The Domino Effect of Big 10 Expansion, Will it Affect the Mountain West?
by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 21, 2009 11:51 AM PST
in News
6 comments
Teams of interest are and in no order: Pitt, West Virginia, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Rutgers, Nebraska, Kentucky, Louisville, Cincinnati, Iowa State, and Maryland. The Domers are the obvious and most coveted choice, but most likely will not join because their NBC contract goes for another six years. Even if Notre Dame says yes and the search takes 18 months which is the summer of 2011 when the invite will come Notre Dame will not begin play until the 2012 season. At that time if the current deal with NBC is not extended there would still be three more years left on that deal, and unless the Big 10 wants to let them finish out the deal and let the Irish keep the money no way the Irish will join.
Team Speed Kills brings out a very good point if the Big 10 goes after someone else just to get to twelve:
2. Saying yes to someone else means saying no to Notre Dame forever
Conferences larger than 12 members don't work well with football. The WAC tried having 16 and couldn't make it work. The MAC has serious scheduling problems with its 13 team format. A 12 member league works. More than that really doesn't.
If the Big Ten adds another member, it will have 12 schools. Since more than 12 is untenable, if that twelfth school is not Notre Dame, then the Big Ten will never have Notre Dame. Adding Missouri or Pitt functionally closes that door forever.
That is a real good point, because if the Big 10 wants to hurry this along and take someone else just to get a championship game; they can then seal the Irish's fate forever as an Independent.
Back to how this could affect the Mountain West. The MWC is desperately trying to gain BCS status and Boise State has been the rumored team for years, and most recently there was a rumor that would bring in Nevada, Fresno State, as well as Boise State this summer to gain BCS status. That was just a rumor, but realistically at least Boise will get the invite this summer.
The Big 10 expansion could mean every thing or it could mean nothing to the Mountain West, however the Pac-10 made the same statement as the Big 10 but back in July about a 12-18 month time line and wanting a title game. Utah from the Mountain West and Colorado from the Big XII were at the top of new commissioner Larry Scott's wish list to form the Pac-12.
The scenario that will have the minimal impact is that the Big 10 invites Notre Dame and then there is no domino effect what so ever, but we all know that has a slim chance of happening.
The two most likely candidates to join the Big 10 are Pitt and Missouri. Starting with Pitt they are one of the 'old money' teams on the east coast and are comparable in all aspects that the Big 10 wants. They are a state school with a large enrollment, a good educational institution, and are good at both money sports.
The Big 10 Network would not get a huge bump in viewers since it all ready covers the Pennsylvania with Penn State all ready in the league, so Pitt does not add much on that front. Now, if Pitt were to join then the Big East would be in for a real hurt because that would leave them with only seven teams and not eligible to be an FBS league, or more importantly a BCS league and all the bling that goes with being a cartel member.
The Big East would either need to crawl back to Temple and beg them to come back to the league they were kicked out of or go rampage the MAC or C-USA for an eighth member. Or somehow promote a basketball playing school that has an FCS program like UMass, Villinova, or Georgetown; but with that they may lose their BCS status since their league would be even more watered down. So, Pitt moving to the Big 10 would not really have any impact on Mountain West.
The biggie is Missouri because they are currently in the Big XII and fit nicely with all the Big 10 wants in its member institutions. Here is how it will or could affect the Mountain West: Missouri leaving opens up a spot in the Big XII and more importantly the Big XII North. TCU and Arkansas would love to get back in the old South West Conference rivalries, but they are not a geographical fit to be in the north division. Plus, moving Oklahoma or Oklahoma State to the north would disrupt their rivalries as well as the Red River Shootout if Oklahoma were to move. Those two are out of the question because of locale, now saying that the ACC has no real geographical lines they have Florida State and Miami, FL in separate divisions.
The next choice falls back to a former potential member when the Big XII was being formed and that is BYU. If it were not for government influence by the former Texas Governor Ann Richards who oh just happens to be a Baylor alum pushed and won the fight to get Baylor in the Big XII. BYU would be on the list and make the thousands of Cougar fans very, very happy to be in a BCS league, and be in a very winnable North division from day one.
