... 4) It's becoming increasingly clear that the model thinks there is exactly three truly elite football teams this season: TCU, Oregon, Boise. These have been the three most dominant teams in the country... and it's not even close. And each one has, to date, played a pretty reasonable schedule (though Boise's has certainly been the weakest of the three, at least if you only count 1-A games as the model does). That said, Boise continues to fall further behind TCU and Oregon week by week. They're still close enough to Oregon to say they're within a pretty reasonable error range, but that's not the case with TCU. The Frogs have been more dominant against a tougher schedule than the Broncos, and the model's numbers are reflecting this. Boise will have one big chance to move the dial in their favor when they take a big road trip to Nevada; against a Utah team that the model rates close to Nevada, TCU won 47-7. If Boise wants to catch up, they may need to come up with an even more impressive score, which is going to be tough to do.