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Reasons Why TCU Lost to Boise State

A lot of people thought TCU would win be at least the seven points that they were favored by, in part because people were discounting Boise State's schedule and not looking at the team.  Boise's schedule was weaker but the team itself is has been a national player for most of this decade.

Boise came out with the pressure on defense and rocked Andy Dalton right from the start and the corner blitz by CB Kyle Wilson that Andy Dalton did not even see.  That play set the tone for the Boise defense which brought a lot of pressure and made Andy Dalton look pedestrian.  Also, the TCU rushing offense that was solid and averaged 255 yards per game which was good enough for fifth in the nation.  Boise was able to stifle the rush attack to only 36 total yards, and that caused the passing game to be used more often then TCU would liked.

To take a step back Andy Dalton was primarily a game manager in 2008 and had only 11 touchdowns in comparison to his 22 this year.  This year he did take a step forward, but part of that was because there were that many more weapons then he had to work with.  With the Boise State defensive backs getting their hands on anything and everything which included three picks, one returned for a score, and countless tips.  For some reason the offensive coordinator kept throwing the ball deep and in the middle of the field.

Star-divide

The one thing that TCU should have done -- easy to play arm chair QB -- is use their play making wide receiver Jeremy Kerley who is a speed receiver and is very good in space and one on one coverage.  Kerley did catch 6 for 65 yards while not terrible, but he was not used to his advantage.  Just take a look at his return stats in this game where he had six returns for 98 yards.  For some reason he was not used once in the wildcat spot which Kerley was in often and succeeded, so not sure why he was not used there and let him create his own play.

Getting back to Dalton he did have three picks and realistically could have had two or three more that were tipped up or went through the Boise defenders.  Dalton was making passes across his body and that horrible floater pass that was the final pick of the game and sealed the deal.  The one great pass TCU made was an incomplete pass that was the receivers fault where the ball was caught but his knee dislodged the ball which would have been in the end zone to tie the game 17-17. 

With Boise State able to stop the running game that forced TCU to third and long and forced Andy Dalton to pass which resulted in the Horned Frogs going 1-12 on third downs.  During the regular season TCU was 31st in the country on third down conversions at 41 percent on the year.  This made Andy Dalton become more of a passer then he has been in his career.  With the running game contained and TCU being forced to pass on third downs Boise was able to bring the heat on Dalton. 

I wonder if part of the reason is that the offense struggled is that TCU has co-offensive coordinators.  The play calling was sloppy with minimal quick passes, misdirections, or screens to counter the Boise speed.  Those plays would have drastically improved their offense ten fold.

The defense has nothing to be ashamed of they gave up only ten points and held Boise State well below their normal output.  The game came down to a few plays that made the difference in the outcome.  The two biggest were first the dropped pass in the end zone and then the fake punt.  Had either of those gone the other way this game would have gone into over time and who knows what would happen.

Tough loss for the Mountain West as they end the bowl season with an impressive 4-1 bowl record which will be the best winning percentage by any league.  TCU should be loaded next year -- as will Boise State -- and 2010 can not get here soon enough.

Poll
Why did TCU lose?
Lack of running game
216 votes
Andy Dalton
44 votes
Boise State's secondary
581 votes
Offensive play calling
97 votes
The fake punt
45 votes
Dropped pass that would have tied the game for TCU
41 votes

1024 votes | Poll has closed

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One thing about Kerley

It seemed that Boise State had Kyle Wilson matched one on one with Kerley all night. That is why he appeared to be playing safety all the while just lining up over Kerley who was in the slot. This could explain his decreased production in the passing game.

As for the running game, I was surprised to not see Kerley line up in the backfield for the wildcat at least once. That’s what I was afraid of.

by Nick Kroes on Jan 7, 2010 9:18 AM PST reply actions  

He did do it. Once.

That was part of the problem.

by HawkeyedFrog on Jan 7, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions  

dalton was floating passes most of the night

tcu was not ready for the big time. i just can’t wait till next year when tcu plays a very much improved utah offensive team and utah kicks their azz. boise state showed the bluprint the utes need to use it. tcu loses both hughes and washington. they were the two guys making most of the plays on defense. the defense only allowed 10 points. dalton threw a pick six. tcu also loses one of their top cb. utah should win the mwc next year and might go undefeated. i expect every mwc team to be better except byu. they lose hall, pitta and possibly unga. i’m especially excited for air force and wyoming. if the coach of wyoming could find a couple of decent wr’s from the juco ranks they could win nine games next year with their spread offense. i like there freshman qb and rb. they could be like the texas tech of the mwc with a decent coach. i still want tcu to win 11 games just not make the big show. the mwc could possible get 4 teams with ten wins next season. i can’t wait.

i'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. i was building a house, i don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. bang. "unforgiven"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 7, 2010 11:41 AM PST reply actions  

It’s a combination of several things I’ve pointed out several times. Each one feeds into the other, which explains my rage building with each step.

