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Latest BCS Standings Released: Computers Hate TCU

Computers do not hate TCU, but how do they drop in the aggregated computer rankings in favor of Texas from four to five after TCU dominated previously 16th BCS rated Utah while Texas beat Baylor who has a losing record. 

Also, Cincinnati is still third in the standings and stayed the same from last week to this week.  Even though they eeked out a 24-21 win over West Virginia; well at least they were ranked unlike Baylor.

Go Figure?

All of this is a moot point, because for TCU to get to the BCS title game they need help with a Texas, Alabama, or Florida loss.  However, Alabama and Florida must lose pre-SEC title matchup, and who knows they may slip up since they both have that spot clinched.

Star-divide

Also, New Mexico will be a poll killer just like it did to Utah two weeks ago did the same to BYU as they drop from 25th to 17th in the computer rankings.  Clemson could be TCU's secret computer ranking weapon if they make it to the ACC title game and beat top ten Georgia Tech.

TCU is assured a BCS berth by winning out against Wyoming and New Mexico, and those all seem a forgone conclusion.  However if TCU wants to fill in their triangle goal whic

 

h includes the BCS title then they will need help.

Each team ahead of TCU has a plausible loss ahead:

Florida: Florida State

Alabama: Auburn

Texas: Texas A&M and Big XII North Champion most likely Nebraska

None of those teams are ranked, however they are all rivals -- sans Big XII North opponent-- plus Texas A&M has won two of three from Texas.  Not sure if any will happen, but crazy stuff can happen in rivalry games.

 

BCS Harris Poll USA Today Computer Rankings
RK TEAM AVG PVS RK PTS % RK PTS % AVG A&H RB CM KM JS PW %
1 Florida .9833 1 1 2793 .9800 1 1460 .9898 1 25 24 24 24 25 25 .980
2 Alabama .9521 2 3 2694 .9453 3 1388 .9410 2 24 25 25 25 23 23 .970
3 Texas .9261 3 2 2711 .9512 2 1397 .9471 4 23 23 23 21 21 21 .880
4 TCU .8685 4 4 2479 .8698 4 1277 .8658 5 21 22 21 22 22 22 .870
5 Cincinnati .8536 5 5 2349 .8242 5 1219 .8264 3 22 21 22 23 24 24 .910
6 Boise State .7950 6 6 2317 .8130 6 1183 .8020 7 20 20 19 19 18 19 .770
7 Georgia Tech .7716 7 7 2168 .7607 7 1127 .7641 6 19 19 20 20 20 20 .790
8 LSU .6648 8 10 1813 .6361 10 956 .6481 8 18 18 14 17 19 18 .710
9 Pittsburgh .6569 12 9 1895 .6649 9 997 .6759 10 16 11 16 16 15 16 .630
10 Ohio State .6495 11 8 1960 .6877 8 1019 .6908 11 15 16 17 13 8 13 .570
11 Oregon .6265 13 11 1699 .5961 11 875 .5932 9 17 17 18 18 17 17 .690
12 Oklahoma State .4708 19 13 1408 .4940 13 750 .5085 15 12 13 12 7 2 10 .410
13 Iowa .4529 10 14 1176 .4126 15 584 .3959 12 14 14 15 10 12 15 .550
14 Penn State .4127 18 12 1467 .5147 12 772 .5234 21 9 12 10 1 0 0 .200
15 Virginia Tech .4036 21 16 976 .3425 16 558 .3783 13 11 1 13 14 13 12 .490
16 Wisconsin .3583 20 15 1134 .3979 14 630 .4271 19 13 5 11 3 0 6 .250
17 Stanford .3406 NR 17 946 .3319 17 516 .3498 17 6 10 3 11 11 7 .340
18 USC .2714 9 20 576 .2021 21 239 .1620 14 10 9 9 12 16 14 .450
19 Oregon State .2487 23 22 492 .1726 20 256 .1736 16 8 7 7 15 14 11 .400
20 Miami (FL) .1936 14 24 442 .1151 24 156 .1058 18 7 2 8 9 10 8 .320
21 Utah .1910 16 21 568 .1993 23 212 .1437 20 5 15 6 2 3 9 .230
22 Brigham Young .1874 22 18 793 .2782 18 404 .2739 27 0 8 1 0 0 0 .010
23 Clemson .1829 NR 19 578 .2028 19 274 .1858 23 3 0 4 4 6 5 .160
24 Houston .1150 15 23 484 .1698 22 229 .1553 26 0 0 5 0 0 2 .020
25 California .0935 NR 29 123 .0432 30 55 .0373 21 4 6 2 8 7 3 .200

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I was suprised to see the computers drop TCU too.

