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BCS Armageddon: What Happens if Nebraska Beats Texas?

There is one more last ditch effort for BCS chaos which is having Nebraska beating Texas in the Big XII title game this weekend.  While Texas is a huge favorite this matchup is eerily similar to the 1996 Big XII title game where Nebraska was a huge favorite but ended up losing to Texas with the infamous fourth and inches play sealed the game where Texas QB James "I feel good!" Brown (had to do it) rolled left to find his tight end streaking down the field.

 

 

Star-divide

 

The real question is what happens if Texas does lose this game who goes to the title game TCU or Cincinnati (assuming they take care of Pitt). Below is the difference between TCU and Cincinnati and the two are separated only by .0142 in the BCS standings.

Team
           Rk
Coach %     Rk
Harris % AH CM JS KM PW RB Cp Avg      BCS     Conf

 

TCU

 

4

1285 0.8712     4 2473 0.8754 21 21 22 22 21 22 0.860 0.8689 MWC
Cincinnati 5 1231 0.8346 5 2343 0.8294 22 22 23 23 23 20 0.900 0.8547 East

 

Currently Cincinnati is third in computers and is only behind Alabama and Florida, so by default the Bearcats will move up to number two in the computers rankings. While TCU is sitting at fifth in the computer scores behind the three above plusTexas, and with no games left to play to improve their status.

It is possible that there could be another 2003 USC scenario -- with TCU -- where they were number two in both polls, but left out of the BCS title game because of the computer love going toward LSU.  That scenario is possible unless the voters really want to keep out a non-BCS school from getting to the title game in favor of a BCS league member.  However, since that BCS member is Cincy the voters may not feel obliged to put them in the number two spot.

TCU does has a common opponent in Clemson who is playing in the ACC title game and a win by the Tigers should help their computer rankings, however a Clemson loss will drop the TCU ranking down a notch but how much is the question. To be safe -- or as close to safe as one can be -- a Clemson win might be enough to at least keep TCU's computer numbers on par with Cincinatti's increase after they beat Pitt.

It will all come down to the human voters and which team -- TCU or Cincinatti-- gets the votes that were previously occupied from the SEC loser. Now, if Nebraska wins below is how I think the BCS bowls will shake out and as a reminder here is the selection order Orange, Fiesta, Sugar

BCS Title Game: Flordia vs. TCU

Fiesta Bowl: Nebraska vs.Penn State

Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Texas

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Cincinatti

Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Ohio State

The Nebraska win would leave Boise State on the outisde looking in, again.  Looking at this set of matchups the BCS actually would be happy because each game has a traditional power.  While the title game would have the intrigue of Tim Tebow going for another national title against the first non-BCS team to play in the BCS title with the chance to become the second current non-BCS team to win a national title since BYU in 1984. Now, If Cincinatti takes the number two spot the only difference would be swapping with TCU in the Sugar Bowl.

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I was talking with some people today...

…and we were discussing the ramifications of TCU making the title game.

Would it:

a) really kickstart the implosion of the BCS and pave the way for a playoff or
b) actually strengthen the BCS by proving that non-BCS conference teams can actually qualify for the BCSCG.

by Nico2.0 on Dec 4, 2009 10:51 PM PST reply actions  

i think

Getting 2 non bcs teams has a better chance of taking down the system because that would be taking money away from bcs leagues

by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 5, 2009 6:18 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Not really.

A second team from an at large conference gets as much as a second team from an automatic qualifying conference. They would each get the amount they would have if they had only sent one team and another automatic qualifying league sent a second team.

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Dec 5, 2009 8:04 AM PST up reply actions  

What I mean

is that if Ok State made the BCS they would get that $4.5 million, but now it is going to the non-BCS instead which is taking money away from BCS leagues.

by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 5, 2009 8:20 AM PST up reply actions  

Just saying, I covered both of these questions already.

Can Cincinnati pass TCU?

If Texas loses and Cincinnati wins TCU will be the same 0.04 points behind Cincinnati in the computers they are now.

This means Cincinnati will need to win impressively enough to convince the 22% of the voters that they are better than TCU.

What are the true BCS busting scenarios?

Both of the scenarios discussed above would strengthen the BCS rhetorically.

A split title is the only true BCS busting scenario possible now. The best chance for this is for the SEC and BCS championship games to be close and for TCU to destroy the SEC runner up in the Sugar Bowl.

TCU has roughly the amount of support now that Utah had last year AFTER the Sugar Bowl.

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Dec 5, 2009 8:11 AM PST reply actions  

Clemson?

Do you think a Clemson loss could negatively effect TCUs computer ranking if they lose? Conversely would a win by Clemson be able to keep them ahead of TCU if Texas were to lose.

by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 5, 2009 8:22 AM PST up reply actions  

Cincy won

Since Cincy beat Pitt today, I have little doubt that Cincy will overtake TCU in the BCS rankings due to SoS.

by cal n on Dec 5, 2009 1:04 PM PST reply actions  


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