of how many coaches wanted to play Houston in their bowl game.
Basketball: Given the Pac-10 performance this year and Utah’s we should all leave basketball out of this.
Debating: I admit I do get excited about some of the arguing points, which is why I took the time to prepare such a long initial comment. Nonetheless, I feel I stayed within the relm of realistic debate. On second thought, I wasn’t really debating, I just wanted to add what I thought were glaring errors or important facts that were omitted.
I don’t think the MWC needs to do anything more to gain an AQ. Overall conference strength means nothing in the actual BCS games. It is champion against champion or runner up. All that should matter is how well you compete in those BCS games. The MWC champion has competed well. (Unlike Oklahoma, they should be banned from the BCS.)
Like you, I strongly prefer round robin play for conferences. I would love to see the NCAA outlaw mega conferences, or cap the limit at 12 but require teams to play round robin and eliminate the championship games.
I agree that they've done enough...they should have been an AQ last year after some strong showings.
They’ve performed well and I can’t really argue that the Pac-10’s top teams are cyclical in nature year by year. I do however, think that speaks to my point that the parity in the Pac-10 is what’s overlooked in this debate. The Pac-10 has 8 teams with the facilites and budgets to compete nationally any given year (we’ll exclude WSU and OSU, who short of some good runs — wich has more to do with Price and Riley — are kind of oddballs in the conference). The MWC has 3 who can, and the rest fall into the boat of WSU and OSU as needing a standout — and preferably long tenured — coach and some puzzle pieces to fall into place to make a long run. It’s tougher to run through 7 teams with AQ size and speed (except the big 3 in the MWC, it’s undeniably a mismatch in that department). It’s really an argument that can’t be won, as both angles have their merits (and I do fully understand the idea that the stability can go a long way) and drawbacks. I mostly brought this here because I like to argue about senseless things, it’s open ended and it’ll be fun to revisit come January.
About UW. As a complete homer, they had 5 win talent with Locker. The O-Line was miserable but he could have made some 3rd down plays with his legs that Fouch couldn’t. However in Willingham’s system, our out of shape Linemen couldn’t have saved Jake enough for us to win that many. Everyone knew as soon as Locker went down it was over, and that the only game we had a real shot at was WSU. The BYU game deflated this team, and I’ll never really know even if Locker stayed healthy if we would have reached that bowl plateu. I’m glad we didn’t since, it meant Ty would still be the HC.
/rant
Oh yeah…so I guess that last paragraph was supposed to have inferred that I would have given them 3 wins with Jake and maybe 1 or 2 (even with Fouch) had Ty not quit on his team. I’m really bad at explanations.
i said next year the sec and big 12 will not have a dominant team. all there good teams
will have two losses. that is why i put boise and osu i n the positions i did. if boise gets by v.t. and i think they will and osu gets by miami and iowa which i think they do barring injuries to t. pryor we could easily see boise stae vs osu in fiesta bowl. bsu would be getting the points and boise would win the game outright. who in the pac-ten next year is winning 10 games in regular season? utah and tcu will win over 10 games and maybe even byu, air force or wyoming. i say the hammer comes down the week on usc the week of april 6th, 2 days after the ncaa crowns the basketball champion. i would be more excited if you would bring more pac-ten fans on here. i can’t believe you actually think the pac-ten next year with big problems at the top two schools could possibly be better than the mtn west next year. the pac-ten will be better than the big east but the mwc will be better than them both and probably the acc. ramble on.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 15, 2010 12:53 PM PDT reply actions
It could be...
USC will likely get a 1 year bowl ban and lose a few schollies. Maybe a TV revenue ban, but that’s a stretch. It sounds like they couldn’t really prove a complete “lack of institutional control”. I think even with the bowl ban they could win 10 games. They just reload every year, and only cause Sanchez left ahead of schedule did they dwindle last year.
I’ll throw Barkley’s hat in the ring for 1st team all Pac-10. He’s a helluva QB and he’s only a Soph.
