MWC's NCAA Tournament Teams

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Best case scenario for the conference is that SDSU wins the tourney and the other 3 get at-large bids, because that would be a conference record for NCAA Tourney bids. It isn't the best case scenario for UNLV.

Let's think about this, let's say UNLV wins out. Then they have to beat Utah, Utah is probably going to be the 6 seed and UNLV will be the 3 seed if they win out, UNLV already lost to Utah at home this season and Utah has always been a horrible matchup for UNLV. If they beat Utah, then they probably are going to have to face New Mexico, New Mexico is probably going to be 2nd seed and they will face the 7 seed probably Wyoming. New Mexico already beat them at home. And they are another bad matchup for UNLV. Let's say they beat New Mexico. Now they're probably going up against BYU or SDSU, BYU would be a better matchup for UNLV, but SDSU is a horrible matchup for BYU. SDSU wins. Once again another bad matchup for UNLV. SDSU is a great rebounding team, and that is UNLV's biggest weakness.

It's very improbable that we get 4 bids to the tourney. SDSU would have to beat BYU/New Mexico to get to the finals, and chances are that UNLV will not be going to the conference finals because of all the bad matchups they will probably face. So, that means that the team they didn't face in the second round matchup they will have to face in the conference final. The chances that they are going to beat UNM and BYU without their home crowd is OK at best.

So, there are many scenarios available here.

1. UNLV fades out at the end of the season like they did last year, lose bad in the first round to a bad matchup team like last year, and don't get a NCAA Tourney bid.

2. UNLV wins out, surprises everyone and wins the MWC Tourney, probably getting a 6 or 7 seed in the tourney.

3. UNLV wins out and loses in the MWC Tourney, but makes it to the second round or conference final, in that case they probably get a 9 or 10 seed in the tourney.

4. UNLV wins out, but gets blown out in the first round, in which they are a bubble team and will have to get lucky to get into the tourney.

5. SDSU fades out at the end of the season, loses big in the first round and doesn't get into the tourney.

6. SDSU wins out, but gets blown out in the first round, in which they don't make the NCAA Tourney.

7. SDSU wins out, surprises everyone and wins the MWC Tourney, in that scenario they are probably a 8 or 9 seed.

8. SDSU wins out, loses in the conference tourney, but makes it to the second round or the conference finals, in which they are out of the tourney.

As you can see, there are scenario combinations that are best for the league, scenario combinations that are worst for the league, there are scenarios that are best for SDSU, and there are scenarios that are best for UNLV. And these aren't even including the scenarios for New Mexico an BYU.

Best case scenario combination for the league is 3 and 7.

Worst case scenario combination for the league is 1 and 5.

Best case scenario for San Diego State is 7.

Best case scenario for UNLV is 2.

Worst case scenario for San Diego State is 5.

Worst Case scenario for UNLV is 1.

To sum things up, the chances that we get 4 bids is improbable, San Diego State has basically 1 scenario to make the tourney. UNLV has 3 scenarios to make the tourney. My predictions are that scenarios 3 and 8 happen.