What Happens If Utah Goes To Pac-10 And BYU Is Left Behind: Independence?
by Jeremy Mauss on Feb 14, 2010 3:32 PM PST
in Conference Expansion
26 comments
There are so many ways to go with the many Pac-10 expansion rumors, but what happens if the Pac-10 takes Utah and the fallout leaves BYU still in the Mountain West. The best case scenario for BYU in a sans Utah Mountain West would be for Commissioner Craig Thompson to invite Boise State to help ensure the MWC gains an auto bid to the BCS.
The way the time line should work is that first the Mountain West will invite Boise State this summer and have them begin conference play in 2011. The 2011 season would be the last year of the BCS evaluation period which means all of Boise State's rankings would be included with the rest of the Mountain West even though they were in the WAC. This to date would have four Mountain West teams in the top 25 final BCS standings, and most likely at least three in the final top 25 for the following two years since Boise would now be included. That should be enough for the Mountain West to be the seventh league with an auto bid to the BCS, even if Utah leaves.
Now, the Pac-10 will most likely extend an invite to Utah in the summer of 2011 and in this scenario Colorado goes as well -- unless the Pac-10 jumps the gun and hands out invitations this summer. Utah would still finish year four of four of the BCS evaluation period with the Mountain West and not effect the MWC's rankings during the current BCS evaluation period. So, the Mountain West would have a BCS bid for the next few years without Utah, but with the addition of Boise State -- who would essentially be a swap for Utah -- the Mountain West could still keep that BCS auto bid for the foreseeable future with BYU, Boise State, and TCU performing well on the field.
This scenario nothing much would change for BYU except that the Mountain West would be a BCS league and earn the rewards that come with that. The only downside is that with three good teams and not four the MWC will still need to perform well to keep their BCS status for more then just one cycle.
There are other scenarios that could hurt BYU by Utah going to the Pac-10 would be recruiting, because some of the athletes on the fence about going to BYU or Utah may choose Utah over BYU for the chance to play better competition. Especially since BYU draws from such a small pool of LDS athletes with a small additional athletes that like the environment at BYU. That pool could be reduced, however if the MWC keeps their BCS auto status then it could all be the same as before with BYU getting the majority of the LDS athletes.
The rivalry between Utah and BYU might be in trouble in when they play. A lot of non-conference rivalries happen in the beginning of the season. Florida and Florida State play late in the year and that would be the proper place for this game to take place. The game would lose a little meaning since it would not be deciding anything within their respected conference.
One far fetched idea that has been floated if the Mountain West gets decimated by Utah and TCU leaving and Boise State stays in the WAC is that BYU would go independent. One radio host who in my opinion lacks college football knowledge was saying that if BYU could get a special deal to the BCS like Notre Dame then they would go independent in a second. That is never going to happen for BYU. Oh, and he mentioned that BYU and Notre Dame would play ever year? Why? The last series was a two for one deal between the Domers and the Cougars.
Now, BYU would have enough pull to broker a deal with various networks. ESPN would be one that would pick up some BYU home games as well would Fox Sports Utah (not national) for some games, and CBS College Sports would want to pick up something since they currently have a relationships.
Being on ESPN would mean some better exposure and most likely they would still be on TV every week since in the first few years of being an independent they would play some MWC schools and be on either Versus, The Mtn, or CBS College. The money would be a key which BYU might not be there with their own type of television deal, and figuring out a bowl tie in would be tough. Going back to that genius radio host mentioned that BYU could easily slide into the Holiday Bowl again. Not a terrible idea but he should realize that they just signed a brand new deal. The first year or two could be tough to get into a bowl tie in at all.
Independence would be a mess even if the Mountain West is a weaker league, but in that case BYU could do what Boise State currently does in the WAC; rack up wins and then they finally could get into a BCS bowl game.
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It is in the Pac-10’s interest to keep The MWC from gaining an auto-bid. I would not be surprised to see this expansion stuff move fast in order for the Pac-10 to take Utah before Utah’s record solidifies for the MWC evaluation.
Barring that, something in my gut just tells me that the powers that be will make it so that there is no new auto-bid or the Big East will be bailed out somehow and stay in the top 6 conferences and a new rule will come out saying ONLY 6 auto-bid conferences or something.
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by Hockey Beard in SLC on Feb 14, 2010 4:50 PM PST reply actions
you are correct it's in the best interest of the pac-ten to keep the mwc from gaining auto-bid
the futures for next years bcs championship winner just came out. bama was 4/1, osu 6/1 boise state was 10/1 and tcu was 15/1. here is the interesting note. it says at the bottom of the odds that all wagers are action regardless of division or conference changes. it will happen sooner than later if you read between the lines.
