Twenty Point Line for TCU is Ludicrous

by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 11, 2009 5:31 AM PST in Mountain West Football

This line started at 16 and my thought is that it would go down with people taking action on Utah, but the next day the line jumped up to 17 or 17.5 depending where you looked. As of Wednesday morning the line is 20 points! That is a lot of points and there is no way I can see it getting any hire. Vegas is usually right on with the line, but is TCU that much better then Utah?

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These Utes are not Wyoming or San Diego State they are good teams, and the only reason I can think for the points is because of the BYU outcome which has swayed the odds makers and gamblers alike. Utah is the most athletic team TCU has played and will play -- unless they qualify for a BCS game -- with the next closest being Clemson who TCU snuck by 14-10.

I am not advocating betting or anything, but just saying this is going to be a close game. If TCU wins it will be no more then 13 points, nad if Utah wins it will probably be by seven or less. Just a thought.

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The only way TCU wins by more than two touchdowns is if they finish +2 or more in turnovers. This is a dangerous game for TCU, not only because Utah is a team that they have historically done poorly against, but also because late in the season games with conference championships on the line are typically where you’ll see TCU blow it (LT’s last year, Southern Miss in 2003). I think TCU will win, but I think it’ll be more of a 24-13 game than a BYU level shellacking.

by HawkeyedFrog on Nov 11, 2009 5:56 AM PST reply actions

TCU

Only weakness is fumbles so I do not see them going plus two.

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by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 11, 2009 9:06 AM PST up reply actions

Quite true, but a nightmare Frog defense against a Freshman Utah QB in a rowdy road stadium (it’s sold out! Really!) has a chance to produce a good number of turnovers as well. Particularly if Hughes gets a sack early, it could force hurried throws throughout the night.

by HawkeyedFrog on Nov 11, 2009 5:30 PM PST up reply actions

Jeremy, keep in mind that Vegas is not predicting the outcome.

The line is meant to predict how the betters will bet. They want to set the line so there’s equal action on both sides. I agree, only a moron would take TCU +20, but there are a lot of morons in this town. If people are planning on betting, time to take Utah with the points.

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by displacedute on Nov 11, 2009 7:56 AM PST reply actions

Yes

But the line went UP from 16 which is a mistake. I know Vegas wants action on both sides which is why I think it should have started around 11.5-13. That would be more enticing then 16 or now 20.

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by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 11, 2009 9:06 AM PST up reply actions

But they were right to start it at 16 if the line went up from there.

I was shocked by the initial line, but it was the right call if most of the money’s been on the Frogs. If they’d started at 11.5 nobody would have taken the Utes at that price. I’m just surprised more people aren’t taking the Utes at 16. That seems like an easy pick to me, but i know the teams better than most of the idiots who see TCU 6-2 ATS and crushing teams and Utah 3-6 ATS.

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by displacedute on Nov 11, 2009 11:30 AM PST up reply actions

your absolutely right on that one

80% of the time when everybody is betting on the favorite(tcu) like that they don’t cover. that is how the sportsbooks stay in business. the gambling public is looking at tcu’s 4 straight covers and the last three were destructions. they were against weak teams except byu who is at least a good team. utah is 3-6 ats. tcu is 6-2. i’ve got utah at 19 points and if it goes to 21 i will double dip.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 11, 2009 9:38 AM PST up reply actions

Still 20 everywhere I looked. I can't imagine it moving up from there, since it's been stable all day.

Of course, I was surprised before.

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by displacedute on Nov 11, 2009 11:31 AM PST up reply actions

watch the last hour before game time

it might get to 21 points, than everybody will take utah and it will drop back to 19 points.

by wolfmanshowlforever on Nov 11, 2009 12:03 PM PST up reply actions

Agreed, bet the house on the Utes!

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by Michael Rueckert on Nov 11, 2009 1:59 PM PST reply actions

I'm going to go ahead and disagree with everyone.

I don’t think it will be close.

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by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 11, 2009 6:50 PM PST reply actions

why

and what score do you predict.

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by Jeremy Mauss on Nov 11, 2009 7:08 PM PST up reply actions

Utah has a good defense

but I don’t think the offense will be able to do much, especially with a young QB even though he’s looked really good.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Nov 11, 2009 7:59 PM PST up reply actions

I'd like some of what you're smoking...

Both offenses produced relatively the same against AFA. Utah’s D is good, so that implies that TCU’s O won’t be able to do much either.

I pick the Utes in a close one…a la 2008.

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by Hockey Beard in SLC on Nov 12, 2009 9:48 AM PST up reply actions