Looking 'objectively' at the expansion candidates
by TowerPower on Nov 23, 2010 8:28 PM PST
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We’ve discussed Houston and UTEP at length, but mostly as advocates for one or the other. In this post I will attempt to look at each of the four potential candidates as objectively as I can. So I sat down and compiled the stats along with some simple pros and cons for each team for side by side comparisons of all four perspective teams. For this discussion I will focus on the comparable aspects of each university with a final miscellaneous section where the intangibles can be compared.
1. History/Tradition
- Houston Cougars-
- SWC history with TCU 1967-1996
- CUSA history with TCU 2001-2005
- Utah State Aggies-
- Big West sporadic history with Fresno St, UNLV, Hawaii, Nevada, and Boise St 1978-2001
- WAC history with new MWC additions since 2005
- Minor regional history with schools in their neighboring states.
- UTEP Miners-
- Border Conference history with New Mexico 1935-1951
- Skyline Conference history with Utah, BYU, Wyoming, Colorado St, New Mexico 1952-1962
- WAC history with Utah, BYU, Wyoming, Colorado St, New Mexico 1967-1999
- Nearly 20 years WAC history with San Diego St, Hawaii, and Air Force from late 70's-2000
- Minor WAC history with Fresno St, Boise St, Nevada, UNLV, and TCU
- SMU Mustangs-
- Major Rivalry with TCU ‘Battle for the Iron Skillet' since 1915
- SWC/WAC history with TCU 1923-2000
- WAC history with many of the MWC from 1996-1999
2. Attendance and school size (hat tip to VA Libertarian and Andy Mac)
School 09 Enrollment Stadium Size 09 Football 5 Year Avg 09 Basketball 5 Year Avg Houston 38,850 32,000 25,242 20,935 3,814 4,326 Utah St 25,065 25,500 15,971 13,219 9,792 8,804 UTEP 21,011 51,500 29,010 38,843 8,675 9,125 SMU 10,693 32,000 21,348 18,078 2,835 2,806
School City, State Population Media Market Size Houston Houston, TX 2.26 million #10 Houston Utah St Logan, UT 50,000 Closest is #31 SLC UTEP El Paso, TX 620,000 #98 El Paso SMU Dallas, TX 1.3 million #5 DFW (w/TCU)
4. Participation in Mountain West Conference Sponsored Sports which include:
Men's Football, Basketball, Baseball, Track/Cross Country, Swim/Dive, Golf and Tennis
Women's Volleyball, Basketball, Softball, Track/Cross Country, Swim/Dive, Golf, Tennis and Soccer
Houston- Sponsors all but M Swim/Dive, M Tennis, W Golf; and no additional sports
Utah State- Sponsors all but Baseball, M&W Swim/Dive, and W Golf; they also sponsor W Gymnastic
UTEP- Sponsors all but Baseball, M&W Swim/Dive, M Golf, and M Tennis; they also sponsor W Rifle
SMU- Sponsors all but Baseball, and Softball; they also sponsor M Soccer, W Rowing and W Equestrian
5. Academic Ranking
School US News and World Report World/US Rankings Forbes Washington Monthly Houston Tier 2 201-300/90-111 549 237 Utah St 170 402-501/139-152 191 131 UTEP Tier 2 NR NR 149 SMU 56 NR (Private) 109 227
6. Historical Excellence in Athletics
Houston- 16 National Championships and 19 M Basketball Tourney Bids
Utah State- 3 National Championships and 19 M Basketball Tourney Bids
UTEP- 21 National Championships (1 in Men's Basketball) and 17 M Basketball Tourney Bids
SMU-78 National Championship (1 in Football) and 10 M Basketball Tourney Bids
7. Geography/Travel
View MWC Expansion Candidates in a larger map
Blue-MW Members; Green-FB only Member; Red-Former Members; Yellow-Potential Members
School In Footprint? Major Airport? Closest MWC Drive? Time Zone Mountains? Houston No Yes TCU-4hr Central No Utah St Yes No, SLC 1 ½hrs away Boise St-4½hrs Mountain Yes UTEP Yes Yes New Mexico 3½hrs Mountain Yes SMU Yes Yes TCU->1hr Central No
8. Miscellaneous Section (These are arguments or points that I've heard not my opinion)
Houston-
- Pros-
- Recent Football Success- the main point most people point to UH, they believe their recent top 25 rankings and OOC Big Six Victories would help the MWC with its AQ bid.
