Latest BCS Standings Released: Computers Hate TCU
Computers do not hate TCU, but how do they drop in the aggregated computer rankings in favor of Texas from four to five after TCU dominated previously 16th BCS rated Utah while Texas beat Baylor who has a losing record.
Also, Cincinnati is still third in the standings and stayed the same from last week to this week. Even though they eeked out a 24-21 win over West Virginia; well at least they were ranked unlike Baylor.
Go Figure?
All of this is a moot point, because for TCU to get to the BCS title game they need help with a Texas, Alabama, or Florida loss. However, Alabama and Florida must lose pre-SEC title matchup, and who knows they may slip up since they both have that spot clinched.
Also, New Mexico will be a poll killer just like it did to Utah two weeks ago did the same to BYU as they drop from 25th to 17th in the computer rankings. Clemson could be TCU's secret computer ranking weapon if they make it to the ACC title game and beat top ten Georgia Tech.
TCU is assured a BCS berth by winning out against Wyoming and New Mexico, and those all seem a forgone conclusion. However if TCU wants to fill in their triangle goal whic
h includes the BCS title then they will need help.
Each team ahead of TCU has a plausible loss ahead:
Florida: Florida State
Alabama: Auburn
Texas: Texas A&M and Big XII North Champion most likely Nebraska
None of those teams are ranked, however they are all rivals -- sans Big XII North opponent-- plus Texas A&M has won two of three from Texas. Not sure if any will happen, but crazy stuff can happen in rivalry games.
| BCS | Harris Poll | USA Today | Computer Rankings | ||||||||||||||
| RK | TEAM | AVG | PVS | RK | PTS | % | RK | PTS | % | AVG | A&H | RB | CM | KM | JS | PW | % |
| 1 | Florida | .9833 | 1 | 1 | 2793 | .9800 | 1 | 1460 | .9898 | 1 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 | .980 |
| 2 | Alabama | .9521 | 2 | 3 | 2694 | .9453 | 3 | 1388 | .9410 | 2 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 23 | .970 |
| 3 | Texas | .9261 | 3 | 2 | 2711 | .9512 | 2 | 1397 | .9471 | 4 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | .880 |
| 4 | TCU | .8685 | 4 | 4 | 2479 | .8698 | 4 | 1277 | .8658 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 22 | .870 |
| 5 | Cincinnati | .8536 | 5 | 5 | 2349 | .8242 | 5 | 1219 | .8264 | 3 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 24 | .910 |
| 6 | Boise State | .7950 | 6 | 6 | 2317 | .8130 | 6 | 1183 | .8020 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 19 | .770 |
| 7 | Georgia Tech | .7716 | 7 | 7 | 2168 | .7607 | 7 | 1127 | .7641 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | .790 |
| 8 | LSU | .6648 | 8 | 10 | 1813 | .6361 | 10 | 956 | .6481 | 8 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 18 | .710 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh | .6569 | 12 | 9 | 1895 | .6649 | 9 | 997 | .6759 | 10 | 16 | 11 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | .630 |
| 10 | Ohio State | .6495 | 11 | 8 | 1960 | .6877 | 8 | 1019 | .6908 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 13 | .570 |
| 11 | Oregon | .6265 | 13 | 11 | 1699 | .5961 | 11 | 875 | .5932 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | .690 |
| 12 | Oklahoma State | .4708 | 19 | 13 | 1408 | .4940 | 13 | 750 | .5085 | 15 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 10 | .410 |
| 13 | Iowa | .4529 | 10 | 14 | 1176 | .4126 | 15 | 584 | .3959 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 15 | .550 |
| 14 | Penn State | .4127 | 18 | 12 | 1467 | .5147 | 12 | 772 | .5234 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | .4036 | 21 | 16 | 976 | .3425 | 16 | 558 | .3783 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | .490 |
| 16 | Wisconsin | .3583 | 20 | 15 | 1134 | .3979 | 14 | 630 | .4271 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 6 | .250 |
| 17 | Stanford | .3406 | NR | 17 | 946 | .3319 | 17 | 516 | .3498 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 7 | .340 |
| 18 | USC | .2714 | 9 | 20 | 576 | .2021 | 21 | 239 | .1620 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 14 | .450 |
| 19 | Oregon State | .2487 | 23 | 22 | 492 | .1726 | 20 | 256 | .1736 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 11 | .400 |
| 20 | Miami (FL) | .1936 | 14 | 24 | 442 | .1151 | 24 | 156 | .1058 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | .320 |
| 21 | Utah | .1910 | 16 | 21 | 568 | .1993 | 23 | 212 | .1437 | 20 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 9 | .230 |
| 22 | Brigham Young | .1874 | 22 | 18 | 793 | .2782 | 18 | 404 | .2739 | 27 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .010 |
| 23 | Clemson | .1829 | NR | 19 | 578 | .2028 | 19 | 274 | .1858 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | .160 |
| 24 | Houston | .1150 | 15 | 23 | 484 | .1698 | 22 | 229 | .1553 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .020 |
| 25 | California | .0935 | NR | 29 | 123 | .0432 | 30 | 55 | .0373 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 3 | .200 |
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I was suprised to see the computers drop TCU too.
