The Mountain West Conference: Why the Pac-10 may expand this year
by Michael Rueckert on Feb 11, 2010 7:54 PM PST
in Football
15 comments
By now everyone has heard that the Pac-10 looking to expand their conference to get that championship game and a more lucrative TV contract. But when are they going to do it?
"It is really over the next six to 12 months that we'll start having serious analysis and serious evaluations," Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott said. It sounds like a decision that will be made very soon.
Most are expecting the Pac-10 to expand in 2011 so teams would play in the Pac-10 during the 2012 season. They are due for a new TV contract to be made starting with the 2012 season. It makes perfect sense for them to expand then.
They may not wait though. The Pac-10 possibly will expand this offseason. Why? To crush the MWC's BCS hopes and preserve their power out west.
As most MWC fans know, the BCS is currently evaluating conferences to determine AQ status. The evaluation began in 2008 and ends with the 2011 season. The MWC is looking very strong thus far and will likely gain AQ status starting with the 2012 season.
The Pac-10 does NOT want the MWC to become an automatic qualifier conference. No doubt. They currently rule the west and do not want to share the power; especially considering their current financial struggles.
If the Pac-10 invites Utah this summer, they would be able to use Utah's stats in their BCS evaluation. Not the MWC. This blow would likely diminish any hope of gaining AQ status for the MWC. If they also bring in BYU, you can forget about AQ for the MWC. The Pac-10's superiority out west would be safe until the next evaluation is done.
If they wait until next year to expand it will be too late. Utah would have played in all four years of the BCS Evaluation in the Mountain West. Utah would very likely leave the MWC as it becomes an AQ conference.
If the Pac-10 wants to expand, why wait? Bring in Utah and whoever else (Colorado) now and they will preserve their Western Power. If they expand this year instead of next year, they can "kill two birds with one stone."
Larry Scott didn't hire expansion/TV expert Kevin Weiberg in early February for nothing. Under MWC rules, a team would have to resign by September 1, 2010 to play in another conference during the 2011 season.
The Pac-10 has seven months to make their decision if they want to hurt the MWC's BCS chances. That should be plenty of time.
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nice points
Stop the MWC chances for any chance of a BCS bid, because if the Pac-10 waits and invites next summer Utah or BYU their stats would stay in the MWC, That would allow the MWC to keep their auto bid without BYU or Utah in the league. Makes sense because if there are 7 auto bid leagues it takes away an at large spot and the Pac-10 has been struggling to get 2 teams in and by adding the MWC it would be even tougher.
At large spot is another point
The TV deal is where it gets tricky
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by Michael Rueckert on Feb 11, 2010 8:25 PM PST up reply actions
This is great stuff
I’ve been all over the internet reading stuff on these realignment talks, and this is a good fresh take.
Timing of all this will be a key, and ya’ll are all over that aspect.
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by Redhawk on Feb 11, 2010 9:57 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Thank you
Everything with expansion is getting quite redundant. Seems like we have a different twist to it over here.
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by Michael Rueckert on Feb 11, 2010 10:04 PM PST up reply actions
It definitely makes sense for the Pac-10 to expand now
But I hope the MWC still finds a few good teams out there to an AQ as well… There is no way BYU is going to get picked up unless it’s to replace Colorado in the Big 12, so y’all still need to work for 12 teams IMO – 4 from the WAC, 1 from CUSA (surely one of the Texas teams or Tulsa would bite).
MWC Expansion
You are right, BYU has a MUCH better chance of getting added to the BIG-XII than to the PAC-10, though neither are extremely likely. So, we assume the MWC gets raided for Utah and BYU and TCU remain. The conference is back to eight and should look for 4 to make it a 12 team league with a conference championship.
1. Tulsa/Houston – These teams have made a decent name for themselves as strong teams in non-AQ conferences (I like Houston because it’s where I am from, but either would work).
2. Boise State – They would make as good a case for the MWC as Utah did in the past four years, but it’s too bad they join the basketball side of things.
3. Nevada – They would play in the same conference as rival UNLV and, depending on who end’s up with them divisionally, could be a team to watch out for.
4. Fresno State – I love the idea of expanding into California to expand recruiting possibilities for the conference.
If the MWC answers with this level of addition, even if the PAC-10 adds Utah this will be a conference that makes a strong case for AQ status.