1.) Offensive playcalling. Abandonment of the running game. We got stuffed on our first possession, but after that we ran the ball quite effectively. If we had run dives and power up the middle we could’ve worn down the excellent Bronco back 7 throughout the game.
Because we abandoned the running game, the key is for Dalton to find routes that work and pick on where the Boise Secondary has problems.
2.) Andy Dalton loves him some deep ball. Three picks, two tipped balls that should’ve been intercepted and a grand total of one successful play from the deep sideline routes would seem to indicate Dalton thinks his arm strength is a whole lot better than it actually is. If he had worked the slants and crossing routes in the middle of the field, he would’ve had more success. Or if…
3.) Offensive playcalling. Again. So for some reason we decided there wasn’t enough room on the team flight for our running backs. That’s bad, but it doesn’t mean death, because the Boise secondary played with a fairly deep cushion (to help on the deep sideline routes! A theme emerges.) and as a result, the quick hitches and outs in the flats led to first downs on all but one time they were called. Often our receiver would make the Boise corner miss the tackle, resulting in bonus yards and a 10ish yard pickup. This would be a good job of attacking the weakness that the Boise secondary showed against us: they weren’t tackling particularly well. They weren’t getting beaten deep, but I saw more than a couple of pairs of shoes that Boise CBs had been juked out of.
4.) Boise’s secondary is good at not giving up the deep pass. Considering how many times we tried it last night, it would seem foolish to put it all on Dalton without giving credit to the Broncos. They were well coached and obviously well practiced in tipping balls and coming down with it.

They played us with a cushion to take away the deep pass, and through a combination of offensive playcalling and Dalton’s ginger brain, we decided that we would not win the game without completing a lot of those deep passes.

Arrgh.

by HawkeyedFrog on Jan 7, 2010 2:15 PM PST reply actions  

What thought was amazing

Was that the Broncos shut down the run game of TCU allowing only 36 yards, all the while playing 5 and 6 defensive backs almost the entire game.

Boise State - The best in all the land (The "land" being Idaho, and large parts of California, Oregon, and Nevada.)

by Mikrino on Jan 8, 2010 7:07 AM PST reply actions  

If you look at the game again, you’ll see it’s not that Boise State shut down TCU’s running game. They stuffed the run on the first series, but after that, the running game made some good progress. It’s that TCU’s playcalling went almost entirely away from the running game for some ungodly reason.

As for the “five and six defensive backs” point, TCU plays with 5 DBs all the time, and they seem to do all right against the run (top 5 seemingly every year).

by HawkeyedFrog on Jan 8, 2010 7:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Clearly

 BSU was the better team.

     Rah, rah, TCU BSU “GONNA BEAT THE HELL OUTTA YOU AND YOU AND YOU!”

"Gandhi didn't take a knee, Martin Luther King didn't take a knee, Thomas Edison didn't take a knee, and I sure as hell am not going to take a knee." - Dan Hawkins

by BoiseState on Jan 8, 2010 7:42 AM PST reply actions  

BSU/TCU

 Last year TCU had the better game plan, not so this year, BSU was better prepared for the game. BSU’s defense was superb, without a doubt the big difference in the game. BSU’s O-line has to be one of the best in the NCAA, they played well the entire game. The noise inside the stadium when TCU had the ball was incredible. BSU fans arrived early and boo’d TCU at every opportunity. I guess they enjoy the WWF during the offseason?

Congratulations to Utah U for their victory over TCU next year and an undefeated season!

by LongHornCaddy on Jan 8, 2010 11:46 AM PST reply actions  

Utah is going to have to get a whole lot better this offseason if either of your predictions are going to come true, Caddy.

by HawkeyedFrog on Jan 8, 2010 7:52 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree HawkeyedFrog, my comments were in reference to wolfmanshowlforever’s statement

by LongHornCaddy on Jan 9, 2010 11:36 PM PST reply actions  


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