Can TCU Claim the AP National Title?
by Jeremy Mauss on Jan 1, 2010 2:45 PM PST
in News
42 comments
First reaction is to say not a chance because TCU needs help by being ranked behind both Texas and Alabama who are playing in the title game. However, if one just goes back to last year Utah was sixth in the final AP poll, but between a beat down over Alabama and a grass roots email effort to the voters Utah was second with 16 first place votes.
The benefit that Utah had was that they beat Alabama who was number one in the country for nearly the entire year before they lost in the SEC title game. However, in saying that TCU is ranked third and really only needs a close game win by Texas over Alabama in the title game. Also, the Sugar Bowl game tonight will have an impact, because Cincinnati is fourth while Florida is fifth and is a very similar game to the Fiesta bowl.
However a win over Florida by an undefeated Cincinnati team will look better in the eyes of some voters because 'hey it's Florida and they are from the SEC' Even with a TCU win over an undefeated and higher ranked Boise State team it is not out of the question of the Bearcats leap frogging TCU (i know a bad pun) for beating the Gators.
TCU will need to have a convincing win over Boise State to try pass the winner of the national title game. TCU may have a tough time blowing out Boise State, because in last year's matchup in the Poinsettia Bowl TCU only won 17-16. Each team has a great offense and a great defense, however TCU's defense has come against some better competition. Also, TCU's rush defense is just amazing which will have a tough time keeping up their average of 80 yards per game when Boise rushes for 195 per game.
One thing to consider but will most likely not be considered is that TCU faced six bowl teams during the regular season and they all have won their games. All four conference foes won: Air Force, BYU, Wyoming, and Utah. Then SMU smoked Nevada and Clemson won their game as well. That should be considered but who knows if the AP voters do their homework when voting -- something I seriously doubt.
To put it simple TCU must win by a large margin, Texas needs to squeak by Alabama in an ugly game, and either a Florida win or a sloppy Cincinnati win. Now, in my opinion TCU will get some first place votes in a similar fashion how Utah did last year, but a split title is just out of reach.
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No chance in hell
Sorry, but there is no chance in hell. The difference is the other teams last year were all 1 loss teams. While Utah last year went undefeated.
I did rank Utah #1 in my computer poll last year, which shows that my poll doesn’t hold biases etc. But TCU has no chance at doing that this year. Because either Texas or Alabama will be undefeated with tougher schedules and a bigger game.
Utah also had a tougher schedule last year than TCU has this year. And Texas should have been in the national championship game instead of Oklahoma. The shuffle at the end of the year last year also contributed to Utah being #1 in my poll.
This year it’s still #1 vs #2 in the AP poll. I don’t see how that is going to happen. I think TCU’s best chance would be in a computer poll. Utah only got 1 national championship last year awarded to them, and it was by a computer poll as well – and only 1 of them(not mine, it was a recognized computer poll).
The circumstances are no where near as good as they were last year for Utah. The number of undefeated teams is the biggest factor. The strength of the MWC schedules require them to go undefeated and everyone else have atleast 1 loss before they have any chance. Didn’t happen this year.
Schedule
I could argue that TCU and Texas schedule is not really that much of a difference. The top teams TCU played are better then Texas top teams. TCU beat 3 teams: BYU, Utah, and Clemson who will finish in the top 25. I assume Clemson will be in the top 25 after their win, plus they were ACC runner up. While Texas played Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Oklahoma State: Oklahoma beat Stanford so that is a possibility. TCU did play a bad Colorado State and New Mexico, but Texas played a very bad Louisana-Monroe and UTEP.
