Early BCS Rankings

by Jeremy Mauss on Oct 2, 2008 7:57 AM PDT

The early returns of BCS computers are out and there are speculative rankings of what information is available. The big shocker with this is how much the computers like Utah with three that have the Utes in the top ten. Below is a chart with five of the six computer rankings inputed below.

Colley Matrix	Sagarin Ratings	Wolfe Ratings	Massey Ratings	Anderson/Hester	Billingsley Report
3. UTAH	8 BYU	N/A	4. Utah	14. BYU	10. BYU
23. BYU	10 Utah		19.BYU	31. Utah	17. Utah

The reason in my opinion that Utah is this high is because lack of information so far, and it could be the formula that includes a teams opponents opponents record. For example Utah played Michigan and then Michigan plays in the Big 10 and then Utah also play Oregon State who plays in the Pac-10 so those teams opponents records are included. Also, some computers take in information for up to the date on current results with strength of schedule and then some calculate the entire seasons worth. With limited information so far that is the reason why the BCS does not release its rankings until mid to late October, because rankings change a lot and look out of whack.

Here is ESPNs Bruce Edwards prediction of the BCS with the info so far, and the surprising result sees Utah ahead of BYU so far this year. One odd thing I notice is that Texas Tech is ranked 12th and they have played two FCS teams on the year, and USC is ranked higher then both MWC schools. As the rules state BYU would get the automatic bid, and Utah would be eligible in the at-large pool. With this info out I will be posting the updated computer and BCS rankings each week.

Mock BCS standings

Team	Record
1. Oklahoma	4-0
2. Alabama	5-0
3. LSU	4-0
4. Texas	4-0
5. Missouri	4-0
6. Penn State	5-0
7. Georgia	4-1
8. South Florida	5-0
9. USC	2-1
10. BYU	4-0
11. Utah	5-0
12. Texas Tech	4-0

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Comments

Keep in mind also that the BCS can only take 2 teams from each conference. With 5 BCS games, it’s only the conference guarantees that might prevent them from taking both Utah and BYU at this moment (assuming, naturally, that this were season’s end).

Of the top 12, Missouri and Texas Tech would be shut out by Oklahoma and Texas. Georgia would be shut out by Alabama and LSU. (Florida and Auburn, who I assume are lurking just beyond #12, would also be out.)

So in the 10 teams, you get the ‘guaranteed’:
Oklahoma
Alabama
LSU
Texas
Penn State
South Florida
USC
PAC-10 conference leader Oregon
Virginia Tech (current ACC leader)

That’s 9, of which 2 are well below the Utah teams. Adding to this: Boise State currently has a better argument to inclusion by merit than Oregon.

So if Utah and BYU are undefeated (with the exception of their head-to-head game), there’s a real chance both teams can make the BCS. It’s more difficult due to their strength of schedule, but it’s real.

by hooper on Oct 2, 2008 8:21 AM PDT reply actions

BYU over ranked? we should have a play off senario ! BCS should change to BS rankings system…..When Texas 5 and Oklahoma 1 had to play why should either drop dramatically and BYU or others that play non ranked teams move up when they play no one in the top 25? last week…..

by allen child on Oct 17, 2008 5:36 PM PDT reply actions