Latest BCS Standings are Out! The At-Large Field Shrinks

TCU was lucky enough to not take a hit for beating New Mexico as prior teams have.  However it seems that if TCU wants to make it to the title game they need Texas and Cincinnati to lose.  The computers have Cincy third and TCU five and with the Bearcats playing 15th BCS rated Pitt and may pass TCU on that win alone.  Cincy would gain ground on the number two spot if Texas loses because some of the human voters may turn to Cincy instead of TCU since the Bearcats had their recent win over 15th rated Pitt.

Besides the national title game a new at-large team entered the fold: Virginia Tech.  Oklahoma State choked away a chance at the Fiesta Bowl by getting shut out in the Bedlam series against Oklahoma.  That loss opened the door for Va. Tech to sneak an at-large berth.  As of today the legitimate at-large spots are with Boise State, Virginia Tech, Penn State.  The two dark horse at-large candidates are BYU and Oregon State; however the Beavers will be eligible if they beat Oregon on Thursday night in the annual Civil War.  The latter two are not going to be picked, but will be in the available pool. 

Iowa or Penn State will get a bid (probably Penn State), then it will come down to Boise State or Virginia Tech.  The Sugar Bowl would like to have Virginia Tech since they travel well, but the Sugar Bowl will take the SEC loser with their replacement pick.  Then the Sugar Bowl gets the final selection and depending on what the Fiesta Bowl picks the Sugar may be forced to take automatic qualifier TCU. 

Most likely the Fiesta will take Penn State as their replacement for losing Texas, then as stated above the Sugar will take the SEC runner up, and then things get tricky because the Orange gets first pick and could take Cincinnati for the second straight year or TCU.  That pick will shape the rest of the bowls, because in my opinion is if TCU is picked for the Orange then the Fiesta will take Boise State leaving Cincy playing in the Sugar Bowl  However, if Cincy is picked then the Fiesta will take TCU to take on the Big 10 represntative and then I could really see the Sugar taking Virginia Tech over Boise State.  Now that may not be fair, but when has the BCS been fair, because all they care about is making the most money and they have this clause in the selcetion procedure that could push Boise State out of a bid:

Whether alternative pairings may have greater or lesser appeal to college football fans as measured by expected ticket sales for the bowls and by expected television interest, and the consequent financial impact on Fox and the bowls.

BCS Harris Poll USA Today Computer Rankings
RK TEAM AVG PVS RK PTS % RK PTS % AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 Florida .9868 1 1 2783 .9851 1 1468 .9953 1 25 24 24 24 25 25 .980
2 Alabama .9513 2 3 2651 .9384 3 1380 .9356 1 24 25 25 25 24 24 .980
3 Texas .9282 3 2 2682 .9494 2 1394 .9451 4 23 23 23 21 21 22 .890
4 TCU .8689 4 4 2473 .8754 4 1285 .8712 5 21 22 21 22 22 21 .860
5 Cincinnati .8547 5 5 2343 .8294 5 1231 .8346 3 22 20 22 23 23 23 .900
6 Boise State .8096 6 6 2309 .8173 6 1197 .8115 6 20 21 20 20 20 20 .800
7 Oregon .7343 8 8 2044 .7235 8 1061 .7193 7 19 19 19 19 19 19 .760
8 Ohio State .6882 10 7 2108 .7462 7 1104 .7485 11 17 18 18 11 4 11 .570
9 Iowa .6028 11 10 1711 .6057 10 889 .6027 10 18 17 16 10 11 16 .600
10 Georgia Tech .5803 7 11 1543 .5462 12 774 .5247 8 16 15 17 17 17 17 .670
11 Penn State .5499 13 9 1804 .6386 9 975 .6610 19 13 16 14 2 0 6 .350
12 Virginia Tech .5376 14 12 1524 .5395 11 831 .5634 13 11 2 15 15 12 13 .510
13 LSU .5139 15 14 1256 .4446 14 674 .4569 9 15 13 12 18 18 18 .640
14 Brigham Young .4394 19 13 1263 .4471 13 680 .4610 16 10 14 10 9 3 12 .410
15 Pittsburgh .4101 9 15 1250 .4425 15 631 .4278 18 12 4 13 6 10 8 .360
16 Oregon State .4070 16 16 1100 .3894 16 607 .4115 15 7 11 7 16 14 10 .420
17 Miami (FL) .3843 17 17 983 .3480 17 509 .3451 14 9 5 11 12 15 14 .460
18 USC .3565 20 19 833 .2949 19 361 .2447 12 14 10 9 14 16 15 .530
19 California .2392 22 21 580 .2053 22 210 .1424 17 6 9 5 13 13 9 .370
20 Oklahoma State .2251 12 20 666 .2358 21 309 .2095 20 8 8 8 0 0 7 .230
21 Houston .2204 23 18 849 .3005 18 473 .3207 26 0 0 4 0 0 5 .040
22 Nebraska .1491 NR 22 509 .1802 20 335 .2271 26 1 6 3 0 0 0 .040
23 West Virginia .1400 NR 25 253 .0896 23 163 .1105 21 5 7 6 4 7 4 .220
24 Stanford .1198 NR 23 381 .1349 24 154 .1044 22 3 3 1 7 5 1 .120
25 Utah .0707 21 24 285 .1009 25 120 .0814 28 0 12 0 0 0 3 .030
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