Would UNLV want the 3 seed or 4 seed in the MWC Tourney?

This post has been promoted from the fan shot section.

This question doesn't seem like it would be something you would normally debate, but with the way the conference has turned out this season, it is debatable. First, let's look at why we're asking this question. Utah is either going to be the 5 seed or the 6 seed (looking like the 5 seed as of now). UNLV has already been swept by Utah and Utah is horrible matchup for the Rebels. Because Utah has such a high RPI, the selection committee will not look kindly on 3 losses to a Utah team that is struggling to stay above .500. Colorado St. is the other team Utah is battling with for the 5 spot. Colorado St. would be a great matchup for UNLV, they've already swept them winning big both times. The idea is UNLV doesn't want to be matched up with Utah in the first round

Let's look at scenarios here. Let's say UNLV beats Wyoming... then they are the 3 seed. As of right now, as long as UNM doesn't lose to the bottom tier of the league, they should get the 1 seed and BYU should get the 2 seed. That puts SDSU as the 4 seed. In the battle for the 5 seed, between Utah and CSU, as of right now it looks like Utah is going to win although it is still a toss-up at this point because CSU and Utah face off to finish the regular season. With CSU at 6-8 and Utah at 7-7, with both of them facing top opponents in their next game, the winner of that final game should get the 5 seed. TCU, Wyoming and Air Force will be at the bottom in that order (just a guess). Let's see what the first round matchups now are in the MWC Tourney:

UNM-Wyoming

BYU-TCU

UNLV-CSU

SDSU-Utah

Okay, so i picked Wyoming to beat Air Force and Utah to beat CSU in the final game of the regular season. All of these are easily winnable matchups for the top tier teams of the league, let's say they all move on (although it would be a pretty rough game for SDSU against Utah). Here are the second round matchups:

UNM-SDSU

BYU-UNLV

These matchups are a toss-up at best, with both of these matchups splitting the season series. Although it did seem like UNLV dominated BYU when they were at home, the MWC Tourney is held in Vegas. Basically from this point on it will be a brawl to try to either get into the NCAA Tourney, or strengthen your position in it. The team that really needs to win in the MWC Tourney is SDSU, if they don't make it to the conference finals, they are going to be out of the Tournament. Basically, it will be important to see how each team plays down the stretch. If BYU fades out and SDSU really picks it up, we could see them going to the NCAA Tourney. It will just come down to who can prove their the best...

Now, the reason i showed you this is because that was the scenario if UNLV got the 3 seed, no loss to Wyoming at home at the end of the season, no issues with matchups, here is the scenario for the 4 seed.

UNLV loses to Wyoming at home to finish out the regular season, that drops them right onto the bubble and makes the MWC Tourney a must-win situation. Here are what the matchups would be for the 4 seed:

UNM-Wyoming

BYU-TCU

SDSU-CSU

UNLV-Utah

This is where we get into danger zone for the Rebels, where they are on the bubble and facing a team with a very high RPI that has already swept them. Not only would this make it a tough first round matchup, but it would make it an even more difficult matchup in UNM the next round, and then BYU or SDSU in the championship (this is all assuming they win every game). 

I had recently been hearing some rumors about UNLV wanting the 4 seed in the MWC Tourney instead of the 3 seed, so hopefully i showed why UNLV would want the 3 seed, not the 4 seed.