Oregon might have lost their BCS hopes with Masoli, but they let Blount back so who knows how long his “year off” will last.
If Prince comes around, UCLA could get to 10 wins.
If UW’s D holds up and stays healthy they could be looking at a 9 win season.
I also like Cal and Stanford to win at least 8 games.
OSU and that offense is always a threat. If (big if) they get past TCU, they could be poised to do big things.
It’s going to be a rough one in the overall W-L column for the Pac-10. I do think that we’ll mostly wipe up the tough OOC games (except TCU/OSU). It’s another year of parity that nobody will give us the respect we deserve.
Somebody in the next few years will step out of the crowd and take control. My guess is that it’s USC and UW (big time homerisim).
if ucla wins 10 games in the regular season(net year) i will leave this blog.
osu will be blasted just like clottey was vs pacman at the new cowboy stadium. they have no chance unless tcu fumbles 6 timens.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 15, 2010 1:11 PM PDT reply actions
I'd handicap the game
with TCU a 9.5 point favorite. I’ll be suprised if TCU has as good a year as they did last year. Hughes and half your defensive backfield is a lot to replace. Plus they lost their SLB and from what I can tell a RB as well. I’d give them 10 wins as the over under, but running the table will be tough.
UCLA has the athletes to put points on the board. They have the defense to keep points off. Finding the QB who can manage the athletes is going to be key. If they can find that, they’ll win at least 8 and could find their way to 10 real easy.
The defense will be fine.
TCU always has a defense before Hughes they had another All American player and the defense just reloaded. Yes they lost a lot and will take a step back but I would be surprised if they were NOT a top 25 defense. They have a legit shot at going undefeated again.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 15, 2010 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions
They do have a legit shot...
I just would put the odds at like 70/30 against it happening. 1 in 3 shot at undefeated season seems about right. Agree?
Anchor pass rushers and Corners are the toughest pieces of a defense to replace. Safties and OLB’s can be swaped around a bit, and the two big bodies to plug up the middle don’t need to be Suh and McCoy (TCU runs a 4-3 right? or were they 4-2-5?). Speed on the edge and speed in the secondary can’t be taught and it sounds like the CB’s they lost were pretty good.
If anybody can get it done it’s probably Patterson (or maybe Pellini, he’s really impressed me as well). He’s probably my favorite non NW coach.
i agree
TCU plays Oregon State, then Utah on the road.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 17, 2010 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions
i already gave you the score 31-17 too. in favor of tcu.
btw even with all of usc problems they will still beat ucla. so will the huskies and one more pac-ten team. i have not even looked at the ooc schedule but there is probably one game they should lose in those three games . remember i said regular season. they would have to go 10-2. no way jose.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 16, 2010 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
Not in the Pac-10 they won't
Too many teams that have more talent than UCLA, not to mention its not a sure thing that their QB will step up. Your overestimating a team that did nothing last season
Rebel Rock
UCLA showed flashes of brilliance last year...
and they’re still young (19 Seniors). Price is the biggest loss on an excellent defense and they should be poised to take another big step on D this year. On offense, they have talent. They don’t have leadership. That’s why I’m saying Prince will need to take control. If he does they should be able to get to 8. Finding two more wins shouldn’t be a huge task.
Texas is almost a surefire loss. Houston and K-State are very winable. If they can sneak through the conference and get hot they should be able to go somewhere between 6-3 and 8-1 in the Pac. I would say 8 wins is about right for calling the season a success. They’ll need some breaks to get to 10, but it could happen.
And I don’t even like UCLA.
Goor recruiter
and motivator but right not the best coach. But he has Norm Chow which makes up for what Rick lacks. Also, the QB situation is still iffy.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 17, 2010 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions
You described every Husky fan's nightmare betwen 2003-2008
Except UW didn’t have a visonary like Chow who can pick D’s apart. Only the most hardcore could see the writing on the wall when he left. Rick left us soft and we had sub par linemen on both sides. It’s taken 6 years and 3 coaches to recover.
