Stastical Comparison of the 2009 Poinsettia Bowl: Utah vs Cal

by Michael Rueckert on Dec 13, 2009 4:27 PM PST in Mountain West Football

The 2009 Poinsettia Bowl will feature Cal vs No. 23 Utah. The Utes will be looking to hit the 10 win mark, and extend the nations longest bowl winning streak to 9 games.

Cal started the season highly ranked with hopes of winning the Pac-10. After a somewhat disappointing season they are looking to end on a good note, rather than a 2 game losing streak. Cal's best player, Jahvid Best, is still recovering from his tragic fall against Oregon State. Whether he will play or not is still being determined.

Here is a statistical comparison of Utah and Cal:

Each team leads in 50% of the statistics used. Basically, Cal is a better offensive team and Utah is the better defensive team. Cal's numbers may be less if they are without Jahvid Best.

Although Cal does have the offensive advantage, Utah is not far behind only trailing them by 10 yards in yards per game. Defensively Utah has a much bigger lead over Cal. Utah allows 63 less yards per game than Cal.

Utah is going to have to do better with penalties in this game. The Utes are ranked last in the country in penalties against ranked teams, and teams with a winning record. Against TCU, BYU and Oregon, the Utes gave up an average of 107.7 yards per game in penalties.

California did play a stronger schedule than Utah, so you can expect their numbers to be less. Utah's strength of schedule ranking was 86 and Cal's was 58.

Next Game

California Golden Bears

@ Utah Utes

Wednesday, Dec 23, 2009, 5:00 PM PST

San Diego County Poinsettia Bowl - Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA

Complete Coverage >

Poll

Who will win?

Cal

14 votes

Utah

52 votes

66 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I'll probably end up going.

Any Utah fans going? Jeremy, get me a press pass!!!

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
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by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 13, 2009 4:37 PM PST reply actions

umm...

Not sure if I could do that but, you can always apply. Just make sure to behave yourself. Here is a link to apply.

I was able to easily get one for the Armed Forces Bowl when I worked for the University of Utah radio station. So, who knows who picky this bowl is on credentials. I am actually not going to Fiesta, tix were to much for my brother to pay for 2 and a flight from Houston, and I do not want to drive myself to Phoenix from Salt Lake. Sucks because would be a good bowl game.

Mountain West Connection

by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 13, 2009 5:07 PM PST reply actions

You could probably get a cheap ticket to San Diego

Roundtrip non-stop from NYC and San Diego with me was really really cheap.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 13, 2009 5:33 PM PST up reply actions

thats not the problem

I need time off of work which I have the week in January but not the week of Christmas.

Mountain West Connection

by Jeremy Mauss on Dec 13, 2009 6:05 PM PST up reply actions

As far as the "edge" portion goes. . .

. . . I wouldn’t say many of Cal’s “edges” are real. 6 yards rushing per game is a statistical dead heat, as is 6 yards passing per game, etc.

I would put the following as real Cal edges:

Penalties (20 ypg is a lot for penalties)
Rush defense (25 ypg is a decent difference for rushing defense, although this is probably skewed by the fact that Cal’s pass D is so horrible).
Turnovers. Utah is +3, Cal is +6. Significant, but not overwhelming. Interesting that Utah forces more turnovers, but also turns the ball over more.

The other Cal “edges” (Rushing Yards, Passing Yards, Overall Offense, Red Zone Offense) are all statistical ties. The only Utah edge that’s really a tie is 3rd-down percentage (1.5% difference).

Everyone hates a pink-shirt-wearing communist.

by displacedute on Dec 14, 2009 1:58 PM PST reply actions