- Large Non-MWC Media Market- pretty much self explanatory, if the MWC get to rework its TV deal then adding in a top ten media market could only improve its value.
- Recruit Rich area- Houston has many top colligate recruits that the MWC team could gain more exposure and access to.
- Help keep TCU in the MWC by giving it a travel partner, TCU is alone in Texas and adding UH may convince them to stay in the MWC instead of jumping over to the Big East.
- Potential-the only major university in the area is Rice, so with the large population of Houston and the state of Texas one could see UH becoming a powerhouse academically and athletically.
Commuter school-while UH has a large student population, they have a low percentage of attendance at games, many student commute to the school from the suburbs and do not attend athletic events. UH is in the middle of the road academically and falls behind as a research university. Low Local Support-With professional sports like the Texans, Astros, Rockets, Dynamos in town UH has to compete for local relevancy. They also compete with not only Rice but also nearby colligate powerhouses like Texas and Texas A&M. Many believe these are the main reasons for the low local support. WAC 3.0- This expansion would resemble the old 16 team WAC, which may lose some of the nations respect for the MWC and may hurt their bid for the AQ. This also increases travel cost for the non-revenue sports. It will make CUSA mad-while Conference USA hasn't had the same success that the MWC has, it has made some progress with East Carolina, Central Florida, and Houston. By taking one of it best athletic programs and part of its largest media market away the MWC may ruin all chances of staging a joint conference championship game for a BCS bid with CUSA.
Utah State-
- Pros-
- Solidifies the MWC's footprint- Makes the MWC more identifiable to the casual fan and allows the MWC to retain part of the SLC market in Utah where people have grown accustom to its teams
- Brings in good academics, research dollars and a championship caliber basketball team into the conference.
- Will kill help to officially kill the WAC-while it is barely hanging on (and may already be dead) this would guarantee the WAC ‘s demise, LA Tech may not be selected to replace Houston, SMU, or UTEP, also this may allow for enough votes to officially disband the conference and wave the exit fees for Nevada and Fresno St.
- Keeps CUSA happy-(see Con notes for UH) makes it more likely to stage the bi-CCG.
No major airport, and no close travel partners Not relevant in football (yet), which hurts the MWC's AQ chances. Utah St would be at the bottom of the MWC for years to come and would detract from the overall depth of the conference. Small share of media market- which is dominated by Utah and BYU, Logan is a small city with little national interest. Lacks potential-Utah St is about as big as it will get while its academics and athletics are increasing the university has little room to grow, Logan, UT isn't exactly the most attractive city to live in.
UTEP-
- Pros-
- History- tradition with MWC schools would make their games more relevant.
- Large local support-what goes on in El Paso? UTEP football and basketball.
- Media markets- With Albuquerque and El Paso in the MWC's footprint the only real sports competition in the area is New Mexico State. UTEP would also be a great travel partner for New Mexico.
- The Hispanic Community- Do you know which FBS schools have the largest Hispanic fan base? Texas, Fresno St, and UTEP. By adding UTEP the MWC could tap into this growing market and gather national support and interest for not only UTEP/Fresno St but also for the conference as a whole.
Academically-is the lowest of these candidates Lack of recent football success-while they are bowl eligible this year, UTEP football over the past few years has been mediocre at best. Makes CUSA mad-they chose UTEP over LA Tech why would they want to give them up for LA Tech? Doesn't add/retain a huge market, like the other candidates (Houston, DFW, SLC).
SMU-
- Pros-
- Brings TCU's OOC rival into the MWC-which allows TCU an additional OOC game.
- Give's TCU a local travel partner-which also decrease non-revenue sports travel cost for the other MWC schools.
- Increased market saturation-Having both TCU and SMU in the MWC would increase interest in the conference in the DFW area, and if TCU leaves for the Big East then the MWC could retain a piece of the DFW market.
- History of excellence, SMU is one of the oldest elite programs in college football that is not in a major conference.