The mid level teams is where Texas gets the nod in terms of schedule. TCU played 6 bowl teams with all wins while Texas played 7 but that included the extra game against Nebraska in the Big XII title game. Texas gets an edge but not by much.
you are wrong
the mwc has already won the trophy for best win percentage by a conf. in the bowl games at 4-0. also smu stomped nevada 45-10 and they were on tcu schedule as was clemson. that makes 6 teams that tcu beat that won their bowl game. 4 of those games were beatdowns. byu beatdown oregon state. utah crushed cal, air force crushed houston and smu did their job on nevada. the dogs all came in today except cincy. the odds are the favs wil take over. that means i expect tcu to beat boise by at least 10 points. i’m very proud of the mwc and when we go 5-0 there will be more talk of the mwc of getting aq bcs bowl bid.i’m back from the holiday season and i have alot to say. peace.
yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 1, 2010 7:27 PM PST reply actions
I think TCU will win
I think TCU will beat Boise St. Boise St hasn’t played a D like TCU all year. They beat Oregon, but Oregon’s D is weak – as shown by Ohio St. I think it will be a difference of more than 10 points.
SMU beating Nevada was a surprise. But the rest really weren’t big surprises IMO. I picked all the rest to win, and they did. Air Force over Houston was a surprise to some, but I picked AF to win. SMU was a big surprise to me however, I didn’t see that one coming.
I think MWC made a case for being an automatic bid. But personally, I think the automatic bid should done away with completely and if you’re gonna have it then it should be extended to all anyway. It’s dumb anyway, let the teams that deserve it most go, who gives a crap about conferences outside the strength they bring in the schedules naturally? But no chance at a National Title this year.
It’s not the top half of the MWC that looks so bad, it’s the bottom half that needs to pick it up. TCU, Utah and BYU all get screwed because of the bottom half of the MWC. Air Force does it’s part, but the bottom doesn’t at all. The bottom is like a bunch of Vandy’s.
next year the mwc is stronger
utah returns almost every offensive starter including 2 qb’s withh ncaa experience. air force has almost entire starting team coming back and so does wyoming. tcu loses 2 best defensive players but patterson is great at finding gems at lb position. i also expect sdsu to be improved and colorado state. byu will be weaker b/c they lose hall and pitta and maybe unga but the rest of the conference should be better. i agree with the aq. do away with it and i would let a sunbelt team play in a bcs bowl if they could beat three bcs conf. teams and their schedule. they add south alabama in 2011. i think their is going to be alot of movement and positioning in the college football off-season. i think the big 10 (11) will goto to 12 teams and i see the mwc doing the same thing. i’m just wondering if it will be bsu, nevada and fresno or take the texas route in houston, smu and tulsa(oklahoma)
yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 1, 2010 8:20 PM PST up reply actions
Oregon's D Weak??
Um really? they were a top 30 total defensive team, which is not great. However they play in an offensive Pac-10
They lost games while scoring over 40 pts...
Purdue scored 38 points on them. Arizona – the team Nebraska shut out the other day scored 41 points on them, and Stanford scored 51 points on them.
Boise St only scored 19 points on them, which is why I think TCU will crush Boise St. Because TCU’s defense is miles ahead of Oregons.
You exaggerate. Oregon's D was good, but not great.
First Oregon did not lose games when scoring over 40 points, they lost a game (singular).
Arizona scored scored 31 points in regulation and 10 points in the 2 overtimes. And finally Purdue scored 36 points, not 38.
On the other hand, they held Boise State to their lowest total of the season, California to 3 (tied for their lowest output), and Washington State to 6.
Considering how fast they snap the ball and how quickly they tend to score, their defense was pretty good. The game is longer for other teams to score. It’s an apples to oranges comparison when comparing them to a ball control offense.
They are above average
Well, they are above average considering there are 121 teams. But, when you get to talking about the cream of the crop and so forth, they aren’t much to write home about.
That Boise St had a hard time with Oregon is exactly why I say Boise St hasn’t played a defense like TCU – who ranks up in the top3 for defenses. If Boise St thinks Oregon’s defense was tough, then they are in for a nightmare in TCU.
TCU is quite simply on another level defensively than Oregon and Boise St hasn’t faced a defense like it yet.
Sure, 30th ranked D isn’t “weak” or below average among all 120 teams. But it is weak among the top 30 teams and compared to the top5 defensive teams.
Cincinnati's win helps.
I don’t think TCU will get to the #1 spot but it will be interesting to see how many #1 votes they attain.
First, TCU needs to rout Boise State or the conversation is over. Boise State is a solid team and will provide a solid test for TCU to prove themselves to a national audience.