Exactly
Looks like Sarkisian has the Huskies back on tract and the BYU vs. UW should be a good game. Neither team is expected to be great, but rather the two should be on more equal footing.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 18, 2010 6:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah,
the game is in Provo, which sucks for us. If it was in Seattle I would say UW would be a pretty safe pick, but it’s hard to rattle a young QB when there is only 2000 fans heckling him. I just can’t see Heaps sitting. He’s too high profile.
maybe??
I think Riley Nelson should start since he is in the system, but I get your point.
by Jeremy Mauss on Mar 18, 2010 7:17 PM PDT up reply actions
mike belotti steps down as athletic director.
i guess the stress of all the oregon duck players getting in trouble with the law and the firing of the bb head coach ernie kent got too stressfull for him. seems like everybody is abandoning ship in the pac-ten. i actually think the huskies might win it this season. who will be the next coach or ad to fall in the pac-ten?. or better yet which football school in the pac-ten will the next felon come from.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 19, 2010 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions
they had 21 of 22 starters coming back a few years ago and i think that was the season that
byu blocked the extra point for the win in the vegas bowl. i’ll say it again, ucla the most underachieving team in fbs or division 1-a history.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 17, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
No doubt...
Considering their smack in the middle of the most fertile recruting ground (per capita) in the country. They should have 10 national titles and be top 25 year in year out. I do think Slick Rick is one hell of a recruiter, and he can get some amazing skill players on that team. He neglects his big trench hogs, which will be his downfall if he sticks around long enough to see his development through.
By the way…I hate UCLA. I’m a UW fan. I just think they’re coming in underrated this year.
texas, hoston and k-state are the ooc schedule next year. they will lose 2 out of 3 in that matchup.
you got case keenum coming back with a chip on his shoulder ready to break more ncaa records and to redeem himself after 6 or 7 int’s vs airforce. houston did beat 3 aq bcs teams last year. texas will smash you. thanks for doing my homework ucla 7-5 bank on it.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 17, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Texas will be an ugly blowout...too big and too fast.
K-State and Houston are winnable. They’ve got some real players on their D, and could neutralize Keenum pretty well if he has an off day. UCLA controls the tempo and keeps Keenum in check (by in check I mean under 400 yards) they pull out a close one. If it’s a shootout, they’ll go down in flames.
MWC is not better than P10, but....
First, I am a Utah fan and love the MWC. I also think that Utah, BYU and TCU can compete with the best the Pac-10 has to offer. I also think that our worst team, UNM could give Wash State a run for their money.
However I agree that the MWC is not as good as the Pac-10. The Pac-10 has a bunch of good teams and were all pretty good across the board last season, while the MWC pretty much blew outside of the big three and AF (though I was proud of Wyoming).
But what is amazing is that this conversation is even occurring. If you take all the extra money and recruiting benefit the P10 has compared to the MWC, it shouldn’t even be an argument. Yet it is. So the better question would be, if the MWC had access to all the same resources would they be better over the past few years? Of course this is impossible to answer, but I would argue that absolutely the MWC would be better. The bottom of the conference would considerably stronger. What the MWC has been able to pull off with meager resources is nothing short of astounding.
Also, the MWC is better than the Big East..
I don’t know why you act like the MWC is so inferior to the Big East? Half of their teams, just four or five years ago were in the same boat as us, yet all of the sudden they’re legit? Please.
At the worst, the two conferences are equal. And I would take UNM over Syracuse any day of the week.
utah has never lost to a big east team. beaten louisville three times and pittsburgh.
they also play pitt the first game of the season on sept 2nd 2010. all coach whitt has to do to give even extra motivation is to put that smirking piece of zhit known as mark may who always seems to be smirking when mentioning mwc teams. mark may played his college football at pitt. coach whitt please run up the score on these fools like you did vs joe glenn and wyoming. that score was 50-7? btw pitt will start the season with a sophmore who has no ncaa evperience so his first game is on the road at about 4700 feet. suck wind young buck and watch your backside. lol.
I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 16, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions
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