FanPost

UNLV's Post Season Chances

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Ok, I know most people haven't been paying much attention to UNLV since their loss to Utah at home, but pretty soon we'll be going into the second half of the conference season. UNLV has a game on Wednesday against Wyoming and than they head into the second half of the conference season. BYU has an in-state rivalry game today against Utah. If BYU doesn't lose again in the first half of the conference season, that will make the top 3 conference standings:

1. BYU - 22-2 (7-1)

2. New Mexico - 20-3 (6-2)

3. UNLV - 18-4 (6-2)

The next 2 games for UNLV are home against BYU, and home against New Mexico.

The next 2 games for BYU are @UNLV and home against Air Force.

The next 2 games for New Mexico are home against SDSU and @UNLV.

 

New Mexico will probably be ranked around 20 come this Monday, they beat BYU on Wednesday, that will make them a pretty good team getting ready to go up against SDSU and then UNLV. If they beat SDSU on Saturday, then they will probably be ranked even higher, maybe 17 or 18. BYU will probably drop on Monday from their 10th rank, but not very far because New Mexico was ranked. BYU has upcoming games against Utah and TCU before they start the second half of the conference season. They will probably be around 14 or 15 come time to go to UNLV. So as you can see UNLV will have a pretty tough job going against BYU and New Mexico, 2 ranked teams, luckily it is at home.

If UNLV beats BYU and UNM, they still have to go to SDSU the following Saturday. If, they can beat all 3 then they will probably be ranked around 17 or 18 because right now UNLV is receiving votes, beating 2 ranked teams and a tough SDSU team will definitely put us at that point. After that, they basically go in to the "easy stretch" of the rest fo the conference season. They have 2 more road games, one against Utah and Air Force and the 3 home games are against Colorado St, Wyoming, and TCU. Now I know we aren't going to finish the second half of the conference season undefeated... (I personally think we will relax against Utah and lose) But we will probably end up around 17 or 18 in the polls at the end of the season heading into the MWC Tournament.

Now, here are my predictions for the MWC Tournament seeding:

1. BYU

2. UNLV

3. New Mexico

4. SDSU

5. Utah

6. Colorado St.

7. Wyoming

8. TCU

9. Air Force

 

BYU's only loss in the second half of the season will come against UNLV. New Mexico will lose again to San Diego State unfortunately and will finish with a 12-4 conference record, putting them in the 3rd spot. SDSU's only loss will be to UNLV, giving them a 12-4 conference record also, but will get the 4 seed because New Mexico has the better non-conference record. Utah will beat only one of the top 4 teams but will beat all the rest of the teams because they are a better team then the rest of them.

Colorado St. is in between Utah level and bottom of the league level, they will beat all the lowest teams in the conference but won't win many other games. Wyoming beat SDSU in San Diego, so I give them an edge over TCU and Air Force. TCU is better than Air Force just because they have shown more consistency and ability then Air Force.

TCU will win the play-in game over Air Force, earning the right to face BYU.

First Round:

1.BYU over 8.TCU

2.UNLV over 7.Wyoming

3.New Mexico over 6.Colorado St.

5.Utah over 4.SDSU

I'm going with the traditional matchups in the first three games, but I just think Utah will turn it on and take down SDSU.

Second Round:

1.BYU over 5.Utah

2.UNLV over 3.New Mexico

I picked BYU over Utah because BYU has more talent and consistency than Utah does. I picked UNLV over New Mexico because, according to my predictions, UNLV beat New Mexico twice in the regular season, and the whole tournament is basically a home game for the Rebels.

Championship Round:

2.UNLV over 1. BYU

I picked UNLV to beat BYU because of what UNLV showed in the regular season, the season series was split, the home team winning each one. They had the game won in Utah, but gave it away in the last 4 minutes, plus it is a relevant home game for UNLV, where they won.

This puts UNLV around 14 or 15 in the polls heading into the NCAA Tourney selection show.

 

Now, how does this all relate to UNLV making the NCAA Tournament and where they will be? UNLV will be ranked as a 4 seed because they have 4 wins against teams that were ranked at the time they beat them. Plus, they're losses, except for Utah, were all against teams with an RPI lower than 50.

As for the rest of the conference, BYU will make it in as a 5 seed because they went 31-4 (including the MWC Tournament) and beat so many good teams, with their losses being against a #23 ranked New Mexico team, losing twice to UNLV, a tough team to beat, and their only bad loss coming against Utah State. N

ew Mexico will make it in as an 8 seed because they went 27-6, losing to SDSU and UNLV twice, and once to Oral Roberts, who really hurt their resume. Unfortunately, SDSU will not be going to the NCAA Tournament this season because they finish 22-8 (11-5). They tried but could only beat New Mexico and were upset in the MWC Tourney by Utah. They don't have enough signature wins, and they don't have a good record this season.

Hopefully nobody gets mad at me for making these predictions :D

Bottom line, we send 3 teams to the NCAA Tourney, all winning in the first round, New Mexico losing in the second, BYU or UNLV making it past the Sweet 16 and then that team losing in the Elite 8.

Good Luck to everyone's team...

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