Utah got 25% of the #1 votes last year. If Alabama destroys Texas TCU would be lucky to get that. In any other case I think TCU will get more 1st place votes than Utah with a maximum near a close Texas win. Name an undefeated team with more wins over bowl winning teams than TCU?
Progress towards a split vote would be victory enough for me.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
bowl winning teams...
You can make the argument about bowl winning teams, but sportswriters don’t see it that way. You’re just looking for any stat to quote and pretending it’s “the measure”.
It would for example be impossible for Alabama to have such a win %, since VT played Tenn, and Alabama played both of them. Not to mention that Alabama played way more bowl teams than TCU, and the biggest win of any of the teams you mention was over #16 Oregon St.
Bowl games just count as another game on the year. Their big deal is it’s the last game of the year, so carries that “what have you done for me lately” weight with the polls, and they usually result in good/tough matchups for teams, which adds a nice boost to their overall SoS.
Make the argument if you want, but I doubt many others will see it that way.
That record either way is impressive
Had TCU opponents or Boise State’s opponents lost all of their bowl games that stat would flash everywhere. TCU played 6 bowl teams while ’Bama played 8 bowl teams which is not a TON more. Florida makes nine which does count, but that is an extra earned game.
TCU opponents 6-0
Alabama opponents 3-3 with three games left
Texas opponents 3-1 with two games left
You have to consider the matchups.
The best possible record for Alabama’s opponents is 5-1.
Kentucky, probably ranked somewhere around 6h in the SEC took on Clemson and kept it close. Clemson was the 2nd half of the ACC championship.
LSU played Penn St. 2 teams that were evenly ranked, and both in the top15. Still, LSU lost by 2 points.
Florida beat the #4 team. Auburn beat a team ranked #30 in the AP poll – Auburn unranked.
In each of those games, a lower ranked SEC team was paired with a higher ranked opponent. In the case of the VT vs Tenn game, 1 was a top 15 team, tennessee probably ranked 5th in the SEC. LSU was the exception, they were ranked 1 position higher than PSU.
Meanwhile, the highest rank opponent TCU’s opponents faced was #16 Oregon St. And that was against a higher ranked BYU. Utah, a ranked team played an unranked team. AirForce beat a higher ranked Houston, but Houston has been on a slide lately and is ranked #27 in the AP poll. About the equivilant of Auburn over Northwestern.
SMU win was the big shocker, but still it was against no where near being ranked Nevada. And Wyoming over Fresno St is also nothing to write home about.
Can’t just look at 6-0 and 3-3 and say 6-0 is greater than the 3 and 3, as if all the games were equal in their matchups and so forth. They simply aren’t/weren’t.
All those wins does help TCU for sure, don’t get me wrong. But no where near enough to put them in the national title picture, and the win/losses of Alabama and Texas’s opponents aren’t as bad as you are making them out to be.
hmmm
Louisiana-Monroe and UTEP those are crap, as is Chattanooga. I know opponents play a part to bowl records, however you must remember to date BYU, Wyoming, SMU, Utah, and Air Force were all underdogs and won their bowl game.
Only one I didn't pick to win of those named was SMU
And you show your bias named La-Monroe, UTEP and Chatt, but hmmm, where is Texas St. in your list?
Not to sound like a douche but who really cares about your picks
I was referring to Vegas who makes the lines.
If I picked them to win, then there must have been a reason for it.
It just means I already had a pretty decent idea on the strength of the teams and so forth, and the wins weren’t big shockers to me. I was already speaking about the teams with the expectation of them winning.
Although to be honest, it’s not me that picks them. It’s my computer.
I realize you were talking about vegas lines, but I never considered them underdogs. Except SMU. That one was almost unbelievable. By all means of statistical measure, it should have been the same score, but the teams reversed.
