The first official BCS standings are out and not too many surprise from where the teams are ranked, but there are with the computer polls. Before we get into that TCU is 7th, BYU 16th, and Utah at a surprise 18th. With so much football left to be played it is hard to go game by game and see who will be ranked where.
The computers are a bit surprising, because undefeated Iowa and Cincinnati are getting love by being ranked third and fourth. USC is a distant 11th by the compters, but should make ground with games against Oregon and Arizona who is not ranked in either the coaches or Harris poll, but is 22nd in the BCS polls because of more computer love.
Boise State who's schedule gets weaker by week is getting a solid computer ranking at five mostly from the Oregon win, but expect that number to drop some as the weeks go by. BYU is getting nothing from the computers where three of them do not even have BYU ranked and average out to 25th; while the Utes who have a better loss are 14th compared to the Cougars. Looks like that Florida State loss will haunt BYU even more then expected.
All that could change with the TCU/BYU matchup this week, and with GameDay coming to Provo the tilt is getting much more hype. TCU is eighth in the computers and if BYU were to win that game they certainly would get a big boost from all the rankings and move closer to the coveted top 12 spot that could guarantee them an auto bid; however Boise State would still need to lose.
Now if TCU were to beat BYU who was 16th would that be enough to get them up a spot or two even if USC wins and TCU could/should jump idle Iowa. To me all five non-BCS schools in the rankings have a shot: Boise State, BYU, Houston, TCU, and Utah. The front runners are TCU and Boise, but TCU has a slight edge because of their tougher schedule down the stretch. For the other three schools they need TCU and Boise to lose.
If Boise does lose a game then the slot would go to the Mountain West school that goes undefeated in conference play. TCU obviously would get the nod then, because they would be 12-0 and currently are all ready in the automatic qualifying range.
If BYU were to go 8-0 in Mountain West play, they would have a win over a top ten TCU, and a top 15 Utah team --if Utah keeps winning before their final matchup.
Utah which currently is behind Houston, but again has two teams that will be in the top 25 when they play, and that would be enough to jump Houston; even if Houston wins C-USA which would give them a 12-1 record.
Houston would need to win out and hope that the Mountain West champ has a conference loss. That would mean the MWC champ would have two losses overall with the exception of TCU who would be 11-1. The jump over a one loss TCU might be difficult but not an impossible feat.
It looks like an undefeated regular season Mountain West champ will be in the BCS whether it be BYU, TCU, or Uth there is still a lot of football to be played with this being the midway point, and anything can happen.
Below are the abbreviated rankings and an expanded rankings that include all the computer averages. The latter picture is a bit fuzzy but if you click on that if expands to a much clearer picture.
|BCS Standings - Updated: October 18, 2009|