TCU was lucky enough to not take a hit for beating New Mexico as prior teams have. However it seems that if TCU wants to make it to the title game they need Texas and Cincinnati to lose. The computers have Cincy third and TCU five and with the Bearcats playing 15th BCS rated Pitt and may pass TCU on that win alone. Cincy would gain ground on the number two spot if Texas loses because some of the human voters may turn to Cincy instead of TCU since the Bearcats had their recent win over 15th rated Pitt.
Besides the national title game a new at-large team entered the fold: Virginia Tech. Oklahoma State choked away a chance at the Fiesta Bowl by getting shut out in the Bedlam series against Oklahoma. That loss opened the door for Va. Tech to sneak an at-large berth. As of today the legitimate at-large spots are with Boise State, Virginia Tech, Penn State. The two dark horse at-large candidates are BYU and Oregon State; however the Beavers will be eligible if they beat Oregon on Thursday night in the annual Civil War. The latter two are not going to be picked, but will be in the available pool.
Iowa or Penn State will get a bid (probably Penn State), then it will come down to Boise State or Virginia Tech. The Sugar Bowl would like to have Virginia Tech since they travel well, but the Sugar Bowl will take the SEC loser with their replacement pick. Then the Sugar Bowl gets the final selection and depending on what the Fiesta Bowl picks the Sugar may be forced to take automatic qualifier TCU.
Most likely the Fiesta will take Penn State as their replacement for losing Texas, then as stated above the Sugar will take the SEC runner up, and then things get tricky because the Orange gets first pick and could take Cincinnati for the second straight year or TCU. That pick will shape the rest of the bowls, because in my opinion is if TCU is picked for the Orange then the Fiesta will take Boise State leaving Cincy playing in the Sugar Bowl However, if Cincy is picked then the Fiesta will take TCU to take on the Big 10 represntative and then I could really see the Sugar taking Virginia Tech over Boise State. Now that may not be fair, but when has the BCS been fair, because all they care about is making the most money and they have this clause in the selcetion procedure that could push Boise State out of a bid:
Whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on Fox and the bowls.
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