With games left against New Mexico and Wyoming they will probably continue to plummet. Here is what TCU and Texas’ opponents did yesterday.

TCU
Virgina – Lost 14-10 to Boston College
Texas State – Lost 30-27 to McNeese State
Clemson – Won 43-23 over North Carolina State
SMU – Won 35-31 over UTEP
Air Force – Won 45-17 over UNLV
Colorado State – BYE
BYU – Won 24-19 over New Mexico
UNLV – Lost 45-17 to Air Force
San Diego State – Lost 30-27 to Wyoming
Utah – Lost to TCU
Overall their opponents went (4-5) yesterday with no impressive wins.

Texas
Louisiana-Monroe – Won 21-18 over WKU
Wyoming – Won 30-27 over San Diego State
Texas Tech – Lost 24-17 over Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State- Won 24-17 over Texas Tech
Colorado – Lost 17-10 to Iowa State
UTEP – Lost 35-31 to SMU
Oklahoma – Won 65-10 over Texas A&M
Missouri – Won 38-12 over Kansas State
UCF – Won 37-32 over Houston
Baylor – Lost to Texas
Overall their opponents went (5-5) also, but UCF had a big win over Houston

That evidence isn’t too strong, but slightly does favor Texas. I wonder if TCU would be ahead of Texas in the computers if Houston would have beat UCF?

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by Michael Rueckert on Nov 15, 2009 8:24 PM PST reply actions  

one thing in tcu's favor is that clemson and smu can win their respective conferences

houston’s loss put smu in driver seat of conf. usa cg. clemson just needs to beat virginia or maryland to get there. let’s hope clemson and smu win their conferences. tcu has beaten 3 ranked teams. texas one but by the end of season it will probably be two. still that is 3-2 in favor of tcu.

yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 16, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions  

good points

I would think a head to head win would count more, but who knows how those computers work

by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 16, 2009 5:01 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

i think both wyoming and k-state each have 5 wins?

it would help it wyoming beats colorado state for 5 mwc teams to get to six wins. k-state has neberaska next and i saw k-state get destroyed by a medicore mizzou team at home. i say nebraska wins easily. another thing, i find it interesting that when utah crushed n.m they fell in bcs poll and when byu beat them by five points they moved up. hopefully the tcu game vs n.m. goes the way of the byu movement and not utah’s

yes i am obsessive, obnoxious, in your face and all about covering the spread. those are my good qualities.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 16, 2009 11:01 AM PST up reply actions  

I have a computer poll, so let me explain how a team can drop after such a game.

I personally have TCU #4 in my computer poll, but I think I can shed some light on how a team can beat someone like Utah, and not gain.

When the computer does the rankings, it looks at the strength of the opponents for the entire year. Most also take into account games not played as part of the overall SoS.

So you have Utah who was a 1 loss team. But after the game, they become a 2 loss team. Meaning, some of the value of the Utah game is lost in things. Thus, TCU losses a little bit in the computers as a result.

Take a team like baylor. Not to much is expected of them, and so they were already low rated. Thus, they lose and it’s not a big deal.

Also, you TCU fans have got to quit talking about the “top 25 wins” as if they mean something. They really don’t. Those are great games for TCU, no doubt. But the rest of the schedule also matters. You have to look at the overall average of the entire schedule. What hurts TCU is all those games you have against extremely low ranked teams(talking probably not in the top 100). Meanwhile, Texas may only have 1 “top 25 win”, but the rest of the teams they play are likely top 50 candidates in most cases.

If you guys could just get 1 more game added to the end of the season against a top10 team, it would help you so much, enough that you might even get considered for the national championship game even without 1 loss of the top teams. I hope your coach takes note of that in the future when you schedule games. TCU looks tough, and it’s a shame you guys don’t really have a chance at the championship. But you just gotta play an overall tougher schedule.

I’m an Alabama fan, but I’m a sucker for the small underdogs going big.

by cal n on Nov 16, 2009 3:29 PM PST reply actions  

computers

I know its opponents and opponents opponents SOS, but Clemson won as did SMU. Those should help some, but I guess the Big XII schedule that Baylor is part of what counter acted TCUs opponents schedule.

by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 16, 2009 4:43 PM PST up reply actions  


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