With games left against New Mexico and Wyoming they will probably continue to plummet. Here is what TCU and Texas’ opponents did yesterday.
TCU
Virgina – Lost 14-10 to Boston College
Texas State – Lost 30-27 to McNeese State
Clemson – Won 43-23 over North Carolina State
SMU – Won 35-31 over UTEP
Air Force – Won 45-17 over UNLV
Colorado State – BYE
BYU – Won 24-19 over New Mexico
UNLV – Lost 45-17 to Air Force
San Diego State – Lost 30-27 to Wyoming
Utah – Lost to TCU
Overall their opponents went (4-5) yesterday with no impressive wins.
Texas
Louisiana-Monroe – Won 21-18 over WKU
Wyoming – Won 30-27 over San Diego State
Texas Tech – Lost 24-17 over Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State- Won 24-17 over Texas Tech
Colorado – Lost 17-10 to Iowa State
UTEP – Lost 35-31 to SMU
Oklahoma – Won 65-10 over Texas A&M
Missouri – Won 38-12 over Kansas State
UCF – Won 37-32 over Houston
Baylor – Lost to Texas
Overall their opponents went (5-5) also, but UCF had a big win over Houston
That evidence isn’t too strong, but slightly does favor Texas. I wonder if TCU would be ahead of Texas in the computers if Houston would have beat UCF?
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by Michael Rueckert on Nov 15, 2009 8:24 PM PST reply actions
one thing in tcu's favor is that clemson and smu can win their respective conferences
houston’s loss put smu in driver seat of conf. usa cg. clemson just needs to beat virginia or maryland to get there. let’s hope clemson and smu win their conferences. tcu has beaten 3 ranked teams. texas one but by the end of season it will probably be two. still that is 3-2 in favor of tcu.
yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 16, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions
good points
I would think a head to head win would count more, but who knows how those computers work
by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 16, 2009 5:01 AM PST via mobile reply actions
i think both wyoming and k-state each have 5 wins?
it would help it wyoming beats colorado state for 5 mwc teams to get to six wins. k-state has neberaska next and i saw k-state get destroyed by a medicore mizzou team at home. i say nebraska wins easily. another thing, i find it interesting that when utah crushed n.m they fell in bcs poll and when byu beat them by five points they moved up. hopefully the tcu game vs n.m. goes the way of the byu movement and not utah’s
yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.
by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 16, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
I have a computer poll, so let me explain how a team can drop after such a game.
I personally have TCU #4 in my computer poll, but I think I can shed some light on how a team can beat someone like Utah, and not gain.
When the computer does the rankings, it looks at the strength of the opponents for the entire year. Most also take into account games not played as part of the overall SoS.
So you have Utah who was a 1 loss team. But after the game, they become a 2 loss team. Meaning, some of the value of the Utah game is lost in things. Thus, TCU losses a little bit in the computers as a result.
Take a team like baylor. Not to much is expected of them, and so they were already low rated. Thus, they lose and it’s not a big deal.
Also, you TCU fans have got to quit talking about the “top 25 wins” as if they mean something. They really don’t. Those are great games for TCU, no doubt. But the rest of the schedule also matters. You have to look at the overall average of the entire schedule. What hurts TCU is all those games you have against extremely low ranked teams(talking probably not in the top 100). Meanwhile, Texas may only have 1 “top 25 win”, but the rest of the teams they play are likely top 50 candidates in most cases.
If you guys could just get 1 more game added to the end of the season against a top10 team, it would help you so much, enough that you might even get considered for the national championship game even without 1 loss of the top teams. I hope your coach takes note of that in the future when you schedule games. TCU looks tough, and it’s a shame you guys don’t really have a chance at the championship. But you just gotta play an overall tougher schedule.
I’m an Alabama fan, but I’m a sucker for the small underdogs going big.
computers
I know its opponents and opponents opponents SOS, but Clemson won as did SMU. Those should help some, but I guess the Big XII schedule that Baylor is part of what counter acted TCUs opponents schedule.
by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 16, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions

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