TCU doesn't want them-according the some of the TCU boards, TCU likes being the big dog in DFW and feels that by adding SMU it may detract from their cache in the region. Small private school-with small alumni base and mediocre football program. Lacks market saturation (yes pro and con)- the DFW market is already sports heavy with the Cowboys, Mavericks, Stars, FC Dallas, Rangers, Longhorns, Aggies, Sooners, Red Raiders, and Horn Frogs; so the Mustangs have little chance of conquering DFW. If TCU jumps to the Big East, SMU would keep the high cost of traveling to DFW, but without the football success.
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A couple quick points
SMU has more than 1 national championship. I know their men’s outdoor track team has won a handful, and they won a boatload of women’s diving championships too.
Also, though SMU is a “small private school” (even though it has over 10,000 students), I wouldn’t worry about it’s alumni base – the Mustang faithful are the type of wealthy donors you want to support your team and fill your stands. SMU’s endowment is rid-onk-ulous ($1.035 billion).
Houston has “potential” like North Texas does (the only FBS public school in DFW). And that’s not saying much.
I’ve also thrashed the meme before about Houston helping recruiting, but I digress. By that logic, C-USA would be an awesome conference (with a foot in recruit-rich areas like Dallas, Houston, Orlando, etc.).
Also, (another Houston point), the Cougars’ past OOC wins won’t help in the AQ-status bid, as they wouldn’t come in on time. And their past OOC wins haven’t been all that impressive anyway. You’re essentially betting on future OOC wins, which may or may not happen – especially after Sumlin inevitably leaves.
“Perkins Natatorium, the home of SMU swimming and diving since 1956, has run out of wall space. National and conference championship trophies are stacked two deep, and the walls are crammed with photographs of men’s and women’s national and international champions.”
http://www.smu.edu/SecondCentury/News/2009/ShowcasingMustangSpirit.aspx
by VA Libertarian on Nov 23, 2010 9:47 PM PST up reply actions
1.035 BILLION?
They are doing something right…
You know this boogie is for real.
by plainview88 on Nov 23, 2010 10:17 PM PST up reply actions
as far as SMU national championships.....
I couldn’t easily find enough info on their schools website, wikipedia (not a great page for SMU), or the NCAA (which requires you to go year by sport in each sport). I will update with the info from your link VA Lib thanks….
Houston....
You should know that I prefer UTEP by now, I think me and you have been in that boat since the beginning however this was me playing devils advocate to not only re-illustrate the UTEP/Houston debate but also throw in Utah St and SMU, who don’t get as much attention, and compare them.
However saying Houston’s potential is that same as North Texas is absurd but I love your twisty logic. The recruiting aspect I agree is way overrated but it is still selling point especially to coaches, but I wouldn’t hang all the expansion hopes on top recruiting grounds.
If this is done in January, I could see (as a super extreme long shot) how if the MWC took Houston, CUSA took LA Tech, and NM St, Utah St, San Jose St, and Idaho disband the WAC and joined the Sun Belt (for example) that Houston, Fresno St, Nevada, and Hawaii could all move into the MWC next year. I give it a 1% chance, but in all likelihood you are right.
Other than
Houston having some recent football success, I’d compare it to North Texas. They’re both giant commuter schools that are the only public FBS schools in their respective metro areas. I will give Houston credit for being much better than UNT at football, however, though that may be more of a reflection on the “Mean Green” than it is on the Cougars. :)
I know you’re with me on the UTEP-over-Houston, train, but I think Houston advocates should focus on three things:
-The Cougars have had better high points in the last 20 years, compared to UTEP, USU, & SMU. I say ‘high points’ because they’ve had some nasty low ones, and they’re overall pretty mediocre at football.
-Houston is a huge metro area. Whether anyone actually watches the Cougars or not, this could make for a slightly better tv deal. That being said, I don’t know how much it really adds to the tv deal, and if that makes it worth it.
-Houston’s airport is a hub, which generally means it has a lot of direct flights. This is particularly nice for the non-football sports who fly commercially.
Nevertheless, there are problems with those arguments
-Houston will probably be mediocre again when Sumlin leaves.
-Dallas is a huge metro area too, and that hasn’t helped the tv deal much.
-Dallas is also a hub (helping the SMU argument). Granted, it’s still a big advantage over UTEP & USU.