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by wolfmanshowlforever on Feb 14, 2010 5:28 PM PST reply actions
If the MWC gets raided and the Big 12 doesn't take BYU
their best bet is to bring in the best teams possible to fill out the MWC. Independence is not the wave of the future. Notre Dame is going to look very silly when their NBC deal runs out and they haven’t joined the Big Integer…
agreed
They might try to bring some old WAC schools together. Or if the MWC is below seven teams then the WAC would have the power and bring in BYU, Air Force, and other to fill out the WAC.
by Jeremy Mauss on Feb 15, 2010 5:20 AM PST up reply actions
Seems like the MWC has a stronger brand name right now
at least here on the east coast. I would think the MWC would try to entice the 4 or 5 best teams they can get in that scenario with the promise of a lot more TV time… unless you’re Boise State or Hawaii you don’t even have that locally most of the time. Without Utah and BYU or TCU it’s certainly not quite as enticing for AQ status, but there’s no way the WAC is going to be able to set up their own network any time soon.
by commodore_dude on Feb 15, 2010 8:24 AM PST up reply actions
TV
If the MWC has 7 teams if BYU, Utah, and TCU go they do not have the power to bring in other schools. The Mtn tv network could easily make a deal for WAC tv, it would be way less money but still might be worth it.
by Jeremy Mauss on Feb 15, 2010 8:54 AM PST up reply actions
BYU independent ????
so, I’ve been all over this stuff, and have read a lot. (really I’m obsessively into this for some reason)
Big 10: 1) Wants a team that will bring more money to the pot than they take out as an extra pie cut. 3 teams fit this requirement: UT, Rutgers, Notre Dame. 2) They want an AAU (American Assoc. of Uni) school. 2 teams fit this UT, Rutgers. BUT, UT won’t get approval through the Texas Legislature, where any move will be blocked by Alumns of Tech, Baylor and A&M….that leaves Rutgers, which won’t affect the Big12 or the MWC.
12-Pac, will have to take 2 teams. Utah, and CU makes the most sense, and I think those 2 are taken. So the Big 12 now is down one.
The Big 12’s first choice to replace CU would be Arkansas. I’m not sure if that flies for a few reasons, but the Big 12’s #2 choice would be BYU. They would bring part of the Utah, Salt Lake City Market, and are viewed by many to be a poor man’s Notre Dame in that they have ties to those of the Morman faith, world wide. (and no TCU is NOT the Big 12’s #3 choice. They are too small, and the Big 12 does not need them to have the D/FW TV market…in fact I would say New Mexico and even Col. State would be ahead of TCU,)
"You have been banned from the Purple Row, for Inappropriate conduct, profanity, (&) telling site authors their articles are crap."
I am obsessive as well
I have about three or four more articles i have in the works for this week, at least. Agree on TCU being an option unless for some reason Texas leaves. Arkansas I get since they are a former SWC school, but if the Big XII wants to keep north/south regions then BYU would be their top choice. Plus, like you said BYU brings some decent tv numbers with the SLC/Utah market and members affiliated with the LDS church. Those factors are much more then Arkansas could bring in and it is all about money.
by Jeremy Mauss on Feb 15, 2010 8:56 AM PST up reply actions
Arkansas
is a growing state region, and UofA owns the entire state. The fans really feel that joining the SEC was a mistake in ways, as they haven’t been championship level competitive in really any sport. UofA, would like to have the rivalry back with UT. They would lose money from the SEC which makes/pays more than the Big 12 does, but I think they hope to make that back with more ticket sales, and donations (which still is the number one source of revenue for any University athletic department) . But I understand the contract they signed when they joined the SEC was pretty air-tight locked down.
After BYU, I don’t know who the Big 12 would look at as #3 choice. It becomes wider open. I’d guess it would be New Mexico, but that’s just a educated guess.
As for the North/South split, I think that’s a 2ndary concern. There has been talk of mixing up the divisions more, to break up the South domination of football.
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From the SEC standpoint
I have to wonder who we could bring in to replace Arkansas that adds a better TV market as well. The top candidates are all in markets that the SEC owns anyway (Atlanta, northern Florida, South Carolina). I can’t see the Big 12 bringing in New Mexico, although CSU/BYU would be an interesting combination to come in to replace Colorado/Mizzou…
by commodore_dude on Feb 15, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
Who the SEC would get could be interesting
I had heard some where speculated that if the SEC did lose a team, they would look at West Virginia first, but I also read Southern Florida in Tampa would be on an SEC wish list. Tampa really isn’t UF territory, and would help TV in state of Florida where the SEC would like more presence especially with FSU and Miami ACC teams. After those 2 it gets iffier, everyone wants into the Texas TV markets and University of Houston would do that (really would prefer A&M, but if UT isn’t going anywhere, nether is A&M), or Cincinnati who is just across the river from Kentucky, and Cincinnati/Dayton is now considered one metro area. Louisville could be an option as well, but not sure that really helps much in TV.
Really nothing more than names, but I’ve heard USF more than once as well as West Virginia
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USF seems like it would be a good candidate for the SEC
Increases TV audience in Florida, USF gets out of the Big East, and goes to the SEC, where they would sell more tickets and have more popularity. The question is what would the Big East do if the SEC took USF or West Virginia (getting pretty far down the ripple effect here). All this expansion talk has really enlightened me to the bad Big 12 tv contract and all the money works for the BCS Conferences.
Rebel Rock
I cannot fathom...
…the SEC going after West Virginia. Most people already complain that Arkansas is too geographically removed from the rest of the conference. West Virginia would be an even more extreme case of that.