However, if you go by the time line of expansion the Big 10 has which is the 12-18 month time frame the Big XII may be left scrambling for a different team. Now, why would BYU turn down a chance to be in the Big XII? The reason that could happen is if as I have expected for a while that Boise State will be invited this summer and begin play in 2011. That would give the Mountain West a very strong case to be a BCS league for the 2012 season because the league all ready has had three teams in the BCS top 25 final standings, and adding Boise would bring that number to four over the past two years. The Mountain West does not show any signs of slowing down, and with the Boise rankings counting while in the WAC the MWC looks almost a shoe in to begin play as a BCS league in 2012.
An invite coming from the Big XII to BYU -- if the Big 10 does expand with Missouri-- will most likely come in the summer of 2011 which is the last year of the four year BCS cycle. The reason a summer invite is mentioned is that any league that moves conferences must give a one year's notice. Now, that 2011 season would be the first with Boise State and give college football a chance to see if the Mountain West is a BCS league.
Here is the caveat with that the Mountain West may not know until after the 2011 football season, or possibly later if they are to be a BCS league. That would occur after an invitation would have been handed out to BYU, so I could see BYU jumping ship to the Big XII because of the uncertainty of the Mountain West becoming a BCS league. Quite frankly BYU would be stupid not to jump to a better league with a guaranteed BCS bid and realistically could win the Big XII North in year one.
The only way BYU would not join is if the BCS where to make some announcement about the Mountain West becoming a BCS league prior to an invite from the Big XII. That seems doubtful since the 2011 season will needed to be played. Now, a move by BYU to the Big XII would not affect the Mountain West and their BCS aspirations since all four of their playing years in the MWC would be in the four year cycle so BYU would not lose them.
The Pac-10 is also looking to expand about the same time as the Big 10 and they have mentioned Utah and Colorado as their top choices. Now, there is no need to run through the Utah scenario because it is exactly the same as BYU as far as the time line for invites go.
This Big 10 trickle down effect towards the Mountain West all boils down to if Missouri goes to the Big 10 to form hopefully either a) numerical correct league name, or b) a regional name makes sense, but since the Big 10 is obsessed with tradition do not be surprised if the name stays the same.
The best choice for Utah and BYU would be to stay in the Mountain West as a BCS league, because they are all ready on the top of the league and a move to a current BCS league would mean a few years of building up to the level -- that goes more toward Utah then BYU since the Big XII north is not as difficult as the Pac-10. Utah would be upper middle pack and be fitting Oregon, USC, and Cal to get a conference title.
Since the timing could make things go hay wire and if either league makes their expansion threat a reality the Mountain West could be in a world of hurt. An invite to a bigger league will come the summer prior to the last year of the BCS evaluation cycle so the Mountain West will not know for sure if they are included to the table or not. Why should Utah or BYU not go to a larger league if invited, I know I would.
Here is the real kicker that could be very odd and bizarre. The Mountain West could be a BCS league without BYU or Utah if they do happen to get plucked away. It is possible since both schools would have been in the Mountain West for the four year evaluation cycle, and if Boise gets in the last year of the cycle their WAC rankings are now shifted to the Mountain West.
Now, that would be weird.
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All conferneces will be reevaluated in 2014
If the current system is not changed. If the MWC took Boise State and had the current members plus Boise State in 2011 they would likely be in the BCS for 2012 and 2013, regardless of whether Utah, BYU and TCU got invites to the PAC 10/Big 10 or not.
I will be discussing conference alignments, conference by conference as soon as the bowl season ends at BCS Evolution.
Just like 2010 for 2011 is the best time for the MWC to make their move, 2012 for 2013 is the best time for the current BCS conferences to make theirs.
We could indeed see a very stripped down MWC with an automatic qualification in 2013, but they would then lose it the next year.
BCS Evolution -- Punctuating the Equilibrium - twitter
you could be right
If Utah and BYU both leave their BCS stats would count and an MWC of TCU and Boise would get an auto bid for the 2 seasons
by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 22, 2009 6:39 AM PST up reply actions
Sad as it is for me to say, TCU isn’t going into the Big XII. Not now, not if the Big 10 steals a team from the Big 12, not ever. TCU keeps getting mentioned in all sorts of blogs as a replacement for Mizzou should they bolt, but it won’t happen and I’m happy to tell you why.
1.) TCU is really, really small. They’re never going to have the alumni support of a school like Texas, A&M or even Tech or Baylor. Baylor has thousands more undergrads than TCU has students in every level of the university, and Baylor is TCU’s closest competitor.