I could also focus on the fact that Houson is practically broke, as witnessed by the wretched conditions their basketball teams have had to endure, and the complete lack of funding for their new football stadium fantasy.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 23, 2010 11:59 PM PST up reply actions
Ooh, I should have also mentioned
That nobody even knows how the tv contract is going to look in the future, so it may be sort of premature to even worry about it or what markets are contained in it.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 24, 2010 12:01 AM PST up reply actions
Houston v North Texas
You have good points on this, but I still think the history and association that Houston has with the Southwest Conference and schools like Texas and A&M puts it far ahead of North Texas especially when you add in their football success. Compared to North Texas who has only been in the FBS since 1997 and the Sun Belt since 2001.
I meant outside of football
They’re basically the same school.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 24, 2010 1:08 AM PST up reply actions
football is all what matters
Having lived in Houston 20 years growing up I know the situation well. They are behind Texas and A&M plus the Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Astros and Rockets. However, their brand of football is very compelling right now and people will show up.
I thin the track record with Art Briles and now Kevin Sumlin shows they have some staying power without missing a beat with two coaches.
I think the potential for Houston is larger then any of the other candidates. UTEP is a close second, but when money is the key Houston wins out. The key word is ‘reach’ if the Mtn. is still planning being the primary channel for games that will give the area a huge boost in potential viewers. Comcast is the main cable provider for Houston and give the eyeballs needed.
Plus, a good point was made about keeping TCU in the league with Houston around. They go back to the SWC and could help them stay for travel reasons (longshot) but still a chance.
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by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 24, 2010 8:24 PM PST up reply actions
For Houston.....
I’d also argue that they sponsor all MWC sports except Men’s Swim/Dive, Men’s Tennis, and Women’s Golf. They could easily add Men’s Tennis and Women’s Golf with little cost to the university and Men’s Swim/Dive would just require more women’s scholarship and a coach since they already have Women’s Swim/Dive. Compared to Utah St and UTEP who do not sponsor M/W Swim/Dive nor baseball, and SMU who doesn’t have baseball or softball. These sports require large overhead for start-up cost for facilities that the universities would be hesitant to say the least. To me, baseball is a huge collegiate sport that all schools should look into sponsoring and I feel that Houston separates itself as an expansion team because of their baseball program.
I think baseball will continue to have less and less emphasis in college sports though
In this tough economy, Cal-Berkeley just dropped their baseball program. if a Pac-10 school, in a power baseball conference with a rich baseball tradition and the facilities already in place drops baseball, it speaks to lack of relative importance baseball holds on the college landscape.
I don’t think baseball/softball is a deal-breaker. I think UTEP/SMU would simply not sponsor softball/baseball if they were to be invited. So long as they sponsor ~90% of the conference’s sports, they should be fine.
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by notsellingjeans on Nov 26, 2010 4:47 PM PST up reply actions
Disagree with baseball having less and less emphasis...
the CWS/Super Regional/Regional had the highest total viewership than ever this year…..Cal’s dropping of baseball was more to drop 2 unprofitable women’s sports that cost extra money due to Title IX not because they are disinterested in baseball. The state of California’s budget crisis is ultimately to blame.
Not having Baseball/Softball isn’t a deal breaker but the MWC sponsors 17 sports, so 90% of that is 15.3 so….
SMU sponsors 15, Houston 14, Utah St 13, and UTEP only sponsors 12….
so that may make an impact in some aspect…..
Agreed
The state of California doomed Cal’s baseball team. College baseball is actually in the midst of one of its most popular periods, and there’s a new stadium boom all across the south and east.
But I also don’t think it’s a deal-breaker by any means.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 27, 2010 12:20 AM PST up reply actions
Once all the stats are laid out
It’s kind of hard to decide. SMU and USU both seem to have great academics and that would be a plus. SMU has the money and interest to keep the football program moving on up and Utah State may finally be moving up the ladder in football after their win over BYU. On the basketball side, Utah State is a powerhouse that could easily replace BYU while SMU is a doormat.