I don’t see them going after USF either. I briefly attended USF for graduate school and the sports culture just isn’t there. It’s in the Florida market, but I have a hard time seeing the SEC going after a team that’s barely been playing D1 football for a decade.
I would imagine their wish list would include Georgia Tech, Florida State or Clemson. Georgia Tech used to be in the SEC and there’s plenty of dormant rivalries waiting to be rekindled. Don’t know if any of those three would go for it or if they think they’d win more in the ACC. They’d certainly line their pockets more in the SEC.
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Those are the only 3 real candidates
I hear VA Tech come up, but that’s not really geographically sensible. West Virginia is just as silly plus it’s much less exciting overall. We don’t really have any schools that serve as fallback locations for athletes that have too long or a rap sheet or too crappy grades to go anywhere else (I guess you could try to argue that everyone else is that for Vandy, but that wouldn’t make much sense), so South Florida is out.
by commodore_dude on Feb 16, 2010 7:53 AM PST up reply actions
Ga Tech
Is too far removed from the SEC once they were in there before.
by Jeremy Mauss on Feb 16, 2010 6:48 PM PST up reply actions
The SEC is already a national brand
They have the best TV deal in college football and there’s nobody that really geographically makes sense in a market they “need” to conquer.
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"need" to conquer? No....would like to? Oh ya
one of the issues in their last TV negotiations was the State of Florida, and how with all those TV’s, the SEC really didn’t “own” that market. Tha’s why I think USF is a candidate. Yeah, it’s still in many ways a commuter school, but it is growing rapidly especially as college sports entertainment the area. (I worked a job down there Ft. Myers about 3 years ago, and the talk at work on Friday was about going to the USF game. Even non-graduates or grad of other Universities were fired up).
Fl. State would be better sure, but I understand they had some contract stipulations in place when the ACC expanded, to insure FSU was a conference member. If that’s either not the case, or it’s something that can be negotiated/bought out, they would be the first choice.
Another would be the Houston market, and a presence in the state of Texas. But, I don’t see any deals that get UT or A&M out of the Big 12 through the legislature, which is why Houston would be an option, though they are like USF in many regards.
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I'd pick Houston over USF
Just because it adds a totally new media and recruiting market. Also, then we wouldn’t have to kick someone over to the West division. But I’d rather have any of the southeastern ACC schools first.
by commodore_dude on Feb 16, 2010 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
But most ACC schools don't all to the SEC tv market
besides, FSU and Miami. Clemson? Already S. Carolina as far as TV’s go. Ga. Tech/Atlanta, all ready Georgia. North Carolina? Well, that would be great but unless the SEC takes Duke a private university, UNC or NCS neither would get approval for one with out the other through the legislature. Same with Virginia, and Va. Tech.
I’d throw in a few others that don’t add much TV: S. Miss. Tulane, La. Tech, Memphis, Louisville, UA-B, Ark. St.
Now your point about the SEC not needing TV’s, maybe right. The SEC maybe the only one of the conferences, that might look at being competitive on the football field first before TV markets. All the rest are jockeying for new TV contracts, so TV markets are #1 issue.
"You have been banned from the Purple Row, for Inappropriate conduct, profanity, (&) telling site authors their articles are crap."
While I think they would like to add to the TV market...
…I don’t think it would be consideration #1by any stretch of the imagination. I think they’re going to go after as quality a program as possible first and worry about the TV markets later. Now, if it came down to taking Houston or Southern Miss, then yeah, I think they’d go Houston for the TV market, but I don’t think they’d got USF over Georgia Tech or Clemson or FSU because of TV market.
I’d throw in a few others that don’t add much TV: S. Miss. Tulane, La. Tech, Memphis, Louisville, UA-B, Ark. St.
Memphis could add value in basketball, Louisville could add to basketball and football (if they can get football back on track after the Kragthorpe debacle, which I think Strong can do.) I don’t think anyone else on that list has much to give outside of Tulane being a former SEC school. Heck, UAB is my second favorite team and there’s pretty much nothing (except maybe basketball) that they could add. The decision will be based 98% off of football, which would rule out most everyone on that list.
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Vanderbilt could move to the West
Y’all are already further West than Auburn.
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Arkansas
While I agree Arkansas and the SEC aren’t the best fit for each other, I’m not sure I agree with this statement:
The fans really feel that joining the SEC was a mistake in ways, as they haven’t been championship level competitive in really any sport.
Arkansas joined the SEC in 1992.
- They won the national championship in basketball in 1994 and made the Final Four again in 1995.
- They’ve won two SEC conference titles in basketball and won the SEC basketball tournament once.
- They’ve won a combined 26 national championships since 1992 in men’s indoor track & field, men’s outdoor track & field and men’s cross country.
- They’ve played in the SEC championship game three times in football (four SEC teams still haven’t made a single appearance.)
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I forgot baseball & women's sports
They’ve won the SEC twice, been to the College World Series twice and made the NCAA tournament 12 times.
Women’s sports have a combined 17 SEC titles.
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Baseball
is probably the sport most helped by Ark, joining the SEC. But, you really can’t say Football or Basketball has improved since they joined, and those are the revenue generating sports.
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