I think next year I’m gonna start publishing my rankings and stuff. I base a good bit of my opinion based on the number crunching it does. It gets good information like quality stats, which are stats a team scored above the average and so forth.
there is one thing wrong with a computer pick
perfect example smu vs nevada. this is what led up to the smu massacre of nevada. luke l. (one of their over 1000 yard rushers) had a toe injury so he was not going to play. the vegas line was 16.5 points. then the other rb who rushed for over 1000 yards was academically ineligible. vegas line 15 points. then a defensive player was declared academically ineligible. the night before the game 2 of their defensive players stole merchandise on the islands. one guy took over 3000 dollars worth of video equipment. he was immediately kicked off the team. add that to the wolfpack being kinda bad on the road and they had not won a bowl game in a decade plus they were facing a june jones smu team that had a qb putting up some good numbers towards the end of the season and j.j has won 4 hawaii bowls you can see why their was such a beatdown in this game. i know this b/c i live in nevada. i took the 16.5 points to begin with and when the zhit hit the fan i just took the +375 moneyline. it’s all about info you can find out in any newspaper or local news. plus, it’s who wants to be there the most. nevada’s defense which was the weakpoint all year did not have the motivation for this game. that’s all.
yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 3, 2010 1:56 AM PST up reply actions
Yep, it'll never be perfect
Oh yeah, there are tons of things a computer can’t pick up. But then at the same time there are things the computer does pick up on. Sometimes I think it makes crazy picks, but then it ends up being right. Like Stanford over USC. It picked that game, I thought it was a crazy pick.
I don’t gamble on games, so I just do it for a hobby/curiosity. I like that I can take a philosophy on the stats and apply it to all the teams without all the bias we get as humans because none of us can watch all the games in a year.
It also doesn’t take into account when an offense starts clicking, and lots of other factors. It thought Florida would beat Alabama. It was only 1 pt off on Florida’s score, but it never seen Alabama’s offense doing that and was 20 points off on that end.
Has it’s value, but it’s certainly not the end all be all. If I were a gambling man, I’d probably use it for a base reference, and then factor in the things you mention etc.
It’s 21 of 30 so far in the bowl games. Not too shabby IMO since it’s based 100% on stats from this year without human influence except the formula of course.
nothing wrong with a hobby
i’m curious about something? how many of the 21 winners were the favorite’s?
i'm all about covering the spread and moneylines.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 3, 2010 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
11 of the 21 were picked to win by vegas.
11, so 10 of the picks were underdogs.
Here’s my picks for winners(that I got right).
Picks that were favorites and right:
Florida
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Auburn
Arkansas
Penn St
USC
Pittsburgh
Picks that were underdogs and right:
Ohio St.
Utah
Iowa St
MTSU
Air Force
Idaho
BYU
Florida St
UConn
Navy
And of course I missed 9 games, so losers I picked to win:
Fresno St
Nevada
Northern Illinois
Ohio
Temple
Miami
Texas A&M
UCF
Oklahoma St.
5 of those picks were for the underdog, but the favorited team won.
Correction,
I don’t actually know if that is the vegas odds. I play in the Yahoo bowl pick em and this is the favorites they list and the line they show. I know they start out as the vegas line, but I’m not sure how often it updates/changes etc.
one problem i see. east carolina was getting 7.5 points
they covered. i live in nevada and know. i see another one. stanford covered nine points too. now there was fluctuation in stanford /okie game so that might be the problem there but the east carolina game only moved 7-7.5. i’ll give you the benefit of the doubt on that one. your computer hate’s the mac conference and for good reason too. lol. it’s much more satisfying doing your own homework too. i’ve hit 20 of 31 bowls with me just watching the games and doing my own research. plus i hit two moneylines and one was big (smu). i never take a negative moneyline unless it is mma.
i'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. i was building a house, i don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. bang. "unforgiven"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 5, 2010 12:39 PM PST up reply actions
Oh, that was straight up, not against the spread.
I’m not sure how it did against the spread. These picks were all just straight up picks to win.
As for East Carolina, I had Arkansas as 4 point favorites. So I would have picked E.Carolina with the 7.5 spread. But E.Carolina did also make my spread.
I had Oklahoma as 10 point favorites. So I would have missed that one against the spread.
it’s 22-32 as of today. It missed on TCU, and hit on Iowa.