For Houston and UTEP, Houston doesn’t seem like that good of an option anymore – especially since they’re fighting to be bowl eligible this week, did anyone else know that? Houston has to beat Texas Tech if they want to go bowling this year. UTEP has the support behind them to make money as far as the TV Deal goes since a lot more people will be watching their games. UTEP also has an up and coming football program and an NCAA Tournament caliber basketball program. I say up and coming because their starting QB (Who has thrown for 2,511 yards and a 121.6 QB Rating this season) is only a sophomore and much of their talent is young. Not to mention that Mike Price put together a great recruiting class based on early season success, so the program will continue to rise.
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Losing Keenam really hurt Houston....
I don’t really hold it against them, Keenam was a big time QB at a mid-major school so his replacement isn’t going to play at the same level.
They actually lost
Keenum and their back-up. They’ve been playing with their third-stringer most of the year.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 24, 2010 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
utah state football averaging 13.219 over a five year period.
you are supposed to be averaging at least 15,000 a year but since the ncaa needs the teams i don’t think they are in any trouble of being demoted. p.s. i must admit i did not know utep’s stadium was bigger than RES.
Why do canadians stick together? The same reason why Chris Horodecki turned his body and face around in his first WEC fight.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 24, 2010 7:03 AM PST reply actions
You only have to average 15,000
Over a team-year period. USU was saved by BYU coming to town.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 24, 2010 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
that still means they at least failed 3 of the 5 seasons. i really don't care what there attendance is.....
but the ncaa made that rule. i would be curious what the idaho vandals (kibbie dome average) since their dome only holds i think a little less than 17,000.
Why do canadians stick together? The same reason why Chris Horodecki turned his body and face around in his first WEC fight.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 25, 2010 6:48 AM PST up reply actions
Idaho Vandals attendance
’09- 12,546
’08- 15,340
’07- 11,479
’06- 14,516
’05- 15,175
5 Year Average- 13,811
Hm
That’s interesting. I’m assuming they’ve received a waiver for the ‘06/’07 period. That, or the review is only every other year. i.e. in ‘05/’06 they had a year with 15,000 (‘05), in ’07/’08 they had a year with 15,000 (’08), etc.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 25, 2010 3:30 PM PST up reply actions
USU turned down the MWC before
Utah State let it slip that they were offered membership in the MWC during the last WAC/MWC battle. As the details came out about their involvement in those shenanigans I think they might have burned a few bridges. Their goal was to get Boise to crawl back to the WAC on their hands and knees and to destroy the MWC by stealing BYU, SDSU, and UNLV. When that backfired they then worked to cause as much financial harm to Nevada and Fresno after they made the great escape.
With Hawaii and LaTech lobbying for spots elsewhere, USU is the power-school in the WAC pulling Benson’s puppet strings; the same Benson who is trying to get TCU to jump ship to the Big East in football by offering a landing spot for everything else. That’s about damaging the MWC rather than strengthening the WAC. I think USU would be a cancer to the MWC as it has show it’s not above elementary school mean girls drama. I say let that whole state burn. We don’t need them.
intersting take....
However I’ve heard this argument a lot that if TCU joined the Big East as a football only member their other sports could land in the WAC/CUSA/Sun Belt ect….however I thought there was a rule that says a school must play football in their main conference if it offers sponsors it at they same level (unless they are independent like Notre Dame). That is why only Temple (Atlantic10) Hawaii (soon to be Big West) BYU (WCC) and Army/Navy (Patriot League) are the ones most often thrown out as football only membership their since the primary conferences wouldn’t sponsor football. So if TCU jumped as a football only member to the Big East I figured their other sports would be unable to join the WAC as long as it still sponsors football at the D1-A/FBS level. Does anyone have any information on this or am I just crazy?
I think
It’s possible to do the football-in-one-conference and all-other-sports-in-the-other thing, but conferences don’t generally allow it. Otherwise, why would TCU even have to issue a statement saying it was going to keep all its programs together in response to a football-to-the-Big East / WAC-for-everything-else rumor? They could have just said, “that’s not possible.”
Unless they were playing word games, of course, and they were exploring putting their other sports in the Southland or something.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 24, 2010 11:58 AM PST up reply actions
sure
I have trouble believing the MWC had a solid no strings attached offer on the table for Utah State. Vague discussions is all that likely happened.
Plus, before they add a 12th they better make sure they are definitely keeping the 11 they have.
