Statistical Comparison of the Fiesta Bowl: #4 TCU Horned Frogs vs. #6 Boise State Broncos

by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 29, 2009 7:11 PM PST in Mountain West Football

The big Fiesta Bowl is less then a week away, so now is a good time to compare how the two teams stack up regarding the most important statistics in the game.

Both teams are strong in both offense and defense with a slight edge to TCU in the defense prowess. That TCU defense is the reason they won last year when these teams played in the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl.

Do not be fooled by the overall lead TCU has some of the margins are very thin and these two teams are very equal.

Category			Edge
Scoring Offense	44.2 PPG	40.7 PPG
Rushing Offense	194.54 YPG	272.46 YPG
Passing Offense	266.00 YPG	212.16 YPG
Total Offense	460.50 YPG	467.8YPG
Penalties	55.5 YPG	54.2 YPG
Scoring Defense	17.7 PPG	12.2 PPG
Rushing Defense	126.85 YPG	80.50 YPG
Passing Defense	172.80 YPG	152.8 YPG
Total Defense	299.6 YPG	233.3 YPG
Turnovers Lost (Season)	13	20
Turnovers Margin	1.46 per game	.33 per game
Third Down Conversions	38.46%	43.15%
Third Down Defense	32.22%	26.14%
Red Zone Offense	85.53%	84.75%
Red Zone Defense	78.57%	76.19%

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I’m aware that the margins are thin in almost all cases, but I’m still glad to see TCU has the superior stats, particularly on account of playing against superior competition.

by HawkeyedFrog on Dec 30, 2009 4:22 AM PST reply actions

I think that the competition is key

Especially on offense where the MWC defenses are much better than WAC defenses. Boise State doe not have a solid edge in any offensive stat and in rushing TCU dominates on both sides of the ball.

Boise State will need their edge in turnover margin to kick in to keep up with TCU.

Another factor not listed above is that TCU sees this as their title game. Boise State sees this game as another BCS snub. This works in TCU’s favor.

BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter

by utesfan100 on Dec 30, 2009 8:48 AM PST up reply actions

Actually it's just the opposite

I live in Boise and the majority see TCU as arguably the best team in the country. BSU easily could have been dismissed and be playing in the Poinsettia bowl again, so they are very happy to be there. Also, they get a chance to redeem last years loss. TCU is ranked higher and was very close to possibly playing in the NCG, so if anyone is disappointed I would think it would be TCU. Although, it is TCU’s first BCS bowl game and I think they are happy to be there. They both should be playing other teams though. Bunch of crip!

by QUICKS on Dec 30, 2009 8:58 AM PST up reply actions

Still disappointing to me.

As a BSU fan I am also a fan of any non-bcs team. I think TCU is quite possibly the best team in the country. Note that I did say possibly because without playing it’s all speculation. Personally I think TCU would CRUSH Texas or Alabama and I also think BSU could beat Iowa or Georgia Tech. BSU is going to lose credibility in this matchup because if they lose they will be looked at as losing to just another non-bcs team instead of losing to possibly the best team in the country and if TCU wins they won’t be looked at as the best team in the country. I am optimistic though and occasionally convince myself that BSU can pull off a win until I go back and watch a couple of TCU games and the optimism fades. I like that BSU is getting a chance to play TCU and gauge just how good they are. BSU often plays to the level of their competition, so it should be interesting. However, the rest of the BCS country will only look at this as a matchup of the lesser teams. I think everyone will agree that coaching plays a HUGE part in the success of any sport and every coach has to start somewhere, possibly a small non-bcs school. To me, good competition is what makes a challenge fun. I don’t see the fun in not letting everyone compete?! The BCS is a sham and a fraud!!

by QUICKS on Dec 30, 2009 8:49 AM PST reply actions

turnovers

It is simple to say that if Boise wins the turnover battle then they will win. Fumbling is TCU’s down fall if any, so if Boise can create fumbles and pressure Dalton that is their way to win this game.

Mountain West Connection

by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 30, 2009 9:07 PM PST reply actions

One key factor that doesn’t appear on this chart is special teams though. I would be very interested to see how the Boise State Special Teams stack up this year against TCU who, for once, appear to have one of the finer sets of Special Teams in the nation.

by HawkeyedFrog on Jan 1, 2010 1:59 AM PST reply actions