During the regular season, it was on average about 65% against the spread, 75-80% straight up. But the fantasy bowl things don’t use the spread.
good idea
To see how your computer ratings are
by Jeremy Mauss on Jan 3, 2010 12:17 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
the way the sec has played in bowl games so far and watching nebraska dismantle arizona
i believe the nebraska defense is better than alabama’s and the sec is much weaker this year. i say texas wins ncg. did you know that texas is 7-0-1 vs bama all-time
yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 2, 2010 6:21 PM PST up reply actions
But look at what Florida did to Cincy
Alabama and Nebraska’s D’s are comparable. They both give up only 11 points per game on average.
Nebraska is better on pass rushes, Alabama is better on rushing defense as far as the lines go. But I think Alabama is a little bit faster than Nebraska in the backfield.
It’s really all about the matchups. I don’t think you’ll see McCoy sacked 5+ times or anything like that. Alabama works a little differently.
i knew florida would beat cincy easy
three reasons. urban meyer’s speech and respeech saying it was now an absence of temporarily leave. cincy coaching vacancy. last but not least the other two double digit dogs outright won their game. the odds tend to reinsert themselves so one big favorite was surely going to cover. i also believe the sec and urban meyer knew that kelly was going to get the n.d. job so they took the easy way out and picked cincy. tcu would have made that game interesting and much tougher.
i'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. i was building a house, i don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. bang. "unforgiven"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 3, 2010 6:13 PM PST up reply actions
As much as I’d love to say that TCU has a shot… No. The AP voters could actually send a message to the BCS that they won’t be going mindlessly along with the system and that the BCS’ claim of a “true national champion” would be shown to be even more full of crap than before.
It won’t happen though. TCU will get some votes, particularly if Texas wins, but they won’t be AP national champions, the AP simply doesn’t have the balls to do it.
I agree there is no shot
But it is s fun topic to discuss since they are undefeated and are at worst even with Texas and Alabama.
Sorry guys
The only split title in the BCS era happened because the AP (and Coaches’ Poll) #1 team somehow was #3 in the BCS rankings and didn’t play in the title game, and beat #4 by twice the margin that BCS #2 beat BCS #1.
Has the Fiesta Bowl already been played?
Sorry, but TCU will be lucky to get a 7 ranking if BSU wins. Everyone keeps talking about how TCU needs to blow us out, try winning first. Ya u guys won last year, but Moore has improved greatly (7 more td passes, 7 less picks) and the run game has gotten better b/c of the pass first game. I do believe TCU is the 3rd best team in the nation, but not the best. And I hope they act like u guys, b/c they will have a long ride back to Fort Worth with that attitude.
Kirby Moore for Heisman
Fiesta Bowl
Will be a close game and Boise has just as good a shot to win, but I think TCU’s defense will be the difference like last years game.
No chance in hell.
Utah had the perfect storm to claim an AP Title and could only manage a number two ranking last year.
I say perfect storm because…
They were the lone undefeated team (TCU won’t be. Either Texas or Alabama will).
They beat a team that was ranked 4th nationally and had spent most the season at the top (TCU’s hypothetical victory over BSU doesn’t begin to compare to Utah’s)
The team they did beat actually played the eventual champs a lot closer than they did Utah – adding fuel to the fire.
There is no such scenarios this time around. Alabama or Texas will finish undefeated along a potential undefeated TCU team. Even if Alabama struggles with Texas, it’s hard to see anyone dropping them from that top-spot and if Texas beats Alabama, it’s hard to see they don’t move up, since they’d own a victory over the top team in the nation.
In other words, TCU will be in the same boat as Utah. They’ll probably finish second if they go undefeated.
i just hope they drop cincy out of the top ten b/c of that beatdown
the the mwc could have 2 teams in the top ten again. byu being exactly number 10. utah should end up either 19th or 20th depending if the idiots in cali think usc win over the vanilla offense of b.c. was better than utah’s beatdown of cal in their backyard. the pac-ten did go only 2-5. they were only better than the sunbelt conf. and maybe conf usa.
i'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. i was building a house, i don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. bang. "unforgiven"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 3, 2010 6:27 PM PST up reply actions
i meant mac conference.
i'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. i was building a house, i don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. bang. "unforgiven"
by wolfmanshowlforever on Jan 3, 2010 6:28 PM PST up reply actions
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