Agreed there
If TCU is leaving it’s silly to add teams for the sake of it.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 25, 2010 3:31 PM PST up reply actions
everyone here has enjoyed making fun of the wac for la tech. houston is only a 2 drive to louisiana.
utep is the obvious choice. history. college town. fan support. perfect size market. good @ basketball & football.
smu is interesting b/c of tradition & the $. redundant with tcu. not a good fit as the 12th team.
utah st only location going for it & bball. if byu stayed they’d never be considered.
I still say BYU is an option for #12
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by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 25, 2010 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
cool post
I’m firmly against utah st, but would be fine with any of the other three. would come down to who is interested in coming I guess, hard for me to pick a favorite.
I'm pretty sure.....
all of them are interested except maybe Utah St, SMU wants to be with TCU, UTEP want to join there old WAC buddies, and Houston want to be in the better conference.
I think TCU to the big least
comes down to offering for all sports, or just football. There is a feeling of 2nd hand offer if it’s just football. And from all I’ve read that’s what the Big Least is going to offer.
I don’t think Houston or UTEP or SMU will keep them in the MWC one way or the other.
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I think
TCU will probably wait to see if the MWC gets AQ status. Their entire program oozes class, so I can’t see them up and leaving before knowing they have a good reason to.
And I agree with Redhawk – no school addition is going to help keep TCU.
by VA Libertarian on Nov 26, 2010 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
I probably should have said "help" keep TCU out of the big east
thats a little more along the lines I meant. still, you guys are right, none of them would make a difference.
in my opinion....
all the Texas schools have the same appeal to TCU however SMU may offer more of an incentive because they already play OOC every year, if SMU becomes an in-conference rival, it allows TCU an extra OOC that they can play with a big boy who can pay them. But honestly the only thing that will “help” TCU stay would be a new TV contract for the MWC.
We desperately need a new TV Contract
I’m fine with everything except for Versus, they pay much less then ESPN would and have the same if not worse reach as ESPN. Not to mention that Versus only shows one Mountain West game a week while ESPN would show two or three games a week.
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I'm not ok with the Mnt or CBSCS
I don’t know many people that have access to either of these channels
ESPN/FOX Sport have been battling over college football I guarantee you the if the MWC was to break the contract then they would get a nice payday from this bidding process like the ACC did.
Poll results and the comments section seem to be stating the same theme:
Most people think Houston and UTEP are far ahead of the other two as viable candidates. I agree. To me Utah State is a very distant 4th because football and TV/market are going to drive the majority of these decisions, and Utah St. is last in those areas.
I think the MWC could really sell TCU on staying if they did all of the following:
a.) Invite Houston, UTEP, and SMU, taking the conference to 14 teams (tentatively) if TCU stays.
b.) Have a six-team Pacific Division and an 8-team Mountain/Texas Division.
c.) TCU would then have seven in-conference divisional games, four of which are at home. For their eighth conference game each year, allow them to play at Hawaii every year*. This would allow them a 13th game every year, and since SMU is already in their new divisional schedule, they would have tons of flexibility with those last five non-conference games. Those five OOC games would give them a chance to bolster their resume against national teams, and host additional lucrative home games.
*This is showing a lot of favoritism to TCU, which might alienate people…but then again, TCU is leaving money on the table by staying in the MWC, so maybe they deserve some special consideration.
If TCU leaves, I still like the idea of inviting those three teams, because it leaves you with a solid 12 teams for non-football sports, and the opportunity to host a championship game in the 13-team football league.
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by notsellingjeans on Nov 26, 2010 5:11 PM PST reply actions
interesting....
however this would only work if they could renegotiate the TV contract because more teams equals less money….
And if you have Houston, SMU, and TCU (plus UTEP) the Texas legislator and the old SWC enthusiast will certainly try to force you to take Rice too. While they are horrible at football they do have great academics and SWC history (NOT advocating just stating the obvious).
I feel that this would resemble the old 16 team WAC a little too closely so I doubt this would ever happen.
If the MWC was smart they would be talking with the Sun Belt and CUSA about dismantling the WAC. The MWC takes one of the Texas schools (UTEP/SMU/Houston) and Denver (non football school to fill in the Hawaii gap), CUSA takes LA Tech, and the Sun Belt takes TX St, UTSA, NM St, and Utah St leaving only San Jose St and Idaho in the WAC. This would keep the MWC as the top tier mid-major (hopefully not for long) and CUSA as a distance second both with 12 schools, and the Sun Belt with 14 with schools from New Mexico to Florida.