On the other hand, if Utah goes to the PAC-10, TCU replaces Missouri (to BIG-10) in the BIG-XII, and BYU replaces Colorado (to PAC-10) in the BIG-XII then these teams would be better left where they are because all of the sudden the WAC has a better case than this shadow of the MWC.
so true
I think the explosion of the MWC would happen if the big 3 leave. Then there would be scrambling with 7 teams looking to join a league and unless the WAC wants to make another try at a 16 team league just scoop up the MWC left overs, or Karl Benson could be a prick and maybe take a team or two since the remaining schools were the ones who left in the night to form the MWC. That could mean either independence or possibly worse in joining the Sun Belt.
by Jeremy Mauss on Apr 15, 2010 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
While I agree the the effect of the Pac 10 expanding
And presumably asking Utah to join, would have a deleterious affect on the MWC. I really think it has a lot more to do with revenue, and TV markets than trying keep the MWC from AQ status. The Pac 10 is going to do it or not based on reasons that have to do with their own ability to compete with the other “major” conferences. I have been a life long Pac 10 fan and have always thought the MWC doesn’t get the respect it deserves, and the last few years the MWC has won some big games and shown that they deserve to be part of the national discussion. I have a lot of reservations about whether expansion should proceed, but the main reasons have absolutely nothing to do with the Mountain West Conference, and everything to do with the Pac 10 and their ability to get a good TV deal, and to compete in the BCS against other leagues that don’t schedule MWC teams, or ANY OOC games with quality opponents.
So, yes if the Pac 10 does invite Utah, then it really screws the MWC, I get it, but this whole Idea that they are doing it to keep the MWC down is kind of silly. Why would the Pac 10 expose themselves to risk, shaking up the Pac 10, splitting future revenue between two more partners etc. for reasons that have more to do with screwing the little guy than their own purely selfish reasons of finding ways to increase revenue for their member institutions? Seriously. Think about it the truth is this has everything to do with the Pac 10 and very little to do with the MWC.
IF and that is a BIG if it happens what is the MWC going to do? I’d think you go get Boise State and maybe Fresno St. both schools could help raise the profile of the MWC, but don’t hate on the PAC because they are doing what they need to do to stay competitive.
Not saying it's about keeping the MWC down. I agree that it is all about money
But they can kill two birds with one stone if they expand now instead of next year.
Not hating the Pac-10 either. I go to the University of Utah and would LOVE to join your conference.
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by Michael Rueckert on Feb 12, 2010 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
However, I personally don’t think it is beneficial to “kill” the MWC, although that does seem like a possibility with all the “spiral of consequences” scenarios out there, most of which involve the MWC getting raided for 1-3 of there best football schools (UU, TCU, and BYU). The Pac 10 suffers from many issues, which have mainly to do with geography, namely time zone differences, sparse large television markets, and distance to other “major conference” opponents. Up until recently Pac 10 schools got little to no respect for playing and winning games against quality foes from the MWC or WAC, and all the derision for losing to them. I personally think it is good to have a strong MWC that the PAC 10 schools can compete against “locally” and get respect for scheduling quality games, plus when the MWC gets wins it helps to raise their profile. When it comes down to it though it will all hinge on Colorado and their number 18 TV market, and maybe Big tweleven expansion, as to whether anything happens at all. Why doesn’t the MWC go after BSU, and FSU? That would be a bada$$ football league. Maybe lead to better bowl arrangements, and recruiting possibilities.
I know it’s kind of a ramble but there’s a lot to think about.
It's good to have a strong MWC when the Pac-10 plays the MWC but,
A lot of MWC schools have been beating Pac-10 schools for recruits. The gap between the two conference continues to shrink which can’t be good for the Pac-10. Business wise with their revenue problems a BCS AQ MWC would hurt them, except when they play non-conference and in bowl games.
The MWC will likely invite BSU this summer before July 1. It’s widely believed on here that it is a done deal. With the current threat of losing Utah, BYU & TCU it’s becoming very important that they bring in Boise State now.
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by Michael Rueckert on Feb 12, 2010 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
I know you guys keep saying that the MWC will invite BSU this summer.
But what evidence is there besides your own belief that it is a good idea? I’ve seen other people say they don’t think it’s going to happen, also based on little evidence. I’m not going to believe anything until it happens or there are legitimate whispers.
It is largely based on speculation
Evidences
- MWC comissioner said the conference will look into expansion last year
- That letter that Boise State received inviting them into the MWC
- Expansion rumors that were apparently coming from Washington last fall
That really is about it. The advantages and timing of it seem to be obvious though. We’ll find out soon I guess.
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by Michael Rueckert on Feb 12, 2010 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
Also
during 2009 football media days Craig Thompson mentioned Boise State by name as a possibility to join the MWC.
by Jeremy Mauss on Feb 12, 2010 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
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