2.) TCU doesn’t give the Big 12 anything. While TCU gives the Mountain West (or any other discussed conference) a coveted foothold into Texas, that’s not exactly a weakness of the Big 12. Every school in the conference recruits Texas hard, so the appeal of yet another Texas school is practically non-existent (Especially with most teams in the North already rather upset about how Texas-centric the conference appears to be).
3.) Traditional rivalries. There’s a lot of talk about the “rekindling SWC rivalries” in the mouths of people who talk about bringing TCU into the Big 12. The only problem with that is that most of TCU’s SWC rivalries aren’t in the Big 12. As much as TCU fans (myself included) absolutely loathe and abhor A&M and Tech, they don’t see us as a rival, and historically, why should they? Tech and A&M kicked the crap out of TCU for decades, and as gutless as both of those programs appear to be by either dropping scheduled games (Tech) or never even agreeing to a game (A&M) they have nothing to gain by beating TCU. Not even the feeling of beating a rival. TCU’s only real historical rival in the Big 12 is Baylor, with both schools once residing in Waco, while TCU’s other SWC rivals are now located in Conference USA (Bring back the series with Rice!)
Yes, the fact that Baylor is in the Big 12 while TCU has been left wandering in the desert after the dissolution of the SWC eats at me, as it does at all TCU fans. However, considering that this injustice will be undone by the Big 10’s possible poaching is insane. Arkansas would jump at the chance to get a better base in Texas and would supply a real traditional rival to both Texas and A&M (From personal experiences I’ve found that Arkansas fans also tend to loathe 0U as well). Few remember, but LSU was once a fairly fierce rival of Texas and A&M as well, and might be willing to answer the phone if they were assured of a Texas like share of the revenue. There are probably a dozen teams higher on the Big 12’s list than TCU, should the need to add another team come up, but if all of those schools did say “no” then… Well TCU would be a guaranteed “Yes”.
tottally agree
The only one that kind of makes sense is the old SWC rivalries. But they bring nothing new, have a small fan base, and the geography would screw things up. I could see TCU going to the SEC before going to the Big XII.
by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 22, 2009 6:41 AM PST up reply actions
TCU to the SEC...hum
I hadn’t thought of that, but I could see that, as well as Houston.
Ok, I’m an OU grad first (and a CSU grad 2nd)..so from a Big 12, I expect the Big 10 to take either Missouri OR Iowa St. (but Iowa State doesn’t help the Big 10, but neither does Pitt) I also expect the Pac-10 to take CU and Utah. That leaves the Big 12 looking for 2 teams. The number #1 choice would be Arkansas, and they fit in nicely all around, and a fit that makes too much sense. BUT, my understanding is they have a pretty tight contract with the SEC from when Arkansas joined them from the SWC.
But who they take for number #2, I don’t know. I agree TCU doesn’t add much to the Big 12 that they don’t already have. Besides Arkansas they might look at LSU, or one of the directional schools in Louisiana, as a lot of the future shuffling will be based on getting into new TV markets. Which is why BYU makes sense, as does New Mexico. One thing I’ve heard is for every big and tough football program the Big 12 brings in, they want an easier one as well to keep the top dogs getting wins, and not everyone beating up each other and not going 4-4 in conference each year.
My Fearless prediction: The Pac-10 takes Utah and Colorado. The Big 10 takes Missouri. The Big 12 adds Arkansas, and a smaller school, like Arkansas St, Tulsa or Louisiana Tech (I don’t think LSU moves, and I think New Mexico is not a good fit geographically nor is BYU with Colorado leaving). The SEC adds Houston and get a foothold in Texas and one of the largest cities in America. The MWC adds Boise State, Fresno St, Nevada and UTEP or SMU
The Conspiracy nut in me thinks, the MWC challenged the NCAA and the BCS this past year. Now, the BCS conferences are looking to expand, and what names do I see on the list? BYU, Utah, and TCU….take those out of the MWC…and it’s not a BCS conference anymore…..take that for challenging the power and might of the NCAA!
Interestingly, TCU in the SEC is a lot more likely than TCU in the Big 12. If Arkansas were to run off and the SEC couldn’t entice Texas or A&M to jump ship, TCU would appear to be as likely a candidate as any to refill the Western division. As for Houston, despite being a bigger school, they have a rather spotty record of success (even more so than TCU) and no real fan support in Houston even when the team is doing well.
by HawkeyedFrog on Dec 23, 2009 12:13 AM PST up reply actions
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