San Jose St. and Idaho are going to end up out in the cold. You hit the nail on the head.
I could definitely see everything unfolding exactly as you suggested in the comment above.
It seems the theme is, “It hurts to be the worst/least desirable”: a) WAC suddenly became the least desirable conference due to the defections, and its existence is in jeopardy, and b.) San Jose St. and Idaho, being the least desirable teams in the conference due to a combo of geography and lack of success, will be the ones left feeling unloved at the FBS level.
Let’s take it a few steps further:
1. San Jose State joins the Big West Conference in all sports except football, which it places in the Big Sky
2. Idaho joins the Big Sky Conference in all sports
3 Sacramento State stays in the Big Sky for football, but joins SJSU in the Big Sky, paying the Big Sky an exit fee but benefiting significantly from the reduced travel.
4. This makes the Big Sky a 16-team football conference, and a 12-team conference for its other sports, which are a pretty tight geographic fit for travel.
This leaves the Big West at 12 teams, 5 of which play football elsewhere:
Cal Poly*
UC Davis*
UC Santa Barbara
U of the Pacific
UC Irvine
UC Riverside
CS Long Beach
CS Fullerton
CS Northridge
Hawaii*
SJSU*
Sac State*
(If Sac State stays in the Big Sky full-time, newly Division independent CS Bakersfield becomes the 12th).
The Big Sky becomes a 16-team juggernaut, with the strength to one day take the entire conference up to I-A/FBS if they choose to explore the idea in 10-20 years after some significant growth by the smaller programs.
Big Sky Pacific: SJSU, Cal Poly, UC Davis, Sac State, Idaho, Idaho State, Eastern Washington, Portland State
Big Sky Mountain: South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Montana State, Southern Utah, Weber State, Northern Colorado, Northern Arizona.
Or maybe you’d split it differently for the sake of California recruiting, like the “Pac-12” recently did.
It looks bad PR-wise for SJSU and Idaho, but is it really that bad for them? They’d probably save a lot of money for their athletic departments, they’d join some old rivals and create some good new rivalries, they’d have great long-term stability, with the chance to eventually return to FBS with a conference in a decade if their programs improve. Plus, they’d be a heck of a lot more competitive than they currently are.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Nov 27, 2010 2:53 AM PST up reply actions
good theory but a few thoughts.....
South Dakota opted to stay with its plans on joining the Summit League and also joined the Missouri Valley Football Conference where SDST and NDST play, so the Big Sky will only have 11 all sports members and 13 football members (bad numbers logistically). All indications are that if one of the MVFC’s members leaves (like Youngstown St) or another team is added (Nebraska-Omaha) then North Dakota will join its Dakota brethren in the Summit/MVFC. They want to either go to 12 or stay at 10 members. So assuming North Dakota leaves the Big Sky in the near future I can easily see both San Jose St and Idaho joining as full members putting them at 12 all sport members and 14 football playing members. I would also assume, like you did, and CS Bakersfield will join the Big West Bus League. I’ve also heard the rumors about the entire conference upgrading, which would be interesting to say the least.
I did not know the South Dakota news, good info, thank you. Well then I think you’re right and North Dakota isn’t long for the Big Sky. I doubt the conference members will mind that at all – it narrows the long-term geographic footprint a little.
Supposedly CS Bakersfield has wanted to get into the Big West for a while and the Big West has seen no incentive to add them thus far. Certainly the addition of Hawaii is heck of a lot more attractive than Bakersfield.
My future Big West expansion candidates list looks like this:
a.) Bakersfield – the most likely, because of their known desire.
b.) San Jose St. – because I think they’ll be conference-less in six months.
c.) Sac State – because the Big Sky has shown new flexibility in allowing football-only members, and this reduces travel costs for Sac and their Big Sky brethren. Big Sky might be amenable to this if it came with adding Idaho as a full member.
d.) UC San Diego – outstanding academics, one of the best Division II athletic programs in the country, multiple Sears Cup awards. In the giant UC/CSU systems, UCSD is the only remaining D-II or D-III school who could make this jump in the next 15 years. They’d have to increase their athletic budget a great deal, but they also have a terrific endowment and location for recruiting.
I think two of those four will ultimately end up in the Big West someday, allowing the conference to settle in at 12 teams. What are your thoughts?
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Nov 27, 2010 10:25 AM PST up reply actions
Completely agree...
12 is the magic number that allows for easier scheduling in non-conference sports.
However, I have a feeling that if San Jose St and Idaho drop to FCS the Big Sky will bend over backwards to get them both is as all sports members plus they may want to stay together. The Big Sky, like the Big West, wants 12 members too, if North Dakota takes off they would be down to 10 all sports members to Idaho and San Jose could easily slip in. Both Idaho and San Jose also will want to get back to the FBS ASAP so if they join the Big Sky in all sports there is a better chance of the conference upgrading to FBS with Montana, Montana St, UC Davis, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Portland St, Sacramento St, Weber St, and Idaho St. The worst of the conference which may cause them a problem are Southern Utah and Northern Colorado, and Northern Arizona is having budget issues and may even drop football. As far as the Big West goes I assume they will want to add Hawaii, Cal Bakersfield, and Pepperdine from the WCC. Sac St and San Jose St would be good addition however the Big West knows that both school will be moving to the FBS in a few years so they would probably want to stick with more stable long term members.
Pepperdine? Interesting.
I did not know the Big West would like to add a WCC school. What would be Pepperdine’s motive to leave the WCC?
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Nov 27, 2010 10:55 PM PST up reply actions
Mostly just to reduce travel cost, they are dead center of Big West country.
The furthest schools Pepperdine would have to travel to in the WCC are St. Mary’s, San Fransico, and Santa Clara in North California; Portland in North Oregon, Gonzaga in Washington, and BYU in Utah.
If they were to join the Big West they would only travel have to UC Davis, and Pacific in North California and now Hawaii.
Good points.
Pepperdine is also the only non-Catholic school in the WCC (until BYU joins).
But they’d be the only religious-affiliated school in the Big West (UOP is private but non-denominational).
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Nov 28, 2010 9:12 PM PST up reply actions
This is such an awesome post, TowerPower
Tons of research, I learned a great deal. Thanks for all the time you put in.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Nov 26, 2010 5:15 PM PST reply actions
UC San Diego is the "mystery school" applying to the Big West
So Bakersfield and Hawaii and UCSD will all be decided upon on December 8th.
My guess is that they take all three, or take Hawaii only.
If they took all three they would break into two six-team divisions.
Cal Poly
UC Davis
Pacific
Hawaii
UCSB
Bakersfield
UC Riverside
Northridge
UCSD
Long Beach
Fullerton
UC Irvine
Not sure where that leaves San Jose State if the WAC ends up disbanding.
The Oakland A's: If you have a no-trade clause in your contract, we're in it.
by notsellingjeans on Dec 5, 2010 10:08 AM PST reply actions
Good find...
here’s the story, I assume, like I said above, that San Jose St will head to the Big Sky with Idaho if they downgrade, they could also go independent or disband football and quite a few other sports all together due to budget issues.
Houston: I wish
Houston’s potential is somewhat due to recruiting, but Houston is the fourth largest city in the US. That means having a whole new area with a ton of TV sets for “the Mtn.” and maybe adding Dish Network and reworking the terrible TV contract the MW has. At the time of this posting, if the MW had been able to land Houston, it would have the no.5 team (BSU) and the no. 19 team (Houston). The Big (L)East has no. 24 and no. 25 (but about to lose it: WVU). Meaning the MW could legitimately petition for AQ status. Houston is a logical replacement for TCU which would be adding power teams, such as SMU and Houston to upgrade the strength of the conference as a whole. Two more teams with similar potential to add to Football and basketball strength would be desirable. Maybe a Rice and Tulsa (Louisville and Cincy, I wish! But if Big Least gets more shaky and there is no Big XII invite…). We need to be proactive and not sit around and wait until we get raided and then lose any shot at potential upgrade universities and be stuck with WAC teams as a fall back, such as USU and or SJSU. That won’t help conference strength, and the MW would will end up with no AQ and no new TV contract.
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